HHS Top 25: Conference Play Can Trip Teams Up or Lift Them Up
There aren’t many better ways for a team to respond to its first top-25 ranking of the season than by beating a top-5 team and conference rival. That’s exactly what Utah, ranked No. 25 in last week’s Her Hoop Stats top 25 ballot, did this week in a seven-point victory over then-No. 5 Stanford. Meanwhile, across the country, unranked North Carolina also defended its home court with a five-point win over then-No. 1 Notre Dame.
These losses prompted some big changes to our top 10 teams, headlined by Baylor taking over the No. 1 ranking. Here is the ballot we submitted to the STI/Hoopfeed Top 25 Poll for Week 12. This week’s poll covered games played from Tuesday, January 22 through Monday, January 28. Movement up or down from our Week 11 ballot is denoted in parentheses.
1. Baylor (↑5)
2. UConn
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame (↓3)
5. Mississippi State (↑2)
6. Louisville (↓2)
7. Stanford (↓2)
8. North Carolina State
9. Marquette
10. Oregon State
11. Maryland
12. Iowa
13. Texas (↑1)
14. Syracuse (↓1)
15. Gonzaga
16. Michigan State (↑1)
17. Iowa State (↓1)
18. Drake
19. Rutgers
20. Kentucky
21. Arizona State
22. Utah (↑3)
23. South Carolina (↓1)
24. Miami (FL) (↓1)
25. Florida State (↓1)
Also considered: Texas A&M, West Virginia
Baylor is also ranked No. 1 in this week’s AP poll, and per ESPN, this is the first season since 2012–13 that there have been three different teams ranked No. 1 before February 1. It’s been even crazier on our Her Hoop Stats ballot, as we’ve had four different No. 1 teams this season: Notre Dame, UConn, Louisville, and Baylor.
At first glance, our decision to jump Baylor five spots — not to mention our shuffling of teams like Louisville and Mississippi State — might look unfair. Last week’s No. 2, UConn, did not lose this week, so the Huskies might seem like the natural pick to take over the top spot after Notre Dame’s loss. And Louisville’s “reward” for beating Florida State and Pittsburgh was a two-spot drop on our ballot.
But looking only at the most recent results can sometimes obscure the bigger picture. In the non-conference, Baylor and Mississippi State played relatively easier schedules than other top teams, which held them back on our ballot. But as teams get deeper into conference play, these teams (and other Power 5 teams that played weaker non-conference schedules) start to play tougher opponents. If they keep winning, as the Lady Bears and Bulldogs have done, their overall body of work starts to look more and more impressive. Baylor got two wins this week against Iowa State (Her Hoop Stats rating: 9) and Oklahoma (HHS rating: 114); the Iowa State win was the Lady Bears’ second-best of the year, based on opponents’ HHS rating. Similarly, Mississippi State has filled out its resume this month with wins against SEC foes Kentucky (HHS rating: 13) and South Carolina (HHS rating: 18).
If you disagree with our decision at the top, rest assured that we’ll debate the top teams all over again next week. Our current No. 2 UConn plays No. 6 Louisville on Thursday, while Baylor heads to No. 13 Texas in a meeting of the Big 12’s preseason top two teams. We’ll also have plenty to talk about farther down our ballot after No. 23 South Carolina plays No. 20 Kentucky and Utah, which jumped to No. 22 on our ballot after the Stanford win, heads to our No. 10 Oregon State.
Which teams do you think will get wins against ranked opponents this week? Let us know in the comments section below or on Twitter (@herhoopstats), and check out our rankings on the Hoopfeed website throughout the season.
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