Games to Watch Week 5
A week of Challenges
Both the Big Ten/ACC and Big 12/SEC Challenges are this week, and it made for a tricky week to pick games, as teams are getting their final tune-ups before the conference season begins in earnest. Another bonus of all the good action is that every game on our list this week is on TV!
#14 Indiana at #21 Miami (FL)— 12/4 at 6:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
The Hoosiers lead off Games of the Week for the second week in a row. Last week, we talked about how IU and №6 South Carolina are both young teams, and the Hoosiers’ opponent this week is similarly green. Miami, like Indiana, has ONE senior.
Last week, the Hoosiers got the contributions they needed from some upperclassmen to knock off the Gamecocks. Senior Brenna Wise and redshirt junior Ali Patberg led the way in the South Carolina win with 16 points apiece, while Patberg added 16 again in the 15-point loss to №7 Baylor, good for second in the game behind freshman Grace Berger. The Hoosiers now have four players averaging double figures on the season: Berger, Patberg, Wise, and freshman Mackenzie Holmes. The fact that the Hoosiers seem to be rounding into form is bad news both for the Hurricanes and for IU’s upcoming Big Ten foes.
Miami, like Indiana, is making a second-consecutive appearance in our Games to Watch. The Hurricanes dropped their GOTW matchup to №5 Oregon State, 73–57, as the Beavers managed to hold leading scorer Beatrice Mompremier to 13 points, five below her season average. The Hurricanes then took on fellow Miami (OH), defeating the RedHawks 80–62, and breaking their two-game losing streak. As she has all season, Mompremier is leading the way for Miami with 18.1 points per game and 8.9 rebounds per game. The Hurricanes have three other players averaging double figures, while their second-leading rebounder, sophomore Jamir Huston, is 3.9 rebounds behind Mompremier. Miami will need contributions from all of them to beat Indiana.
#9 Maryland at #13 NC State— 12/5 at 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Our Lobo’s Look comparison of these two teams shows a lot of green on both sides, which means both teams have a lot of stats in the top 33% of the country. This is the game of the week, at least according to rankings, and it shows in the stats. Both the Terrapins and Wolfpack are strong across the board, partially due to the fact that, unlike Indiana and Miami, they have four (Maryland) or five (NC State) seniors on their squads.
While Maryland has four seniors, it is sophomore Shakira Austin leading the way for the Terrapins. Austin is leading the team in points, rebounds, and blocks per game, while freshman Ashley Owusu leads the team in assists. Her 5.6 assists per game rank 27th in the country. Assists are also Maryland’s strongest suit as a team. Their 20.0 assists per game are 10th in the country, while their 1.54 assist-to-turnover ratio is eighth.
That strong assist-per-game number for Maryland will be tested in this game, as NC State is holding opponents to 8.1 assists per game, good for eighth in the country. That said, the Wolfpack’s strongest suit is no doubt the defensive glass, as their 35.1 defensive rebounds per game are second in the country. NC State has THREE players with at least 40 defensive rebounds: sophomore Elissa Cunane (57), freshman Jada Boyd (41), and junior Kayla Jones (40). There are only 103 players in the nation with at lest that many, out of 4,236 qualified players. The Wolfpack also rank 10th in the country in total rebounds per game with 46.5, despite grabbing only 11.4 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 211th.
#19 Michigan State at #8 Florida State — 12/5 at 8:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
Michigan State’s only loss on the season is a two-point heartbreaker to newly-ranked №25 LSU, a team Florida State defeated by eight. Other than against the Tigers, both the Spartans and Seminoles are outscoring opponents by 27.7 and 32.0 points, respectively, impressive margins that would be good for top-10 in the country.
Since the LSU loss, the Spartans defeated Kansas State, 65–60, also in the Bahamas. The Spartans are particularly good on defense this year, only allowing 54.1 points per game. That number is bolstered by their second-best-nationally 18.9% opponent three-point percentage, 0.5% behind leader Georgia Tech. Their 0.39 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio is also good for sixth in the country.
That stingy beyond-the-arc defense won’t be too much of a problem for Florida State, as the Seminoles only get 26.0% of their points from three, 205th in the country. The Seminoles have been strong in their assist to turnover ratio on the season, as their 1.31 mark is 20th in the country. The strong suit for Florida State this season has, like Michigan State, been on defense, as its 8.2 opponent assists per game is 11th in the country, while the Seminoles’ 20.2 opponent defensive rebounds per game rank seventh.
West Virginia at #10 Mississippi State — 12/8 at 2:00 p.m. ET (SECN)
Both West Virginia and Mississippi State are making their first appearances in our Games of the Week. Both teams are good at limiting opponent points: the Mountaineers are only allowing 72.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulldogs are allowing 75.6, good for 13th and 28th in the country, respectively. Both teams are also strong on the glass, each ranking in the top 20 in either defensive (West Virginia, sixth, 78.6%) or offensive (Mississippi State, 19th, 41.8%) rebounding rate, even though they have just one player between them averaging double-figure rebounds, Mississippi State sophomore Jessika Carter.
Not only are Mountaineers especially strong on the defensive glass, they do a good job preventing their opponents from getting rebounds at all, as their 29.2 opponent rebounds per game is fifth nationally. The Mountaineers, as mentioned above, have zero players averaging double figures in rebounds, and only two scoring in double figures (redshirt junior Kysre Gondrezick and redshirt senior Tynice Martin), which makes their strong numbers across the board even more impressive.
Mississippi State is similarly strong as a team across multiple categories, but they also have a clear leader in Carter. Her 11.3 rebounds per game are good for 17th in the country, while her 2.6 blocks per game are 21st. Her 15.1 points per game are also a major contribution to the Bulldogs’ nation-leading 89.2 points per game, second-ranked 116.4 points per 100 possessions, and third-ranked 32.2 margin per game.
Notre Dame at #4 UConn— 12/8 at 4:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Notre Dame and UConn have played nine times since 2014, with two of those meetings coming in the national semifinals and two coming in the national title game. The Huskies have won seven of those nine meetings.
Notre Dame’s roster losses are well-documented, including by us, and the Irish have struggled this season. Their five wins have come against teams with a combined 16–20 record, while their four losses have come to teams with a 23–5 record. Five Irish are averaging at least 30 minutes per game, and four are averaging at least 13 points per game, led by sophomore Katlyn Gilbert’s 14.9 and freshman Anaya Peoples’ 14.0.
UConn is undefeated on the season, and their opponents have a combined record of 25–21. They’re also doing a good job spreading the wealth, as the Huskies have three players averaging at least 13 points per game, led by Megan Walker’s 20.3 points per game, which is tied for 19th in the country. On the other side of the ball, Olivia Nelson-Ododa has moved into third place nationally in blocks per game, with 4.7, after a seven-block performance in the Huskies’ 75–37 win over Dayton.
We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Indiana vs. Miami. Have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
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All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through December 1. AP rankings are up to date as of the December 2 poll.
