Games to Watch Week 11
Last week’s upsets make a mess in the poll, and made our job harder, too.
This was one of the weeks where there were a bunch of really strong choices, especially after North Carolina took down NC State. That said, there were seven that stood above the rest. So, with apologies in particular to №17 West Virginia at №2 Baylor and №22 Iowa at Minnesota, here’s the games we’re looking forward to most this week.
#13 Florida State at #9 NC State— 1/16 at 6:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
NC State has a 30–16 lead in this series, but if you look at our Lobo’s Look comparison for this game, there are a LOT of categories where these two teams are within 0.6 of each other. One big one is the 0.5 difference in possessions per 40 minutes, which NC State “leads” 70.4 to 69.9, ranking 241st and 256th nationally, respectively. While neither the Wolfpack nor the Seminoles play fast, both teams are excellent at getting the most out of the possessions they do get. Florida State gets 1.11 points per scoring attempt, while NC State is just 0.01 behind at 1.10, good for 16th and 19th in the country, respectively.
While both teams capitalize on their scoring attempts, Florida State scores slightly more points per game, 77.2, than NC State’s 74.9. 58.3% of the Seminoles’ scoring comes from just three players, sophomores Kiah Gillespie, Nausia Woolfolk, and Nicki Ekhomu. Those three players also average 32.4 minutes per game or more. The good news for NC State is it’s pretty clear who they need to stop to win this game. The bad news is it’s clearly a tall order.
NC State has two players averaging double figures in scoring, but the Wolfpack‘s clear leader is sophomore Elissa Cunane. She leads the team in scoring with 17.2 points per game and also averages 10.6 rebounds per game, good for 23rd nationally. Not only is she the leading scorer, she is an accurate one, connecting on 64.4% of her two-point attempts and 63.4% of her overall field goal shots. While the Wolfpack have one clear leader, all five NC State starters are averaging at least 25 minutes per game and all five are in the top 33% of the country (out of 3,257 eligible players) in points per game. In what seems to be a theme this week (at least in terms of single player versus team), it looks like it will come down to whether Florida State can stop Cunane or NC State can stop the three-player combo of Gillespie, Woolfolk, and Ekhomu.
#12 Texas A&M at #11 Kentucky— 1/16 at 6:30 p.m. ET (SECN)
The series between these two teams is unusual because Texas A&M has the advantage, 3–1, in games played in Lexington, while Kentucky has the lead, 3–2, in games in College Station. The Her Hoop Stats ratings favor the Aggies in 2/3 categories, but it is CLOSE across the board. Texas A&M is 15th in overall HHS Rating, 17th in offensive, and 18th in defensive, while Kentucky is 14th, 19th, and 15th, respectively.
Texas A&M is the significantly better rebounding team. The Aggies are top 20 in offensive, defensive, and total rebounding rate. Those ranks are all the more impressive because they only have two players in the top ten percent in any of those categories: senior Cheah Rael-Whitsitt in offensive rebounding rate, and junior N’dea Jones in all three. Jones is also the only Texas A&M player in the top 10% in offensive, defensive, and total rebounds per game. The Aggies’ offensive leader is the name everyone knows, junior Chennedy Carter. Her 21.9 points per game are eighth in the nation, while her 3.8 assists per game and 1.9 steals per game are both in the top 10%. Carter went down with a leg injury in Texas A&M’s last game, but hopefully the Aggies get her back, because Kentucky has an equal, if not arguably even stronger, weapon.
Six spots ahead of Carter in scoring is Kentucky’s leading scorer, sophomore Rhyne Howard, whose 23.9 points per game are just 4.0 behind the leader, Rider senior Stella Johnson (for a further breakdown of her game, go here). Howard gets 41.7% of her points from beyond the arc and, as a team, Kentucky is 14th in the nation from that distance, hitting 37.9%. Howard is also the Wildcats’ leading rebounder, although she has just 5.7 rebounds per game, 514th in the country. Three other Kentucky players are averaging at least 4.5 rebounds per game. As a team, the Wildcats’ best defensive category is the same as their offensive one. Their opponents are shooting just 24.4% from beyond the arc, seventh in the country. If Carter can play, this certainly seems like it will come down to a battle of her vs. Howard, and which team can contain the other’s star. If Carter is out, a lot will be put on those secondary scorers. The good news for Texas A&M on that front is that they get 68.8% of their points from two, fourth-most in the country, so they should be able to work around Kentucky’s impressive three-point defense.
Northwestern at #15 Indiana— 1/16 at 7:00 p.m. ET (BTN+)
Let’s just say it: no one, Indiana mostly excepted, seems to REALLY want to win the Big Ten so far this year. After Iowa’s double-overtime defeat of the Hoosiers yesterday, every conference team has at least one loss. Northwestern has won three of their last four games, and two of those have been big wins over then-№12 Maryland and Minnesota, who has been in and out of the poll all year. In between those wins was a 26-point home loss to Iowa, itself a strong, 13–3 team, but a surprise given the dominance the Wildcats showed over the Terrapins. The NU/IU series is close, with the Hoosiers holding a 40–38 lead. While Indiana is favored in this one as well, the Wildcats will no doubt hold their own, and, clearly, are no strangers to the upset.
