Top 5 (AND 1!) Games to Watch — February 11th — February 17th

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Her Hoop Stats

8 min readFeb 11, 2019

With so many great women’s basketball games this week, we couldn’t limit ourselves to just five. Clear your schedule on Sunday for four nationally televised games. If you still need more hoops, you can also check out No. 12 NC State traveling to No. 16 Syracuse on ACCN Extra on Wednesday. You could also check out Missouri take on Teaira McCowan and No. 5 Mississippi State on SEC Network on Thursday and then watch the Bulldogs as they travel to No. 15 Texas on SEC Network on Sunday.

Before we get to the Her Hoop Stats games to watch, take a look at the results from last week’s games.

Her Hoop Stats Top 5 Games to Watch

#11 South Carolina at #4 UConn — 2/11 at 7 PM (ESPN2)

Dawn Staley is looking to get her first win over Geno Auriemma’s Huskies. Her Gamecocks have improved since their rocky start this season. They are now second in the SEC with just one loss in conference play to No. 5 Mississippi State. If that’s not enough to convince you to watch, this prime time game will include a top 16 reveal from the NCAA and the ESPN3 feed will feature A’ja Wilson and Sue Bird talking smack.

The Gamecocks are in the top 10 percent in Division I with 104.3 points per 100 possessions. This offensive success has come from varying lineups. Three starters average double-digit points per game (Tyasha Harris, Te’a Cooper, and Alexis Jennings), but good performances off the bench have been crucial for the Gamecocks. Freshmen Victaria Saxton and Destanni Henderson, for example, each scored 19 points in the match against Arkansas and 12 against Ole Miss. They have not been as strong defensively, allowing 87.7 points per 100 possessions. Expect them to force UConn’s shooters into the paint; their opponent three-point rate of 22.6 percent ranks 17th in the country.

UConn is at its lowest ranking since 2007 and has only one win against teams in the top 10 in Her Hoop Stats Rating. Inconsistent shooting has been a factor, with the Huskies shooting below average in their losses to Baylor and Louisville. Despite this, the Huskies offense is a force to be reckoned with. They are in the top five teams in the country in points per 100 possessions (116.9) and effective field goal percentage (55.5%). All five starters average at least double-digit points per game. They are just as strong on the other side of the court, allowing just 78.5 points per 100 possessions while maintaining the lowest foul rate in the country. Even with their relative struggles this year, UConn will be a challenge for an improving South Carolina team.

#9 Oregon State at #3 Oregon — 2/15 at 9 PM (PAC12 Network)

The Beavers travel to Eugene in the first game of the Civil War weekend in Oregon. This battle for Pac-12 standings will be an offensive showdown with Oregon ranked first in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating and Oregon State ranked 10th. The game should feature great shooting from the arc; Oregon and Oregon State are first and third in the country in three-point percentage.

Oregon State’s offense has been impressive, with 113.9 points per 100 possessions, sixth in Division I. They rank third in the country in effective field goal percentage (56.2%) and points per scoring attempt (1.17). The Beavers’ key offensive weapons, Destiny Slocum and Mikayla Pivec, both rank in the top 10 percent of players in points per game, points per scoring attempt, and assists per game. On defense, they limit opponents to 34.7 percent shooting, ninth in the country. Find out how well their defense stands up to Oregon’s prolific offense.

Oregon is undefeated in Pac-12 play, with a convincing win over No. 10 Stanford last weekend. They lead the nation in scoring, averaging 125.4 points per 100 possessions. The Ducks have a team full of offensive weapons. Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, and Ruthy Hebard all rank in the top four percent of players in points per game. Ionescu and Maite Cazorla rank in the top one percent in assist to turnover ratio. The Ducks can sometimes take a quarter or two to heat up on offense but will need to start strong to match Oregon State’s scoring.

#8 Marquette at Seton Hall — 2/17 at 12 PM (CBSSN)

Marquette travels to Seton Hall in this Big East match-up. The Golden Eagles won handily when these teams met earlier this season, beating the Pirates 96–60. Marquette is undefeated in conference play but has lost three of four games against teams in the top 25 in Her Hoops Stats Rating and barely eked out a win over Georgetown last week. Tune in to see if the Golden Eagles can sweep the Pirates and continue their Big East winning streak.

Marquette has been strong on both sides of the court this season, ranking fifth in the country in both HHS Offensive and Defense Rating. On offense, they rank 16th overall in points per scoring attempt (1.13) and fifteenth in field goal percentage (47.1%). Leading scorers Allazia Blockton and Natisha Hiedeman rank in the top five percent of Division I players in points per game. Defensively, the Golden Eagles hold their opponents to just 0.90 points per scoring attempt, which ranks in the top 15 percent nationally. Hiedeman, Danielle King, and Selena Lott all rank in the top 10 percent of players in steals per game. Marquette’s defense was successful the last time these teams met; Marquette held Seton Hall to just 31.7 percent shooting.

