HHS Top 25: It’s a Dog-Eat-Irish World Now
There is a new number one team in women’s college basketball this week. On Sunday, the UConn Huskies beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 89–71 in a showdown between the nation’s top two teams. On Monday, UConn was unanimously ranked number one in the AP Top 25 poll. Head coach Geno Auriemma downplayed the importance of the number one ranking but said, “our players feel that we’re No. 1 … because we did earn it.”
Other high-profile matchups last week yielded results that weren’t so neat and tidy for those of us who vote on the top 25 teams. Here is the ballot that we submitted to the Sport Tours International (STI)/Hoopfeed Top 25 Poll for Week 4, which covered games played from Tuesday, November 27 through Monday, December 3. Movement up or down from our Week 3 ballot is denoted in parentheses.
1. UConn (↑1)
2. Mississippi State (↑3)
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame (↓3)
5. Baylor (↑1)
6. Oregon (↓2)
7. Oregon State
8. Maryland (↑1)
9. Tennessee (↑1)
10. Stanford (↓2)
11. North Carolina State (↑2)
12. Syracuse
13. Drake (↑4)
14. Minnesota (↑8)
15. DePaul
16. Iowa
17. Texas (↓6)
18. Missouri
19. Marquette
20. Arizona State (↑1)
21. South Carolina (↓7)
22. Kentucky (NR)
23. California
24. Texas A&M (↓4)
25. Gonzaga (NR)
Dropped out: West Virginia, Miami (FL)
The decision about how far to drop Notre Dame spurred plenty of debate at Her Hoop Stats. If the final score had been closer, we might have put Notre Dame at No. 2, but the 18-point margin, combined with impressive performances by other top-six teams, pushed Notre Dame to No. 4.
As I explained when I revealed our Week 1 rankings, one question we ask ourselves as we consider the top 25 is, “Which team do we think would win a best-of-seven series right now on a neutral court?” Our new No. 2 team, Mississippi State, has looked as impressive as anyone so far this season. Through the Bulldogs’ first seven games, they were winning by an average of 50 points a game. Sure, that margin raises questions about their strength of schedule, but, as I tweeted last week, beating anybody by 50 points is an amazing feat (and they did beat ACC foe Virginia by 28 during that stretch). On Sunday, Mississippi State passed its first test against a ranked opponent with flying colors, beating Texas by 18 in Austin on the strength of 48 points in the paint and 19 points off Texas turnovers. At this point in time, it’s no stretch to imagine Mississippi State beating Notre Dame, No. 3 Louisville, or No. 5 Baylor in a neutral-site series.
Baylor also climbed in our ballot after a blowout win on Sunday against a top-25 team. The Lady Bears beat South Carolina by 25 on the road, shooting 4 of 6 from 3-point range in the first half to complement their always-lethal post game. Although there were questions about Baylor’s point guard play entering the season, Baylor has looked dominant in its first seven games, and we’d pick the Lady Bears to win a series against almost any team in the country right now.
These jumps in the poll by Mississippi State and Baylor raise the question of what to do with Oregon. Despite being 6–0 this season, Oregon fell two spots on our ballot this week, beating Long Beach State (1–7) by 52 in its lone game. To paraphrase a common saying, if one team goes up, another must come down. The Ducks’ best win (over Syracuse) came at home in their first game of the season; their drop in our ballot is because they have not proven much since that game, so our opinion of them has stayed steady while we’ve been increasingly impressed with other top-six teams. But if you disagree with our assessment, don’t worry: Mississippi State takes on Oregon on December 18, after which we’ll likely debate the top six all over again.
Farther down the poll, Her Hoop Stats also mulled over the order for the teams we ranked Nos. 13 through 18: Drake, Minnesota, DePaul, Iowa, and Texas. The latter three all lost this week to good teams while Drake beat Creighton on the road and Minnesota beat Syracuse and Air Force at home. In comparing the teams’ results, we thought Drake’s body of work trumped what any of the other teams could offer. With several teams above them losing this week, Drake jumped four spots and Minnesota — a team we may have underrated early in the season — jumped eight spots.
Last but not least, for the second straight week, we welcomed two new teams to our top 25 ballot as Kentucky and Gonzaga replaced West Virginia and Miami (FL). Kentucky is 8–0 this season with wins over Virginia, South Florida, UCLA, and North Carolina; Gonzaga improved to 8–1 with an upset of Stanford on Sunday and has lost only to Notre Dame.
As always, we’re curious to hear your thoughts and reactions. Let us know where you think our top 25 is spot-on or topsy-turvy by leaving a comment on this post or tweeting at us @herhoopstats. And make sure to check the Hoopfeed website throughout the season for the weekly STI/Hoopfeed top 25 rankings.
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