Can the Atlanta Dream Improve its Offense and 3-point shooting?
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After going 12–22 last season, the Atlanta Dream made a significant number of changes headlined by hiring Coach Nicki Collen. Improving an offense that scored the third-fewest points per 100 possessions in 2017 was a key priority.
What ailed the offense? Atlanta ranked last in the league in shooting efficiency last year, averaging just 0.98 points per scoring attempt including when sent to the line. They were the only team in the WNBA below one point per scoring attempt. Three-point shooting was a big driver of that inefficiency as the Dream made the fewest shots from behind the arc of any team and also had the worst accuracy at just 29% in 2017. The same was true in 2016.
As a result, Atlanta clearly looked to upgrade their long range shooting for the 2018 WNBA season. Last year, they had a significant number of 3-pointers taken by Layshia Clarendon (18 percent on 61 attempts), Damiris Dantas (27 percent on 98 attempts) and Bria Holmes (19 percent on 53 attempts). In fact, 47 percent of their 3-point attempts in 2017 came from players who shot 27 percent or below for the season.
Holmes was traded to Connecticut and is missing the season due to pregnancy while Dantas and Clarendon are both on track to take fewer than 30 shots from deep this season. Instead, the bulk of Atlanta’s three-pointers have been attempted by Tiffany Hayes and new addition Renee Montgomery. Montgomery is an 11-year veteran who sunk just over 36 percent of her treys last summer, slightly higher than her career average.
Collen also has the team taking more three-pointers this season. So far Atlanta is attempting 18.5 shots per game from behind the arc which is essentially average in 2018. The previous two seasons, the Dream never took more than 15.4 and ranked in the bottom third of the WNBA in three-pointers attempted.
Unfortunately, those shots are not yet falling. The team is hitting just 28.4 percent from deep through 4 games and rank 11th in three-point accuracy. The Dream and their fans should keep the faith, though. As the table below shows, if shots are distributed as they have been so far in 2018 but each player reverts back to the three-point percentage of their most recent season, the team would be shooting 33.5% from behind the arc, 5.1 percentage points better than they are currently.
33.5% would be a significant improvement from the 29.1% they hit in 2017. Coupled with their increased volume, Atlanta would then rank 6th in three-pointers made which would increase their offensive efficiency by 3.5%. At that point, the Dream can expect to be playing about 0.500 ball, a significant improvement from last year.
Should Atlanta count on their shooters reverting to form? In a 34-game season just a handful of unlucky bounces can drop the team’s three-point shooting by a full percentage point, but hitting 33 to 34 percent is well within reason for the Dream.
