Her Hoop Stats 2019 WNBA Mock Draft; Round 1
March is just around the corner, and you know what that means: it’s almost tournament time! It’s also time for WNBA scouts to start ramping up their efforts in preparation for the upcoming 2019 Draft.
What makes the 2019 draft class unique is that there are several juniors who — if they forego their final year of NCAA eligibility — would almost certainly be taken by a team with a lottery (top four) pick. That possibility alone makes this a tough draft to project, as the entire order is more or less dependent on whether these players decide to try for the WNBA.
Still, mock drafts are fun. They get discussions going and, for WNBA faithful, are a sign that a long and grueling offseason is finally coming to an end. Let’s take a look at a potential first-round scenario (with a second-round follow-up coming soon!), fueled by Her Hoop Stats.
- Las Vegas Aces: Sabrina Ionescu* (Oregon)
The Aces won the draft lottery for the third consecutive season (they’re 1-for-1 since moving to Las Vegas and rebranding from the Stars), so the rich are essentially getting richer here — especially if Oregon’s talented point guard leaves school early for the WNBA.
When looking at Ionescu, you could just cite her 17 career triple-doubles and already have enough to consider her worthy of being drafted first overall. But there’s more to it than that. Not only does Ionescu rank 19th in the nation in assist percentage, but she’s 17th in assist/turnover ratio; this is extremely impressive for someone through which such a high-powered offense runs. Factor in the 43.3% shooting from 3-point range and the 5'10" frame, and you’ve got all the makings of the WNBA’s next elite point guard. If Ionescu decides to declare draft eligibility, this is an easy pick.
2. New York Liberty: Asia Durr (Louisville)
To say the Liberty were a disappointment in 2018 would be an understatement. The 27 losses were by far the most in franchise history, and a core that had previously been a sure bet to carry the team to the postseason suddenly looked old and ineffective. A good chunk of that core has also yet to be re-signed in free agency, suggesting that it’s time for New York to more or less start over.
If they’re looking for that metaphorical shot in the arm, Louisville’s Asia Durr would likely be the right pick. The smooth lefty can put up points in a hurry, whether it be by driving to the hoop or nailing 3-pointers behind ball screens. She also takes terrific care of the basketball, ranking in the 98th percentile in turnover rate. Should forward Tina Charles decide to stay in New York, Durr would be an ideal complement to her.
3. Indiana Fever: Teaira McCowan (Mississippi State)
Though the Fever were the worst team in the WNBA last season, they have plenty of talented young pieces to build upon. Most notably, Kelsey Mitchell is going to be one of the league’s most dynamic guards for years to come, and Victoria Vivians boasts nearly unlimited shooting range from the wing.
What Indiana could still use is size, and who better to bring that than McCowan? The 6'7" center might be the most imposing interior presence in the country, leading the nation in offensive rebounding rate (22.4%) while also averaging 2.5 blocks per game. Her learning curve might be steep as she learns to defend in space, but Indiana isn’t in a rush, and the payoff on McCowan could be huge.
4. Chicago Sky: Jackie Young* (Notre Dame)
While Ionescu leaving early would almost certainly bump her up to the top of the draft board, it’s Young who could really shake things up if she declares. She’s not the Irish’s loudest or most famous player, but she’s probably their most well-rounded. Young ranks well above the 90th percentile in points per scoring attempt, effective field goal percentage, and assist/turnover ratio, and at 6'0" makes for an appealing defensive prospect as well.
Though Chicago already has a glut of talented athletes on the perimeter, if first-year head coach James Wade is committed to playing Gabby Williams at power forward, Young’s versatility would allow the Sky to get creative with their small-ball lineups. If she’s there at #4, Chicago should strongly consider her.
5. Dallas Wings: Kristine Anigwe (California)
With the Liz Cambage era all but over in Dallas, the Wings are going to be looking for another frontcourt player or two to put alongside Azura Stevens and Glory Johnson. Anigwe is an ideal fit here; her presence would keep Stevens and Johnson from having to play too many minutes at center, and she’d provide a soft-handed target for Skylar Diggins-Smith when the star point guard returns from pregnancy. Anigwe is also the best rebounder in the class: her total rebound rate of 26.1% leads the nation.
