2019 WNBA Team Preview: Las Vegas Aces
There is a saying that it’s better to be lucky than good, but the Las Vegas Aces will likely be both in 2019. They have not been good for several years, last making the playoffs in 2014, but that has given them the opportunity to pick first in the last three WNBA Drafts. This season, that luck — along with an eleventh-hour trade for Australian superstar Liz Cambage — has positioned them to be extremely good. A deep playoff run is now the expectation, with guard Kayla McBride declaring on media day, “We’re not rebuilding anymore. We’re here.”
2018 Recap [14–20 record, missed playoffs]
Last season, the Aces finished 14–20 and missed a playoff berth by a single game. They were still exciting to watch under head coach Bill Laimbeer, leading the league with 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes and finishing fourth in assists. Rookie forward A’ja Wilson, the top pick in the 2018 WNBA Draft, was the runaway Rookie of the Year, ranking third in the league in scoring, fifth in rebounding, and sixth in blocks. However, even with Wilson, the Aces finished second-to-last in 2-point shooting percentage (46%) and were only average at blocking shots (3.8 per game).
The last two statistics are almost certain to improve in 2019 with the acquisition of Australian Olympian Liz Cambage, who led the league in scoring in 2018 for the Dallas Wings. In exchange, Las Vegas sent point guard Moriah Jefferson, forward Isabelle Harrison, and two 2020 draft picks to the Wings. Las Vegas had been trying to acquire Cambage since January, when Cambage first asked Dallas to trade her, but the two teams only finalized the trade on May 16, ten days before the Aces’ season opener.
Projected 2019 Starting Five
Jackie Young [2018–19 stats at Notre Dame: 31.9 minutes, 14.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists per game]
Missing the playoffs in 2018 gave the Aces a chance at the No. 1 pick in the 2019 WNBA Draft. The team had the second-best odds of the four lottery teams at nearly 28 percent, and luck was on their side for the third consecutive year. Laimbeer used the pick on versatile guard Jackie Young, who recorded 12 double-doubles and two triple-doubles last season at Notre Dame. Young can also put up points in a hurry: in high school, she became the top scorer, male or female, in Indiana history. Laimbeer said earlier this month that he will use Young at three positions: point guard, shooting guard, and small forward. In the starting lineup, she will run the point so Kelsey Plum can focus on scoring.
Kelsey Plum [2018 stats: 25.5 minutes, 9.5 points, 4.0 assists per game in 31 games; shot 44% on 3-pointers]
Another No. 1 draft pick, Kelsey Plum is no stranger to scoring, either: she is the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer, notching 3,527 points in four seasons at Washington. In the WNBA, she’s been less prolific, but playing primarily at shooting guard this season will let her focus more on scoring. Last season, nearly half of Plum’s shot attempts were from 3-point range, which was great for the Aces because she made 44% of her threes. That boosted her effective field goal percentage to 57%, which ranked ninth in the league. Plum should have lots of room to operate this season alongside four other bonafide scorers in the starting lineup.
Kayla McBride [2018 stats: 32.3 minutes, 18.2 points, 3.9 rebounds per game in 31 games; shot 39% on 3-pointers]
McBride is a two-time All-Star in five seasons with the team, and last year was arguably her best. She set career-highs in both scoring and efficiency — no small feat for any player — as she averaged 20.3 points and had a player efficiency rating of 18.9 (well above the league average of 15). Her 3.0 win shares were also a career-high. Like Plum, she figures to benefit from Cambage’s arrival in the form of open space to shoot, even if she touches the ball a little less this season. McBride is younger than Cambage but has played two more WNBA seasons and will likely be one of the Aces’ leaders in the locker room and on the court.
A’ja Wilson [2018 stats: 30.2 minutes, 20.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks in 33 games; won WNBA Rookie of the Year and ranked third in the league in scoring]
Wilson was one of the biggest stories of the 2018 WNBA season, and rightfully so: she was an All-Star as a rookie and nearly carried her team to an unexpected playoff berth. Laimbeer put the ball in her hands a lot: she led the team and ranked fourth in the league with a 29.2% usage rate. She also led the league in two-point shot attempts, free throw attempts, and free throws made. Even before Cambage’s arrival, it was going to be hard for Wilson to replicate her 2018 numbers. But she’ll still be incredibly valuable to her team; I expect her win shares to be similar to last season’s 4.4 even if her scoring decreases, and she will likely play an integral role in any postseason run.
