Games to Watch Week 9

Conference play really gets going

By the end of this week, nearly every conference will have started conference play, and a LOT of games that unfortunately didn’t make this list will be worth watching. Some teams are already lucky enough to have common opponent film, but it will become ubiquitous in the weeks to come. That will undoubtedly help teams prepare for their matchups against the teams they’ll need to beat to make the NCAA tournament.

#13 Kentucky at #4 South Carolina— 1/2 at 7:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)

Just like the all time series, a 34–31 Kentucky lead, these teams are pretty evenly matched, especially on the defensive side of the ledger. While the Gamecocks have a 4.4 percentage points lead in overall opponent field goal percentage, the Wildcats’ opponents shoot 3.4 percentage points worse from three-point range than the Gamecocks’.

Kentucky’s 24.2% opponent three-point percentage is 10th in the country. In addition to being excellent at keeping opponents from connecting from three, shooting from beyond the arc is also the Wildcats’ strength. Their 36.8% mark is 26th in the nation, while their 45.7% two-point percentage is just 118th. The Wildcats are also holding opponents to just 48.7 points per game, fifth in the country and four points better than South Carolina.

South Carolina’s strength is also on the defensive side of the ball, but the Gamecocks are better at defending the two than the three. The Gamecocks’ 30.8% opponent field goal percentage is fourth in the country, their 31.9% opponent two-point percentage is third, and their 34.3% opponent effective field goal percentage is fourth. Boosting those numbers are the Gamecocks’ nation-leading 8.8 blocks per game and 18.6% block rate. It will be interesting to see if Kentucky can connect at its normal rate from three and avoid South Carolina’s strong two-point defense/block game, or if South Carolina can use that incredibly strong defense to get the win.

#11 Texas A&M at #20 Arkansas — 1/2 at 9:00 p.m. ET (SECN+)

Despite Texas A&M’s higher ranking, if you look at our Lobo’s Look for these two teams, Arkansas comes out on top in a number of categories. The Razorbacks are 22–11 all-time vs. the Aggies, and 11–3 at home in Fayetteville. This will certainly be a tougher test for Texas A&M than a casual observer just going off of ranking or RPI might think.

Texas A&M’s only loss on the season was to №8 Florida State, but it was a 22-point one, 80–58. In that game, the Seminoles held the Aggies well below their strong season averages in nearly every important category. Texas A&M is 19th in the country in offensive rebounding rate at 40.3%; Florida State held them to 30.6%. The Aggies are 15th in total rebounding rate at 57.5%; the Seminoles held them to 45.5%. In addition to rebounding, Florida State held the Aggies well below their 72.8 season average points per game and held junior Chennedy Carter below her sixth-ranked 22.8 points per game.

In their sole loss, Cal held Arkansas to to 80 points, 6.9 below their fourth-ranked season average. Arkansas is, similar to Texas A&M, a very strong shooting team, only 0.3 percentage points worse than the Aggies in overall field goal percentage and 7.2 percentage points better from beyond the arc as their 37.6% from three is 16th in the nation. Arkansas will need those threes, and an excellent rebounding game, to beat Texas A&M, while Texas A&M will need to force turnovers and use their advantage on the glass to earn the win.

#8 Florida State at #23 Miami— 1/5 at 2:00 p.m. ET (Fox Sports FL)

There are a few rivalry games this week (we see you, Michigan vs. Michigan State), but this is the only one where both teams are ranked as of the December 23 poll, which is what we had to work with when picking games. The disparity in ranking is similar to the disparity in the series record, as Florida State holds a 45–15 lead overall and 17–7 lead in games at Miami. One of the few ways the Hurricanes may be able to gain an advantage is if they keep the pace up. Miami averages 72.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 137th in the country, while Florida State averages 69.9, 263rd.

Florida State may not be the fastest team on the floor, but it is one of the best, across the board. As you might expect from a team that plays relatively slow, the Seminoles rely on the two, getting 58.6% of their points from inside the arc and connecting on 52.0% of those attempts, 19th in the country. When Florida State does miss, it is seventh-best in the country at collecting those misses, with a 42.4% offensive rebounding rate. The Seminoles’ defensive rebounding rate is not as strong, as their 73.1% defensive rebounding rate is 38th, but their total rebounding rate of 58.5% is eighth.