6. Minnesota Lynx: Alanna Smith (Stanford)
Is it finally rebuilding time for the Lynx? Maya Moore’s predetermined absence for 2019 might force their hand. Granted, they still have all-world center Sylvia Fowles, and guard Seimone Augustus looks like she’ll be giving it one more go, but don’t be surprised if this season is more about developing young talent than trying to win their usual 25+ games.
Stanford’s star power forward Smith would give them both potential and fit. The Australian national team member already has international experience, and from a skillset perspective, her 6'4" frame and outside shooting ability would be an excellent fit next to Fowles — something that the Lynx might want to emphasize later in the draft as well, considering that Rebekkah Brunson’s status for 2019 is also in doubt.
7. Los Angeles Sparks: Katie Lou Samuelson (Connecticut)
The Sparks are a bit of a wild card here. Star point guard Chelsea Gray still hasn’t been re-signed, they’ve got a first-year head coach in Derek Fisher, and while they once seemed to be the inevitable destination for Liz Cambage, talks on that front have gone quiet.
When in doubt, more outside shooting can’t hurt. There aren’t many more prolific snipers than Samuelson, who ranks ahead of UConn legends Diana Taurasi and Maya Moore in 3-pointers made. That she’s able to do this at 6'3" is an added bonus; playing alongside interior threats like Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike would allow Samuelson to shoot to her heart’s content.
8. Phoenix Mercury: Kalani Brown (Baylor)
The Mercury have been looking for a capable backup for Brittney Griner for a while now. At 6'7", Brown would be a logical choice for that. Though her per-game stats aren’t as impressive as they were last season (partially due to the emergence of Lauren Cox), Brown’s still scoring the ball quite efficiently; her 1.34 points per scoring attempt ranks at the very top of the nation. Simply put, once she gets the ball at the rim, she’s been almost impossible to stop. Drafting Brown would allow the Mercury to rest Griner with more confidence, and if surrounded by players like Diana Taurasi and DeWanna Bonner, it’s unlikely that she’ll get the constant defensive attention that she does at Baylor.
9. Connecticut Sun: Napheesa Collier (Connecticut)
Perhaps the most versatile player in this class, Collier is someone just about any team would be happy with. UConn plays just about as much “positionless” basketball as anyone, and Collier is a major reason why they can do that; she’s 6'1", she’s long, and she’s skilled. As the Huskies’ de facto center, Collier is shooting a ridiculous 65.1% from 2-point range, and while she’ll be asked to play more on the perimeter at the pro level, her frame and skillset will help her excel there as well. If she falls this far, Connecticut would be wise to scoop her up.
10. Washington Mystics: Arike Ogunbowale (Notre Dame)
There’s not much that Washington needs. They were able to extend Natasha Cloud and LaToya Sanders in free agency, although they lost Tierra Ruffin-Pratt to Los Angeles. That means there’s a backcourt spot up for grabs.
If Ogunbowale falls this far, it’ll be because of her size (or lack thereof) and questions about how much lead guard she’ll be able to play at the WNBA level. It certainly won’t have anything to do with her scoring ability; she’s at the top of the leaderboard in both field goals and free throws attempted per game. With Cloud and Ariel Atkins, the Mystics already have the size and playmaking on the perimeter to mask Ogunbowale’s deficiencies and let her focus on what she does best: putting the ball in the hoop.
11. Atlanta Dream: Megan Gustafson (Iowa)
Even if you don’t follow the Big Ten, it’d be hard to overlook the season Gustafson is having. Not only is she leading the country in scoring (27.4 points per game), she’s doing it on absolutely amazing efficiency numbers: a 70.6% effective field goal percentage and 1.45 points per scoring attempt. She’s also 13th in the country in total rebounding percentage.
While the Dream aren’t in sore need of a back-to-the-basket post player, it would be hard to find a better player than Gustafson if she’s still there at #11. Her footwork and touch around the basket will be an asset to whoever drafts her.
12. Seattle Storm: Tynice Martin* (West Virginia)
The reigning champs have just about everything: an MVP, all-star guards, versatility, athleticism, and shooting. So what should they do in the draft?
Martin isn’t as big of a name as some of the other juniors in the class, but if she declares, she could prove to be excellent late-first or early-second round value. There aren’t many better pure athletes at the guard position in this class, and Martin is an excellent rebounder for her position, ranking in the 91st percentile in defensive rebounds per game. It would be a “potential” pick for the Storm, but if Martin is able to fulfill hers, she’d be a spark plug off the bench for last year’s champions.
- Junior who may declare draft eligibility
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