Northwestern’s best statistical categories are, by far, the ones that might be considered “secondary,” for lack of a better term, but are by no means unimportant, especially when you excel in them the way the Wildcats do. They are top-20 in the country in assists per game, turnovers per game, turnover rate, and steal rate. Northwestern is also fourth in both in assisted shot rate, at 71.7% and assist-to-turnover ratio, at 1.50. Individually, the Wildcats have three players whose individual assist-to-turnover ratio is in the 95th percentile or better, including sophomore Sydney Wood, whose 2.84 mark ranks 29th. Sophomore Veronica Burton is right behind her at 2.62, 44th nationally, while Burton’s 5.2 assists per game rank 30th, and her 3.8 steals per game are sixth. The Wildcats also have a stronger individual scorer than the Hoosiers in junior Lindsey Pulliam, whose 18.5 points per game rank 40th.
Individually, Indiana’s best scorer is junior Ali Patberg, with 13.0 points per game. The Hoosiers have six players averaging 9.5 points per game or more and are the much stronger shooting team. Indiana’s 48.3% field goal percentage ranks fifth, just 3.2 percentage points behind national leader Baylor, while its 55.3% two-point percentage is fourth, and just 3.9 percentage points behind leader Oregon. The Hoosiers are also better than the Wildcats at defending opponents’ shooting, as their 34.4% opponent field goal percentage is 12th nationally, while their opponent three-point percentage of 24.2% ranks sixth. Despite the differences in strengths, Northwestern and Indiana are just 2.6 points per game apart in how many they let opponents score, as the Wildcats allow just 53.2 while the Hoosiers allow 55.8. It will be interesting to see whether Indiana can connect at its normal pace or whether Northwestern will be able to disrupt the Hoosiers’ spread-out scoring enough to pull the upset.
#3 Stanford at #6 Oregon — 1/16 at 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Stanford will be looking to do what Arizona State just accomplished, beat travel partners Oregon and Oregon State in the same weekend, an impressive feat, especially if you combine the fact the Sun Devils were unranked entering the game and the Oregon state teams’ recent impressive play. The Cardinal are, on paper, a stronger team than the Sun Devils, and have a 55–11 record against the Ducks, but, of course, this game should be MUCH closer than that. Both Stanford and Oregon are in the top 10 in both overall and offensive Her Hoop Stats ratings, and the Ducks are in the top 10 in defensive as well, while the Cardinal are 11th.
Most of what Stanford does best this season is prevent the opponent from excelling at important components of the game. Their best category, rankings-wise, are their fifth-best 31.2 defensive rebounds per game and opponent two-point percentage. They are also sixth in opponent assists per game, only allowing 8.5, opponent assisted shot rate, at 43.2%, and opponent field goal percentage, at 32.9%. When they are the ones shooting, the Cardinal are 12th in field goal percentage, at 46.9%, and 14th in two-point percentage, shooting 52.7%. No doubt their impressive percentages at both ends of the floor will be tested by Oregon.
Oregon is arguably (with a hat tip/apology to new №2 Baylor and new №1 South Carolina) the most complete team this year. The Ducks are the best in the nation in a host of categories, including three of four “points per” categories (100 possessions, scoring attempt and play, and they’re second in game), two-point percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio. All of those numbers, and their numerous other top-5 rankings, put Oregon №1 in our HHS Offensive Rating, 3.9 points clear of second-place South Carolina. Individually, the name everyone knows is Sabrina Ionescu, but stats-wise, she shares the spotlight with Ruthy Hebard, who leads the team in points, all three rebounding categories, and two-point and overall field goal percentage. Ionescu and Satou Sabally are the second- and third-leading scorers. All three are shooting 59.6% or better from two, which will certainly test Stanford’s stout two-point defense.
#3 Stanford at #8 Oregon State— 1/19 at 3:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
Stanford is 57–9 against Oregon State, but, similar to the Oregon game, this one will be a lot closer than the record implies, as these two teams are REALLY close in a lot of categories, including being tied in margin per game at 21.1 and points per play at 0.92.
Oregon State’s is top-10 in a host of categories, with its highest ranking being its second-ranked 31.1 defensive rebounds per game. Individually, Oregon State has two players in the top 10 percent in all three rebounds-per-game categories: senior Mikayla Pivec and freshman Taylor Jones. Pivec is, without question, Oregon State’s overall leader, leading the team in per game points, assists, steals, and all three rebounding categories. What makes the Beavers so tough this year, though, is that she has strong help in most of those categories. Jones, as we mentioned, makes the top 10% in all three rebounding categories, as well as leading the team in blocks and coming in third in points per game behind Pivec and junior Destiny Slocum.
Individually for Stanford, sophomore Lexie Hull is leading the way in the most categories, including points per game and steals, plus total and defensive rebounds per game. Two players, junior Kiana Williams and freshman Haley Jones, within 1.2 points of Lexie Hull’s scoring average, while there are four qualified Cardinal within 1.5 total rebounds of her team-leading 6.3 per game. While Stanford has no individual rebounding standout, so many Cardinal pulling down boards at a decent clip adds up to their ranking 10th in the country in total rebounds per game, at 44.1. It may come down to whether Stanford can stop Pivec or if the Cardinal’s ability to share the wealth is too much for Oregon State.
We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Northwestern at Indiana, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
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All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through January 12. AP rankings are up to date as of the January 13 poll.
