Games to Watch Week 6

A week after playing №1, Ohio State has to do it again.

This was an interesting week to pick games, because initially when we were looking at games for this piece on Monday/Tuesday, there was one clear choice (Louisville at Kentucky) and then a lot of solid but somewhat underwhelming options. Then Thursday night happened. Ohio State at Stanford was already near the top of our options list, but the Buckeyes’ win pushed them over the top.

TCU at #11 Texas A&M — 12/11 at 8:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)

These two teams were in the Big 12 together for only two meetings, but have played 40 times over the years, with Texas A&M holding a 36–4 lead in the series. Both teams are solid this season, with Texas A&M’s 80–58 loss to №8 (then-№12) Florida State the only blemish on either team’s record. Defense will be the story of this game, as both teams rank 67th or worse in points per game, but are both top-40 in opponent points per game.

TCU is 40th in opponent points per game, allowing only 56.4. They are doing this by forcing opponents into errors in every facet of the game. The Horned Frogs draw 22.4 fouls per game, 9th in the country, and block 4.7 shots per game, 37th in the country. Senior Kianna Ray leads the way for the Horned Frogs in both steals and blocks, stealing 2.0 balls per game (tied with junior Lauren Heard), and 1.4 blocks per game.

Texas A&M is even stronger than TCU in preventing the opponent from scoring by 0.9 points per game, which lands them 32nd on the national leaderboard. They notch their strong opponent PPG number by being strong on the glass and smart in fouling. They rank 13th in the country with both their 58.1% total rebounding rate and 41.6% offensive rebounding rate. They only foul 13.9 times per game, 18th in the nation, and not fouling the shooter, only giving opponents 77 free throw attempts total, 15th. As they have been all season, the Aggies are led on the offensive end by junior Chennedy Carter, whose 22.4 points per game rank 6th in the country. TCU will need to focus their defensive efforts on her, as the next-highest scorer on Texas A&M, junior Kayla Wells, is 8.5 points per game behind Carter.

Iowa at Iowa State — 12/11 at 8:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

Not only is this an Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series rivalry game, but it’s a battle of two teams trying to bounce back from losing their all-everything players: Bridget Carleton for the Cyclones and Megan Gustafson for the Hawkeyes. Carleton scored 27.5% percent of Iowa State’s points last year, 11.2% ahead of second place now-junior Kristin Scott, while Gustafson notched 35.5% of Iowa’s, and the two players behind her, Hannah Stewart and Tania Davis, also graduated after the 2018–19 season. This year, both teams again have one or two players that will be key to their team’s win or loss in this game, and all season.

So far this season, Iowa is doing a solid job replacing those three players’ productivity, led by Kathleen Doyle, the highest-scoring returning player. Right behind Doyle’s 14.8 PPG are Makenzie Meyer’s 14.4 and Monika Czinano’s 14.2. Czinano’s 74.2% field goal percentage is fourth in the country. Doyle is also leading the team with 6.1 assists per game, 15th in the country. Assists are where the Hawkeyes have really shined this season as a team. Their 20.2 assists per game rank seventh nationally, while their 73.3% assisted shot rate is second, 2.2% behind leader Northwestern.

Iowa State is also strong at making the extra pass, as their 17.4 assists per game rank 23rd, led by junior Rae Johnson and freshman Maggie Espenmiller-McGraw, who average 4.7 and 4.1 assists per game, respectively. Sophomore Ashley Joens, who hails from the Hawkeyes’ hometown of Iowa City, is leading the team in scoring with 21.9 points per game, 11th in the country, and rebounding, with 10.1 per game, good for 37th.

#7 Louisville at #14 Kentucky — 12/15 at 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It’s another big game in the Battle of the Bluegrass, as both Louisville and Kentucky have been ranked six of the last nine meetings (7/10, counting this one), and the last time neither team was ranked was the 2009–10 meeting, a full decade ago.

