Games to Watch Week 8
This “week” is only two days, but it marks the start of conference play
We’ve hit the first week of conference play for some conferences. The Big Ten is the only conference that had ranked-vs-ranked matchups when we were picking, but there were a bunch of other tempting choices, despite the short week.
Michigan State at #14 Indiana — 12/28 at 6:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
This game may be a contest of “first to 60 points,” as both the Hoosiers and the Spartans are holding teams under that number, and they are only six spots apart, 16th and 22nd, respectively, in opponent points per 100 possessions. These two teams have met 76 times, including at least once every season since 1978–79, and the Spartans have a commanding 47–29 lead in the series.
This season, Michigan State is holding opponents to 58.6 points per game and are especially strong at keeping opponents from scoring from three. In fact, they’re third in the nation in opponent percentage of points from three, at 16.3%, and seventh in opponent three-point percentage, only allowing them to connect on 21.9% of shots from deep. On the other side of the ball, they are also seventh in steals per game and ninth in steal rate, 12.5 and 14.2%, respectively. Those impressive numbers are a team effort, as their leader in steal rate, freshman Taiyier Parks, is 88th in the country and their steals per game leader, sophomore Nia Clouden, is 60th.
We have talked in previous weeks about the individual excellence of Indiana freshman Mackenzie Holmes, and she is maintaining that excellence, as she still ranks fourth in the country in total FG% (69.8%) and 10th in two-point FG% (69.8%). That percentage also continues to boost the Hoosiers’ team two-point and total field goal percentages, as their 48.3% field goal and 55.1% two-point field goal percentage are both seventh in the country. As a result, Michigan State will need to keep up its impressive steal rate to keep Indiana from getting shot attempts, as clearly when they do get them, they are capitalizing.
#23 Michigan at #13 Maryland — 12/28 at 8:00 p.m. ET (BTN)
Maryland has won seven of the eight all-time meetings between these two schools by a solid but not overwhelming 12.85 points per game. The Terrapins are again the stronger team, as their ranking and third-place position in our Her Hoop Stats Rating would indicate, but the Wolverines are 31st in HHS rating and their RPI bests the Terrapins’ by seven slots. There are a number of statistical categories in which one team is strong and the other is not, and this game may come down to which team can make up the difference.
As they have been all season, Michigan is solid in most areas, but their strength is on the defensive side. They are 14th in opponent assisted shot rate, at 43.8%, 18th in opponent assists per game, and 20th in defensive rebounding rate at 74.3%. They are similarly good on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 26th in total field goal percentage, but rely heavily on the two-pointer. The Wolverines’ 31.6% three-point percentage is 148th in the country, while their 50.3% two-point field goal percentage is 33rd.
On the flipside, Maryland’s 42.2% three-point percentage is third in the country, and their best three-point shooter, senior Sara Vujacic, is shooting 52.4% from deep, 28th in the country. The Terrapins are also more balanced both across the board and from three. The Terrapins have three players who are 66th or better in three-point percentage (out of 2,037 qualified players), one of whom, sophomore Taylor Mikesell, broke both the team’s season three-pointers made and season three-pointers attempted records last year. There are five Maryland players averaging at least 10 points a game, and the team’s 48.4% total field goal percentage is sixth in the nation. That number is, of course, boosted by that 52.4% number from beyond the arc, but their 50.9% two-point percentage is 26th, less than 0.1% out of the top 25.
Syracuse at #7 Louisville— 12/29 at 2:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Cardinals lead this series 11–6, including only one home loss to the Orange, back in 2010. We know this isn’t a great stat for Orange fans, and for obvious reasons, I usually focus on the positives in this piece, but it was bright red numbers (bottom 10% of the country) that caught my eye while poking through our Lobo’s Look for this game. Louisville gets 61.7% of their points from two-point range, which is 32nd-most in the country. At the same time, Syracuse’s opponents get 45.7% of their points from that range, eighth-least in the nation. Improving either of those numbers could be a big help in securing a win in this game.
