HHS Top 25: A Trio of Mid-Majors and Some Blind Resumés

Two mid-major teams (Buffalo and Central Michigan) made the Sweet Sixteen in last year’s NCAA Tournament. This year, multiple mid-majors could again be threats in March, but based on how those teams look in December, it might not be “madness” if they win a game or two. To our eyes at Her Hoop Stats, four mid-major teams look like possible top-25 teams through this week’s games: Gonzaga, Drake, South Dakota, and South Dakota State. Three of those teams ultimately made our top-25 ballot.

Here is the ballot that we submitted to the STI/Hoopfeed Top 25 Poll for Week 6, which covered games played from Tuesday, December 11 through Monday, December 17. Movement up or down from our Week 5 ballot is denoted in parentheses.

1. UConn
2. Mississippi State
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Oregon (↑1)
6. Baylor (↓1)
7. Maryland (↑1)
8. Stanford (↑2)
9. Tennessee
10. Oregon State (↓3)
11. North Carolina State
12. Minnesota
13. Syracuse
14. DePaul (↑1)
15. Iowa (↑1)
16. Drake (↓2)
17. Texas
18. Marquette (↑1)
19. Kentucky (↑2)
20. South Dakota (NR)
21. California (↑2)
22. Michigan State (↑2)
23. Gonzaga (↑2)
24. Texas A&M (NR)
25. Arizona State (↓5)
Dropped out: South Carolina, Missouri
Also considered: Florida State, Miami (FL), South Dakota State

No. 16 Drake, No. 20 South Dakota, and No. 23 Gonzaga are the three mid-major teams on our top-25 ballot. We ranked more mid-majors than the AP Poll (1), Coaches’ Poll (1), or STI/Hoopfeed Poll (2). The reason why is relatively simple: we believe that those teams have earned it based on their results to date. South Dakota entered our rankings at No. 20 after beating then-No. 22/24 Missouri on the road and by 13 points. In figuring out how high to rank the Coyotes, we compared their results with the teams near the bottom of last week’s rankings. Let’s do a blind comparison between four teams, just as you often see on television right around the time the NCAA tournament bracket is revealed:

How would you rank these four teams? We ranked Team 1 the highest because that team’s three wins are collectively the most impressive. Team 1 is South Dakota. Next, we gave Teams 3 and 4 the edge over Team 2 on the strength of their single best wins, against Oregon and Stanford, respectively. Team 3 — Michigan State — slotted in at No. 22 this week, while Team 4 — Gonzaga — followed at No. 23. We considered leaving Team 2 off our top-25 ballot this week, given that its collection of wins is not that impressive. However, losses by a combined eight points to Baylor and Louisville are nothing to sneeze at, and Team 2 — Arizona State — clearly showed it could play with the nation’s elite in those games. We dropped the Sun Devils to No. 25 this week, with teams like Gonzaga and South Dakota leapfrogging them.

(Are you wondering about California (9–0) and Texas A&M (8–2), the other two teams in our 20–25 spots? Check out this post for how we think about undefeated teams. As for the No. 24 Aggies, they got a big win over Oregon State on Saturday, but they also have a loss to Lamar University on their record, which is easily the worst loss of any team in the No. 20–25 range.)

Do you agree with our decisions from the blind comparison? What about our full ballot? Let us know in the comments section below or on Twitter (@herhoopstats), and check out our rankings on the Hoopfeed website throughout the season.

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