Games to Watch Week 7
A strong week leading into conference play
So conference play gets started NEXT WEEKEND, but before that we have a week with seven ranked-vs-ranked matchups. When we picked which games to feature at the beginning of the week, based on the December 9 poll, it was six. We ended up picking the five based on a combination of collective opinion of the HHS staff and lowest combined AP ranking, so, with apologies to Michigan State and West Virginia, and a hat tip to South Carolina and newly-ranked South Dakota, here we go.
#2 UConn at #16 DePaul — 12/16 at 8:00 p.m. ET (FS1)
The former Big East rivals have met 17 times, with DePaul’s only win coming in 1983 on a neutral floor. The Huskies and Blue Demons have played each other 16 times since 2006, with two meetings (thanks to the Big East tournament) in 2005–06, 2007–08, and 2012–13. UConn has won by an average of 25.8 points, with the margin only slightly smaller, 24.3, in the nine games where both teams were ranked. However, this season, the Blue Demons are actually stronger than the Huskies in some important categories.
UConn, as always, is excellent across the board, but the statistic in which they lead the country so far this season (besides losses and win percentage, of course) is fouls per game and foul rate. The Huskies commit only 9.8 fouls per game, an 11.8% foul rate, and have only two players averaging more than two fouls a game. In addition, they’re second in the nation in Simple RPI and top-10 in all three of our Her Hoop Stats Ratings, offensive, defensive, and overall.
DePaul plays fast, and well, as they lead the country in points per game with 90.4, and are fifth in the country with 81.5 possessions per 40 minutes. Their shooting numbers are somewhat deceiving, as their 53.3% two-point percentage is 10th in the nation while their 34.8% three-point percentage is 66th, but the Blue Demons have hoisted and made the most threes in the nation, 353 and 123, respectively. They also have the most total assists in the nation, 231, and their 23.1 per game also lead the nation. UConn is favored in this game, but if DePaul can play at their fast pace, it may be close, or even an upset.
#23 Tennessee at #1 Stanford — 12/18 at 10:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
Women’s basketball fans are lucky this year because we’re getting games in almost all of the traditional rivalries. Tennessee and Stanford have met every season since 1988–89, including multiple meetings in 1990–91, 1992–93, 2003–04, and 2007–08. The Lady Vols hold a 25–11 lead in the series, but are 6–8 in true road games. Based on our Lobo’s Look, this game will be closer than the poll may indicate, as Tennessee and Stanford alternate on which team is stronger in some of the main statistical categories.
That alternating is partially due to the Lady Vols’ strength on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee is blocking opponents’ shots at a 15.7% rate, third in the country, and they are holding opponents to only 8.0 assists per game, good for sixth. Those efforts result in opponents only shooting 28.5% from the field, second in the country; 32.8% in two-point percentage, fourth; and 21.1% in three-point percentage, sixth. Those numbers, in turn, combine to give the Lady Vols the №1 opponent effective field goal percentage, 32.4%, and opponent points per scoring attempt, 0.70.
Stanford is also quite stingy on defense, ranking in the top 10 in several categories of opponents’ shooting. That said, while Tennessee is significantly stronger on the defensive side than the offensive, the Cardinal are equally strong, if not stronger, on offense. In addition to being top-10 in both opponent field goal and two point percentage, they are also top-10 in those categories for their own shooting. They are ranked ninth in our HHS Offensive Ratings, 11th in points per 100 possessions, and seventh in points per game. It will be interesting to see if those numbers hold up against Tennessee’s strong defense or if the Cardinal’s strength on both sides of the ball overwhelms the Lady Vols.
#20 Missouri State at #17 Gonzaga — 12/20 at 9:00 p.m. ET (WCC Live Stream)
Gonzaga is 17th in our overall HHS ratings, and Missouri State is 21st, while in the coaches poll, they’re 17th and 18th, respectively. They’re also within three spots of each other in three-point percentage (Gonzaga is fifth, MSU eighth), and opponent total rebounding rate (Gonzaga 14th, MSU 17th),. These numbers suggest that these two teams should give us an excellent game in only the fourth-ever meeting between the two squads, which Gonzaga leads 2–1.