Syracuse, unlike Louisville, has a balanced attack, getting 44.6% of their points from two, and 36.7% from three. In addition, they pull down, on average, 44.5 rebounds per game, good for 13th in the country, led by sophomore Emily Engstler’s tied-for-13th 11.4 per game (say that five times fast). Syracuse is 6–5 on the season, and is coming off a tough two-point loss to West Virginia on a neutral floor, but their balanced attack and strong rebound game will help them as the season continues and conference play gets rolling.
Louisville’s best rebounder, senior Kylee Shook, is 2.6 rebounds per game behind Engstler, but the best on the Cardinals by 2.5. While Louisville may not have the balance Syracuse does in terms of how they score, they certainly spread the statistical wealth individually, as, despite leading the team in rebounds and blocks, Shook is the Cardinals’ third-leading scorer, behind junior Dana Evans. Evans, who also leads the team in free throw and three-point shooting, in addition to assists, is the eighth-best two-point shooter on the team, among those qualified, and the fourth-best overall field goal shooter. It will be interesting to see if Syracuse’s balanced scoring, or Louisville’s ability to share the wealth across the statistical board, win the day.
#18 Arizona at Arizona State — 12/29 at 2:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)
The Pac-12 is starting off conference play with some big rivalry games, as the battle for LA and Washington/Washington State are also being played on the 29th, but the first of two Territorial Cup games stands out above the rest. Not only is Arizona undefeated (we know, UCLA is as well), but Arizona State may be one of the best under-the-radar teams in the country. The Wildcats will be looking to gain series ground on their rivals to the northwest, as the Sun Devils currently hold a 34–64 lead in the long-running series.
Arizona is flying under no one’s radar. Not only are they undefeated, but they’re beating teams by 30.2 points per game, fourth in the country. The Wildcats are only allowing opponents to score 43.6, best in the country, and are arguably the best defensive team in the country. In addition to that top opponent points per game ranking, they are first in opponent field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage, and points per play. Not only does Arizona prevent teams from connecting when they do get a shot, they also do a good job of not even letting teams hang onto the ball. Their 15.4% steal rate is third in the nation, and their 0.42 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio is third.
Arizona State is one slot ahead of their in-state rivals in that opponent assist-to-turnover ratio, and the difference is 0.03. The Sun Devils are especially strong at preventing the assist part of that equation, as their 35.6% opponent assist rate is first in the country. Arizona State also excels at the one area of defense that Arizona may be weakest in, rebounding. Both teams are good to great on the defensive glass, but the Sun Devils pull down offensive rebounds at a rate 13.3% better than the Wildcats, and 1.1% better than anyone else in the country. Arizona State will need those offensive rebounds to combat the poor shooting percentages Arizona will undoubtedly force them into.
Marquette at #16 DePaul— 12/29 at 5:00 p.m. ET (BEDN)
This rivalry has been played 71 times, including the last three Big East Tournament championship games. DePaul went 2–1 in those title games and has a 44–27 lead overall. The Blue Demons are also favored in this game, and are the stronger team in most categories. One of the notable large discrepancies between these two teams is in possessions per 40 minutes, as DePaul’s 80.3 rank fifth in the country, while Marquette’s 69.6 rank 275th. If the Blue Demons can play at their pace, it may be difficult for the Golden Eagles to catch up.
In addition to playing fast, DePaul has a balanced and potent scoring attack. Their 88.4 points per game average is the second-best in the country. They connect on 44% of their field goals, 51.6% from two-point range. Their three-point field goal percentage is not as strong, 34.9%, but they get 40.4% of their points from distance, 10th in the country. Those two numbers may seem contrasting, but when you’ve taken 410 three-pointers, most in the country by five, and connected on the most by a margin of nine (both ahead of FGCU), even if the percent you connect on isn’t stellar at preliminary glance, threes are going to contribute a lot to your success.
Marquette has made 73 fewer threes than DePaul, and shot 218 fewer, but percentage-wise, are stronger, as their 36.5% three-point percentage is 30th nationally. Individually, their best scorer, junior Selena Lott, outscores the rest of her teammates by 3.8 points per game or more. This game may come down to whether DePaul can stop Lott, and/or whether Marquette can slow DePaul down.
We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Michigan State at Indiana, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.
We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.
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All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through December 22. AP rankings are up to date as of the December 23 poll.