Miami’s best individual rebounder, senior Beatrice Mompremier, averages 1.1 more total rebounds per game than Florida State sophomore Kiah Gillespie, and Mompremier’s 10.6 total rebounds per game are tied for 25th in the country. Mompremier was named the ACC’s Preseason Player of the Year, and leads all players on both the Hurricanes and Seminoles in scoring, offensive and total rebounds per game, and blocks per game. As a team, the Hurricanes, similar to the Seminoles and aided by Mompremier’s 34th-ranked 3.8 offensive rebounds per game, are better at offensive rebounding than defensive. Miami will need to speed up the pace and lock down on defense even more to pull the upset win over Florida State, as the Seminoles are better shooters in every category.

#18 Arizona at #10 UCLA— 1/5 at 3:00 p.m. ET (PAC12N)

The Pac-12 has two battles of unbeatens (as of publication) on January 5th, as Colorado and №3 Oregon State face off that day as well, but this game has two ranked competitors, so it gets the nod. UCLA has a 60–21 lead in the all-time series, including a 30–8 record in Los Angeles, and has won 12-straight, but this game should be closer than that record would indicate. The Bruins are scoring 3.1 more points per game than the Wildcats, but the Wildcats are holding opponents to 44.4 points per game, first in the nation and 10.4 per game better than the Bruins.

Arizona, as you might expect, is also only allowing opponents to score at a 29.1% clip, and 30.8% from two, both best in the nation. The Wildcats are similarly strong in two-point and overall field goal shooting when they’re the ones taking the shots, coming in ninth and 12th, respectively. Four qualified Arizona players are shooting 55.0% or better from two-point range, led by junior Aari McDonald’s 64.0%. McDonald is scoring 19.9 points per game, which is tied for 18th in the nation, and 5.7 points ahead of the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer, sophomore Cate Reese.

UCLA has a similar split among leading scorers, as junior Michaela Onyenwere is only one-tenth of a point behind McDonald at 19.8 points per game, and senior Japreece Dean is at 14.9 points per game, 4.9 behind Onyenwere and 0.7 ahead of Reese. Dean’s most outstanding category, however, is assists, as her 6.0 per game are tied for ninth in the country. As a team, the Bruins are also excellent at passing and holding onto the ball. UCLA only commits turnovers at a 13.8% rate, fifth in the nation, and their 1.50 assist-to-turnover ratio is also fifth. The Bruins will need to keep up those impressive assist-to-turnover and turnover numbers in the face of the Wildcats’ impressive defensive numbers in those categories, as Arizona is fourth in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio and 10th in opponent turnover rate. At the same time, the Wildcats will need to continue their lockdown defense to pick up the W. Either way, there’ll be one fewer undefeated team after this game.

#22 Tennessee at #13 Kentucky— 1/5 at 4:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

This rivalry has been played 67 times, and Tennessee has won 55 of those meetings, but Kentucky won the last one by two points and is favored in this one. That said, if you look at our Lobo’s Look comparison, there’s not a lot of separation between these two squads. Both teams are holding opponents to 54 or fewer points, while both scoring around 74. Something’s gotta give.

Tennessee shoots the ball at a better percentage than Kentucky, both overall and from two, and hold opponents to lower percentages in both of those categories. The Lady Vols’ biggest advantage, however, may be on the glass. Their 35.1 defensive rebounds per game are first in the country, while their 52.2 total rebounds per game rank second. Individually, the key player to stop will be junior Rennia Davis, who is not only Tennessee’s best rebounder but also its best scorer, by a solid margin of 2.4 rebounds per game and 5.7 points per game, respectively.

Kentucky also has a star player that will need to be stopped in order for Tennessee to win. Sophomore Rhyne Howard is averaging 20.9 points per game, 15th in the nation, and is also leading the team’s qualified players in steals and is second in total rebounds per game. Howard’s 20.9 points per game are 10 full points ahead of the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer, senior Sabrina Haines. Tennessee will need to stop Howard in order to have a chance, while Kentucky will need to key in on Davis to get the win.

We mentioned it above, but check out our new feature, Lobo’s Look, for comparing any two teams in the country. Here it is for Texas A&M at Arkansas, but have fun putting in whichever teams you want to see.

We know it’s hard to keep track of all the Games to Watch, especially the midweek ones, so we’ve started a Google Calendar. You can find it here, with the iCal link here. You can also follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.

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All stats (from Her Hoop Stats) are for games through December 29. AP rankings are up to date as of the December 30 poll.