Minutes Returning for Top Teams (and just how much does it matter?)

Each offseason teams lose a significant chunk of their roster, mainly to graduation and transfers. In many lines of work 10% annual turnover would be disastrous, but most college coaches would be quite content to only lose one player from a ten-strong roster.

For the best teams in the country, retaining players is especially crucial. Keeping the majority of a successful roster allows a team to continue to build chemistry while retaining knowledge of offensive and defensive schemes. When combined with individual player improvement, high roster continuity for these top programs effectively means returning an older, more experienced version of what was already an impressive team.

Of course, tracking simply the total number of players leaving a team doesn’t quite tell the whole story; the loss of a leading scorer will be much more impactful than the graduation of a 7th or 8th player. Instead, we can look at the number of minutes played last season by players returning to a team this year. For example, Baylor’s players totalled 7,000 minutes between them last season. Those returning to the team account for just over half (53.6%) of those minutes; Baylor will need to make up the lost production somewhere, whether it be with incoming freshmen or by returning players stepping into bigger roles.

Which top teams, then, are best positioned to build on their successes from last year? The bar chart below shows the top 25 teams in the league last season (as measured by HHS Overall Rating, which takes strength of schedule into account) and the proportion of minutes played last season by returning players. Programs retaining a significant proportion (>75% of minutes played) of their teams from last season are highlighted in green.

Seventy-five percent might seem like an arbitrary line to draw as the definition of ‘significant minutes’: it’s merely a ballpark figure, but was arrived at by investigating the performance of incumbent top teams in previous seasons. The graphs below chart the minutes returning for the top 25 teams (again via HHS Overall Rating) in the 2015–16 and 2016–17 seasons, as well as their year-to-year change in margin per 100 possessions (aka NetRtg) — in short, whether they got better or worse the next season. Some interesting examples are highlighted, which will be elaborated upon shortly.

Seventy-five percent of minutes is, to reiterate, merely a ballpark figure, but in recent years it’s served as a decent bellweather for the prospects of a team going into the season. Oregon was one of the prominent examples last season, returning players who played over 80% of its minutes and jumping from 16th in HHS Overall Rating in 2016–17 all the way to 6th last year.

With that in mind, history suggests that the seven teams highlighted in the bar chart (led by Arizona St., returning a remarkable 97% of their minutes) should be feeling good about their chances to build on their success last season. For in-depth discussions of whether these teams will indeed trend upwards, you can read Cindy Smith on Notre Dame and Joshua Lemkin on Stanford.

For teams losing players who racked up more than a quarter of the teams minutes from last season, though, it’s much more difficult to forecast performance based purely on minutes. Take Duke and Kentucky in 2016–17 as examples. They retained an almost identical proportion of minutes going into the season, but took big steps in opposite directions. Similarly, the rapid rise and precipitous fall of Washington can mostly be chalked up to one Kelsey Plum. The more minutes a team loses, the more it begins to matter who exactly they’re losing and who’s replacing them; a deeper dive than just tracking minutes is needed.

Luckily, Her Hoops Stats also has those deeper dives covered:

• Baylor: Megan Gauer shares her thoughts on what Baylor’s #1 recruiting class can bring to the team this season. [Read the story here]
• Maryland: Jenn Hattfield asks if the Terrapins can regain their status as an elite offense. [Read the story here]
• Ohio St.: After losing their entire starting lineup, Jenn Hattfield thinks the Buckeyes’ graduate transfers will have to get up to speed quickly. [Read the story here]
• Oregon: Is airport security the only thing that can stop Sabrina Ionescu? [Read the story here]
• UConn: The Huskies lost three starters to the top 10 of the WNBA draft, but Sarah Moody believes expectations for this team should be as high as always. [Read the story here]
• USF: Megan Gauer thinks the international experience of the Bulls roster could make a difference. [Read the story here]

For more team previews, and analysis throughout the season, make sure to stay updated with Her Hoops Stats on Twitter @herhoopstats.

If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year. All stats are compiled from Her Hoop Stats. Minutes returning are based on official team rosters.