Liz Cambage [2018 stats with Dallas: 29.5 minutes, 23.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks in 32 games; 30.7 Player Efficiency Rating; WNBA MVP runner-up]
It’s no exaggeration to say that the Liz Cambage trade changed the landscape of the WNBA. Cambage led the league in scoring and finished fourth in field goal percentage (58.9%) last season; in one game, she scored a WNBA-record 53 points while shooting 77% from the field. Cambage’s 30.7 PER last season ranked 12th all-time in WNBA history, and her career offensive rating of 112.6 — which measures points produced per 100 possessions — ranks 14th all-time and 10th among active players.
Before the trade, Cambage was prepared to sit out this season, which would have been a loss for fans and the league as a whole. Instead, the 6-foot-4 Wilson and the 6-foot-8 Cambage will team up to form perhaps the league’s best post duo. The pairing could mean the difference between the Aces receiving a playoff bye or playing in a first-round single-elimination game.
Key Additions and Bench
Tamera Young [2018 stats: 26.7 minutes, 9.9 points, 5.1 rebounds per game in 33 games]
Young is the oldest player on the Aces roster, but she will likely come off the bench in favor of the youngest, Jackie Young. This will be Tamera’s 12th WNBA season, but only four of those have ended in the playoffs (2013–16 with the Chicago Sky). Her leadership and scoring off the bench will be important, especially early in the season as the team develops chemistry and figures out how to best utilize all of its weapons.
Dearica Hamby [2018 stats: 14.4 minutes, 7.4 points, 3.6 rebounds per game in 33 games; shot 52.6% from the field]
Hamby, who re-signed with the Aces during the offseason, will play a role similar to Tamera Young’s. She started every game in 2016, but came off the bench for all but three games in the past two seasons. She has embraced that role, improving her shooting by over 10 percentage points between 2016 and 2018 and increasing her production per 40 minutes in nearly every statistical category. She has never made the playoffs in her four WNBA seasons, but she could be the X-factor down the stretch and in the postseason in 2019.
Sugar Rodgers [2018 stats with New York: 19.6 minutes, 6.3 points, 3.2 rebounds per game in 31 games; career 35% 3-point shooter]
Trading for Rodgers gives Laimbeer yet another guard who can handle the ball and space the floor for Cambage and Wilson. Last season for New York, Rodgers took 72% of her shots from behind the arc. However, she only made 32% of them, her worst percentage since 2015. With the talent the Aces will have on the court, I expect Rodgers to take mostly threes again in 2019, shoot a better percentage (as many of them figure to be wide-open shots), and set a new career-high in assist rate by making the extra pass on the perimeter or feeding the ball inside.
Carolyn Swords [2018 stats: 14.4 minutes, 3.9 points, 4.7 rebounds per game in 26 games; led the team with an 18.1% total rebounding rate]
By the end of 2018, the 6-foot-6 Swords was the Aces’ starting center. Her biggest contribution was rebounding: she corralled 18.1 percent of all available rebounds and 13.4 percent of offensive rebounds when she was on the court, both team highs. This season, she will come off the bench to spell Cambage, and Laimbeer will look to her for efficient playmaking on the court and leadership off of it.
JiSu Park [2018 stats: 13.0 minutes, 2.8 points, 3.3 rebounds per game in 32 games] and Jaime Nared [2018 stats: 9.1 minutes, 2.5 points per game in 31 games]
Second-year players Park and Nared will look to carve out bigger roles in 2019. Park will look to improve her 39% shooting from last season and maintain her aggressiveness on the glass, as her 14.2% rebounding rate was nearly identical to Wilson’s 14.5%. And Nared, who ranked in the top 5% nationally as a senior at Tennessee in scoring, will provide even more depth, versatility, and shooting for a team that has those factors in droves.
Key Losses
Moriah Jefferson [2018 stats: 15.7 minutes, 5.4 points, 2.1 assists per game in 16 games] and Lindsay Allen [2018 stats: 14.9 minutes, 3.1 points, 2.9 assists per game in 24 games; led the team with a 27.5% assist rate]
The Aces lose two point guards off of last year’s team in Jefferson, who was traded to Dallas as part of the package for Cambage, and Allen, who had knee surgery in the offseason. The duo played the fifth- and sixth-most minutes per game in 2018, and while their numbers don’t leap off the page, they were both reliable ball-handlers with assist-to-turnover ratios above 2:1. Their absences give Laimbeer fewer options to bring the ball up the floor, which was likely a factor in the Aces drafting Jackie Young.
