Rookie Hit Rates

I listened to a podcast recently in which the guest talked about his work looking at Dynasty League hit rates among rookie picks. He defined a “hit” as a top-12 finish for a QB/TE and a top-24 finish for a RB/WR. I decided I’m going to start tracking our rookie draft pick hit rates as well. We’ve only had two rookie drafts to date, so we are working with a small sample size so far.

I have my spreadsheet available in the HDL folder in case anyone cares to double check my work. I’ll be taking the first four rounds of each rookie draft and tracking the “hits” for five years. Note that we also have had FA and IDP involved in our drafts. For sake of the data I have ignored all veterans and defensive players.

We’ve had data from 96 rookies so far.
47 WR
34 RB
9 QB
6 TE

In just two years, we’ve seen 12/96 (12.5%) players hit. 8 of those 12 hit in their rookie campaign. 3 of the 48 players drafted in 2015 have hit both years they were eligible. Positionally it looks like this:

3/47 (6.4%) WR
7/34 (20.5%) RB
2/9 (22.2%) QB

Two years is a small sample size and for a player to hit that early is a big deal. So I don’t think any of this is conclusive, but I’m curious to see it take shape over the long haul.