Louisville suffered their first loss of the season last week, 67–60, to Ohio State, after leading by three at the half, but bounced back with a 85–57 win over Northern Kentucky. In the loss to the Buckeyes, the Cardinals were held 8.9% below their season field goal percentage, as well as 6.0% below their 20th-ranked 56.1% total rebounding rate, and 8.0% below their 11th-ranked 41.1% offensive rebounding rate. Before the loss, their biggest win by far was a 10-point win over then-№1 (now №3) Oregon in the US Virgin Islands over the Thanksgiving weekend. In that game, the Cardinals held the Ducks 15.0% below their fourth-ranked 49.2% season FG%, and 10.8% below their nation-leading 60.9% 2-point FG%. Defense in general, and rebounding specifically, has been the Cardinals’ calling card all season, as their 42.5% opponent total rebounding rate is 20th in the country, in addition to their abovementioned 11th-ranked offensive rebounding rate and 20th-ranked total rebounding rate.

Defense has also been Kentucky’s calling card this season, as the Wildcats rank fourth in opponent turnover rate (28.5%), sixth in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio (0.43), and third in opponent points per game (46.7). That assist-to-turnover number has truly been a team effort, as five different Kentucky players average at least a steal per game, led by sophomore Rhyne Howard’s 2.4 per game. Howard also leads the team in points, averaging 20.4 per game, 16th in the country.

Pacific at #10 UCLA — 12/15 at 5:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N+)

This game was the last one to make it in this week, edging out Purdue at South Carolina and Indiana at Butler, but we gave the slot to this one, thanks to how the teams stack up in our Lobo’s Look comparison and the fact that neither Pacific nor UCLA have appeared in Games to Watch yet this season. In our Lobo’s Look, the Tigers and Bruins are green (top-33%) in a lot of the same categories, and while UCLA will likely take this one, it might be closer than you’d expect.

Individually, the Tigers are led by junior Brooklyn McDavid, whose 19.6 points rank 26th in the nation, and redshirt junior Valerie Higgins, whose 7.8 rebounds per game, 3.4 assists per game, and 2.9 steals per game all lead the team. As a squad, Pacific is holding opponents to 9.6 offensive rebounds per game, 32nd in the country, and holds the 28th-best opponent assist to turnover ratio, 0.52.

Pacific’s strong assist-to-turnover ratio will be severely tested by UCLA, as the Bruins have the fourth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country, 1.61, supported by their ninth-best 19.9 team assists per game, and led by senior Japreece Dean’s eighth-ranked 6.7 per game average. As you’d expect for a team with a strong AST, UCLA is only allowing 5.1opponent steals per game, 16th in the country, for an opponent steal rate of 5.8%, good for 11th.

Ohio State at #1 Stanford— 12/15 at 8:30 p.m. ET (PAC12N)

Just after beating the then-№2ranked Cardinals, the Buckeyes have to take on the top-ranked Cardinal. In addition to the Louisville win, Ohio State came up just shy of defeating №2 (then-№4) UConn, losing by 11 after being down just two at the half. Statistically speaking, the Cardinal are stronger in most areas than the Huskies and the Cardinals, although it’s close in quite a few categories (See the Lobo’s Looks for the Cardinal vs. Cardinals, and the Cardinal vs. the Huskies).

Ohio State has used an impressive two-point shooting percentage of 52.6%, 16th in the country, and a strong block effort, blocking at a 13.1% rate and averaging 4.9 per game, 23rd and 29th in the country, respectively, to stay in (and win) big games. Freshman Rebeka Mikulasikova is leading the way for the Buckeyes in shooting, connecting on 56.2% overall and 57.6% from two, while sophomores Aaliyah Patty and Janai Crooms are leading the team in blocks, averaging 1.2 per game.

Stanford is even stronger in the block game than Ohio State, averaging 6.5 per game and blocking shots at a 15.5% rate, fifth and fourth in the country, respectivelt. The Cardinal have four different players averaging at least a block per game, with sophomore Lacie Hull leading the way with her 1.1 BPG average. Leading the way for Stanford in points per game is Lacie’s twin Lexie, who is notching 14.8 per game. Those points are big contributors to the Cardinal’s 83.8 per game average, eighth in the country. Stanford is also only allowing opponents to shoot 30.7% from field goal range, sixth in the country, something Ohio State will have to overcome if they want to knock off another giant.

We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Texas A&M vs. TCU. Have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.

We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.

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All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through December 8. AP rankings are up to date as of the December 9 poll.