Nia Coffey [2018 stats: 13.8 minutes, 5.3 points, 2.9 rebounds per game in 28 games]
Coffey was traded to Atlanta as part of the series of trades that brought Sugar Rodgers to Las Vegas. Last season, Coffey was one of the Aces’ best at driving to the rim, leading the team with a 49.6% free throw rate.* (That means that she shot 0.496 free throws for every one field goal and indicates that she is good at drawing fouls.) This skill may be less needed on a team that has Wilson and Cambage anchoring the post, but Coffey also ranked third on the team with a 22.8% usage rate, which measures the percentage of possessions that ended with her shooting or turning the ball over. Losing a player who had the ball so frequently suggests that there is room for Cambage and Jackie Young to get touches on offense, which will be crucial to the Aces’ success this season.
*Among Aces players who appeared in at least five games in 2018.
Questions to Address
How long will it take the Aces to develop chemistry?
The Aces added several new players this offseason in Jackie Young, Cambage, and Rodgers and lost two point guards, so it will likely take them a little while to settle into their roles and figure out how to share the ball most effectively. There will be a learning curve for Young in her first WNBA season, especially given the added responsibilities of playing point guard. Compounding the difficulty is that Cambage was acquired so late in the offseason — in the middle of preseason, in fact. That gives her new teammates even less time to learn to play alongside her (and vice versa) than if she had been traded sooner. Kelsey Plum was also a late arrival to training camp because the Turkish team she plays for in the offseason finished its postseason on May 15. (She was actually flying back when the trade for Cambage happened.) Don’t be surprised if the Aces get off to a slow start, especially given that two of their first four games are against Atlanta and Phoenix, each of whom played in the WNBA semifinals in 2018.
Will Cambage and Wilson be able to play together?
It’s clear that Cambage and Wilson are both special players. In 2018, playing for different teams, they each finished among the top six in points per game, rebounds per game, blocks, free throw attempts, and player efficiency rating. But how much will their numbers suffer because the other needs the ball in her hands or grabs a rebound instead?
Laimbeer likes to play a two-post lineup and pound the ball inside, and both players can hit 15-foot shots, so theoretically there should be space and touches for both of them. Having the other in the lineup reduces the likelihood of either player being double-teamed, and having so many three-point shooters also makes it tricky for opposing guards to help down. The Aces have four players 6-foot-4 or taller and could keep as many as six forwards on the final 12-woman roster. In an ideal world, this size and depth would give Cambage and Wilson more rest than they got last season and allow the Aces to play a lethal high-low game. But more isn’t always better, and Laimbeer will have to game plan carefully to maximize the enviable talent on his roster.
Will what happens in Vegas stay in Vegas?
The Aces have a young core, with only one player (Tamera Young) born before 1989 and all five projected starters under the age of 30. That youth combined with the limited free agency in the WNBA means that Aces fans could see this starting lineup for years to come. The X-factor will be whether Cambage enjoys playing in Las Vegas and elects to play in the WNBA on a consistent basis. The Aussie played for Tulsa in 2011 and 2013 before stepping away from the league. She returned in 2018, a few years after Tulsa relocated to Dallas, but was again unhappy by the end of the season and threatened to sit out unless she was traded. Will the third city be the charm for Cambage? The Aces hope so — and they bet big on it, trading two young players and two draft picks. That would be a steep price if Cambage only sticks around for a single season.
Outlook for 2019
The Aces should have good representation at the All-Star Game, which they will host on July 27. By that point, they should be well on their way to their first playoff berth since 2014 and in contention for a top-four seed. Cambage and Wilson will likely both be in the MVP discussion; if Plum’s scoring increases as expected, she could be a candidate for the Most Improved Player award. In the playoffs, it’s anyone’s game: the Aces’ inexperience could cost them when the stakes are highest, or they could ride their talent all the way to the title. Either way, I believe the Aces will be the most interesting team for WNBA fans to watch in 2019, regardless of which team they support.
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