Missouri State’s only loss on the season is to №4 Oregon State, the Beavers’ closest win of the season. The Lady Bears are seventh in defensive rebounding rate at 76.6%, led by sophomore Jasmine Franklin’s 23rd-ranked 7.5 per game. On the other side of the ball, as mentioned above, Missouri State is eighth in three-point percentage at 40.3%, led by senior Alexa Willard’s 33rd-ranked 53.7%.
Gonzaga edges Missouri State in the three major shooting categories, overall field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and two-point percentage. In overall field goal percentage, they rank sixth, at 48.1%, 3.6 percentage points below leader Baylor, while they are fifth from three at 41.0%, 4.8 percentage points behind leader Holy Cross. This game is going to be a battle of strong three-point shooting teams. It may end up being a matter of which team can connect on the most shots from distance.
#10 UCLA at #12 Indiana— 12/22 at 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
This series tiebreaker (1–1) should be another solid matchup, as indicated by the closeness in AP rankings. Despite UCLA’s higher ranking in that poll, according to our HHS rankings, Indiana is the stronger team across the board statistically.
The most obvious spot UCLA has the advantage over Indiana is in the passing game. The Bruins are fourth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, at 1.54 and, related, 12th in assists per game, with 19.1. Four different UCLA players have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.00 or better, led by sophomore Lindsey Corsaro’s 2.55. More impressive is senior Japreece Dean’s 11th-ranked 6.4 assists per game and 18th-ranked 38.5% assist percentage.
Indiana’s best player in all assist-related categories, junior Ali Patberg, trails Corsaro by just 0.03 in assist-to-turnover margin, and 9.6 assist percentage points behind Dean’s, while only trailing her by 1.1 per game. Patberg is the Hoosiers’ second-leading scorer, behind sophomore Grace Berger, who leads the team in three-point percentage. Freshman Mackenzie Holmes leads the way in overall and two-point percentage, coming at at 70.1% in both, as the forward has not taken a three all season. That impressive number is top-25 in both categories, and is, of course, a major contributor to Indiana’s top-five rank in those team rankings. Overall, whichever team can prevent the extra pass will have an advantage in getting the W.
#8 Florida State vs. #24 Michigan — 12/22 at 1:30 p.m. ET (Uncasville, CT; ACCN)
Mohegan Sun Arena is over 400 miles farther from the Donald L. Tucker Center, home of the Seminoles, than from Crisler Center, home of the Wolverines. That’s a lot closer to either than the last time these two teams met, an FSU win in the 2016–17 Paradise Jam, which was the first meeting since the 1984–85 season, a Michigan win. The Seminoles are favored to take this series tiebreaker, but since their tough loss to Notre Dame, which they led for three quarters, the Wolverines are on a five-game win streak, one they are certainly looking to continue with a big win going into conference play.
The Seminoles are 9–0 on the season, including a resounding 80–58 victory over then-№8 Texas A&M when FSU was ranked 12th. In that game, as they have been all season, the Seminoles were led by seniors Nausia Woolfolk, Nicki Ekhomu, and Kiah Gillespie. Those three were the only Florida State players to notch double-digit points in the game against the Aggies and are also the only ones averaging double figures on the season. The Seminoles score their 78.6 points per game, 23rd nationally, with a big assist from getting their own misses, as they are eighth in the country with a 43.1% offensive rebounding rate.
Luckily for the Wolverines, they are excellent this season on the defensive glass, notching a 13th-nationally 75.7% defensive rebounding rate and only trailing the Seminoles in total rebounding rate by 1.4 percentage points (58.4% to 57.0%). Individually, sophomore Naz Hillmon’s 8.4 total and 4.9 defensive rebounds per game lead the Wolverines. Hillmon also leads the team in scoring at 15.6 points per game. While Hillmon is the best scorer on Michigan by 4.4 points per game, Michigan will have to stop Florida State’s three-headed monster of Gillespie, Woolfolk, and Ekhomu.
We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for UConn vs. DePaul, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
*Paid/subscription service
If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year.
All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through December 15. AP rankings are up to date as of the December 16 poll.