The Pirates average 99.6 points per 100 possessions, in the top 20 percent of teams in the country. Junior Shadeen Samuels has stepped up to lead Seton Hall’s offense with 18.5 points per game, more than double her average from last year. Samuels ranks in the top five percent of players nationally with 1.20 points per scoring attempt. On defense, Seton Hall forces an average of 19.5 turnovers per game, in the top 15 percent in Division I. In their last meeting, Marquette turned the ball over 17 times, but Seton Hall’s offense will need to be able to convert those to points to beat the Golden Eagles this time around.

#7 Maryland at #14 Iowa — 2/17 at 1 PM (ESPN2)

Settle in for an afternoon of women’s hoops on ESPN2, starting with this Big Ten match-up. Maryland holds the top spot in the conference but will face a challenge against Iowa’s high-powered offense. Watch to see if the Terps can contain the country’s leading scorer, Megan Gustafson, who is averaging 27.3 points per game.

Maryland is looking to extend a seven-game Big Ten winning streak. The Terps average 1.10 points per scoring attempt while holding their opponents to just 0.85 points per scoring attempt, leading them to an average margin of 17.7 points, 10th in the country. Leading scorers Taylor Mikesell and Kaila Charles rank in the top ten percent of players in points per game (14.4 and 16.0). Maryland’s strong offensive rebounding should shine in this game. The Terps grab 38.9 percent of offensive rebound opportunities, 23rd in the country, while Iowa’s 68.6 percent defensive rebounding rate is in the middle of pack.

Iowa averages 113.2 points per 100 possessions, seventh in the country. Gustafson, with an effective field goal percentage of 70.7, is the star of Iowa’s offense, but it’s still team ball. Three other players (Tania Davis, Kathleen Doyle, and Hannah Stewart) average double-digit points per game. This is good news for Iowa, since Gustafson scores primarily from the paint and Maryland’s inside defense has been strong. The Terps have held opponents to just 37.1 percent shooting from two, sixth in the country. Whether they can contain Gustafson and the Hawkeyes remains to be seen.

#20 Miami at #2 Louisville — 2/17 at 3 PM (ESPN2)

Miami will be trying to move up the ACC standings with an upset over No. 2 Louisville. Miami has big wins over Notre Dame and Marquette, but also a loss to unranked Clemson and a bad nonconference loss to Purdue. Louisville’s only loss of the season has been to Notre Dame and the Cardinals will be looking to stay on top of the ACC leaderboard. Find out if the Hurricanes can pull off another high-profile upset.

Miami has been effective on offense this year, averaging 104.7 points per 100 possessions, 28th in Division I. Leading scorers Beatrice Mompremier and Emese Hof rank in the top 10 percent of players with 16.6 and 13.9 points per game, respectively. Watch for the Hurricanes to get second-chance points. The team ranks in the top five percent in the country in offensive rebounding, grabbing 39.3 percent of their own misses, while Louisville ranks in the bottom half in defensive rebounding rate, grabbing just 66.3 percent of opponent misses.

Louisville is also a strong offensive team. They are ninth in the country with 111.8 points per 100 possessions. Asia Durr averages 21.1 points per game, ranking in the top one percent of Division I players, but all of the team’s starters are efficient scorers, ranking in the top 15 percent of players in points per scoring attempt. On defense, the Cardinals have limited opponents to just 83.3 points per 100 possessions. They’ll look to force Miami to turn the ball over. Louisville’s opponent turnover rate of 21.6 percent ranks in the top 20 percent in the country and Miami’s turnover rate of 19.0 percent is close to the 50th percentile.

Tennessee at Missouri — 2/17 at 5 PM (ESPN2)

To wrap up a big weekend of women’s college basketball, watch this SEC rematch between closely matched Tennessee and Missouri. Their last meeting this season, which Mizzou won 66–64, was the beginning of Tennessee’s historic losing streak. The Lady Vols regained their footing with three SEC wins before a loss to No. 5 Mississippi State and will be looking to avoid a sweep by Missouri.

Tennessee has averaged 101.3 points per 100 possessions this year, ranking in the top 15 percent of Division I teams. They have four players averaging double-digit points per game: Rennia Davis (14.8), Evina Westbrook (16.0), Meme Jackson (11.7) and Zaay Green (10.2). They are strong rebounders, grabbing 56.6 percent of rebound opportunities. Look for the Lady Vols to push the pace. They rank in the top 10 percent of teams with 75.3 possessions per 40 minutes while Missouri ranks in the bottom five percent with 65.0 possessions per 40 minutes.

Sophie Cunningham leads Mizzou’s offense with 17.1 points per game, which ranks in the top three percent of players, and 1.29 points per scoring attempt, which ranks in the top two percent. The Tigers could have a big game from behind the arc. 38.6 percent of their scoring attempts are from three and Tennessee ranks in the bottom half of teams in opponent three-point percentage. Defensively, the Tigers hold their opponents to 40.2 percent effective field goal percentage, top 10 percent in the country.

Please note all statistics and rankings listed above are as of 2/11/2019.

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