Her Hoop Stats Starting Five: Preseason All-American Ballots
By: Megan Gauer, Jenn Hatfield, Hunter Hames
With the 2018–19 NCAA women’s basketball season fast approaching, there’s been lots of chatter about who the best players are this season. Our Her Hoop Stats contributors broke down their pre-season First-Team All-American ballots:
It’s not too surprising that we unanimously selected Sabrina Ionescu, who was a first team All-American last season. What might be shocking is that none of us have Connecticut forward Katie Lou Samuelson making her third first-team appearance (not even Megan, who is an avid UConn fan). We know this might make our picks a little controversial, but there are some compelling arguments for why other players deserve that spot. There’s more on this in our frontcourt discussion below.
The Backcourt:
Megan Gauer: I’m starting my first team ballot with Sabrina Ionescu (Oregon), the NCAA’s all-time leader in career triple-doubles. Last season, the “Triple-Double Queen” averaged 19.7 points, 7.8 assists, 6.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. All of those numbers fell in the top ten percent of NCAA women’s players.
Hunter Hames: While I can’t add anything new statistically regarding Sabrina Ionescu, I point to her time training with USA Basketball under Dawn Staley this summer as proof nobody needs to validate her on my preseason ballot. The University of Oregon junior already has an impressive resume, and time training against some of the best athletes in the world can do nothing but improve this triple-double threat.
I chose to go guard-heavy with my All American ballot, adding Asia Durr (Louisville) and last year’s NCAA tournament star Arike Ogunbowale (Notre Dame) to my selections. Durr, already a first-team All-American in her career, averaged 18.7 points per game and shot 41.5% from three while helping her team reach the national semifinal. Ogunbowale, who battled Durr for ACC Player of the Year, will be hard-pressed to top her final two games of the 2017–18 season. The Final Four Most Outstanding Player averaged almost 24 points per game in the postseason after averaging 20.8 during the regular season and hit several unforgettably clutch shots when her team needed her most.
Megan Gauer: I have to disagree with Ogunbowale. Her 20.8 points per game last season were impressive, but her scoring efficiency and assist rate only rank in the 78th and 61st percentiles, respectively. There are a lot of guards putting up better numbers in those categories. I would, however, second Asia Durr (Louisville). She’s an elite scorer and 3-point shooter, ranking in the top 5 percent in both points per game and 3-point percentage last season.
Jenn Hatfield: It’s hard to pick against any of those choices, especially Ionescu, who may be the front-runner for the #1 pick in the 2019 WNBA Draft if she declares. But I’ll select Missouri’s Sophie Cunningham alongside Ionescu. Cunningham averaged 18.5 points per game last year on a ridiculously efficient 1.37 points per scoring attempt (the second-highest efficiency in the nation). She also chipped in 4.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game and shot 45.7% from deep, besting Durr in all three categories.
The Frontcourt:
Megan Gauer: Napheesa Collier is definitely the less popular first-team pick for UConn forwards, but hear me out. Normally I would have both Collier and Katie Lou Samuelson on my list, but I don’t see the Huskies getting two spots on the pre-season All-American first-team this year. There’s a lot of open questions about this Connecticut team, which lost two starters (Kia Nurse and Gabby Williams) and an outstanding bench player (Azura Stevens) to graduation. They won’t open the pre-season polls in the top spot. The last time that happened (2016), UConn had no pre-season first-team All-Americans. They did however end up with two by March — Collier and Samuelson.
On the case for including Collier over Samuelson: Samuelson did edge out Collier in scoring last season (17.4 vs. 16.1 PPG, respectively). However, in addition to being in the top five percent for both PPG and PPSA last season, Collier is also an elite defender. Her defensive skills have in my opinion often been undervalued, especially when she was playing with the likes of Williams. But, Collier ranked in the 95th percentile for defensive boards per game, in the 90th percentile for steals per game, and in the 97th percentile for blocks per game last season. She is the better all-around player and the Huskies are going to need her talent on both ends this year.
Jenn Hatfield: I thought long and hard about picking both Samuelson and Collier at small forward, leaning toward Samuelson because of how her 3-point shooting (47.5%, 7th in the nation) and passing (3.8 assists per game) would complement the low-post superstars I pick below. Ultimately, though, I settled on Marquette’s Allazia Blockton. Last year’s Big East Player of the Year, Blockton averaged 19.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 2.8 APG. Despite having the ball in her hands more than 94% of players (27.9% usage rate), she was an efficient scorer, posting 1.19 PPSA and shooting nearly 40% from 3.
Hunter Hames: I also have UConn standout Napheesa Collier on my list. Collier has been a steady force over her three seasons at UConn. Not only is she a gifted post player, but her ability to stretch the floor (shooting 34% from three in 2017–2018) also makes it difficult for opposing defenses to camp out in the paint. Like Ionescu, Collier spent the summer going up against the likes of Tina Charles, Nneka Ogwumike, and Brittney Griner with USA Basketball, so look for her game to be even quicker and more refined for her senior season.
Jenn Hatfield: Speaking of Griner, WNBA executives are wondering whether Mississippi State’s Teaira McCowan or Baylor’s Kalani Brown could be the league’s next dominant center, and the two seniors are at the top of many mock 2019 WNBA Draft boards. Thankfully, I have room for both 6'7" standouts on my All-American team. McCowan has played in the past two national championship games for Mississippi State and averaged 18.2 points and 13.7 rebounds per game last year. She ranked in the top 3% of all players in points, rebounds, points per scoring attempt, and blocks per game last season.
Not to be outdone, Brown posted 20.1 points and 10.2 rebounds per game as half of a lethal Baylor frontcourt (with 6'4" rising junior Lauren Cox, who should also contend for All-America honors). She didn’t block quite as many shots as McCowan, but she shot better from the field and from the free throw line and also chipped in 1.7 assists per game to McCowan’s 0.5. She and Cox will be the keys to Baylor continuing its dominance in the Big 12 conference.
Megan Gauer: I also have Teaira McCowan here. Last season, her rebounding stats all fell in the 99.7th percentile or above. She’ll have an even greater opportunity to dominate as the only returning starter for coach Vic Schaefer this year.
Meanwhile, Megan Gustafson (Iowa) posted possibly the most impressive stat line in the country last season. She ranked first in both PPG (25.7) and PPSA (1.41). She also ranked in the top 10 percent in the NCAA in virtually every rebounding category and was an elite shot-blocker.
Hunter Hames: The post position was the toughest for me to pick. While I strongly considered McCowan, Gustafson, and Notre Dame’s Brianna Turner, the latter of whom missed last season after tearing her ACL in the 2016–17 NCAA tournament, I ultimately couldn’t have a first team without Kalani Brown. The reigning Big XII Player of the Year was dominant for the Baylor Lady Bears, ranking fourth nationally in field goal percentage and top 30 in rebounds per game. Her ability to score over a double team and play a killer high-low game with teammate Lauren Cox makes Brown almost unstoppable.
All stats are compiled from Her Hoop Stats. If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year.
