Top 5 (AND 1!) Games to Watch — February 18th — February 24th

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Her Hoop Stats

9 min readFeb 18, 2019

We have another fantastic week of women’s college basketball. This week’s list features three in-state rivalry games and four top-25 match-ups.

Before we get to the Her Hoop Stats games to watch, take a look at the results from last week’s games.

Her Hoop Stats Top 5 Games to Watch

#5 Notre Dame at #9 NC State — 2/18 at 7 PM (ESPN2)

The week’s top games kick off with this battle for ACC standing. Both Notre Dame and NC State have something to prove. In addition to their loss to №3 UConn, the Fighting Irish were upset by №14 Miami and unranked North Carolina. Muffet McGraw’s team has been ranked as high as №1 this season and they need a win to avoid sliding further down the rankings. NC State, who were the last undefeated team in NCAA basketball this season, also lost to North Carolina and to №22 Florida State. The Wolfpack have only faced one opponent in the Her Hoop Stats Rating top 25 and a win over last year’s national champion team would help to solidify their ranking.

Notre Dame’s offense has been incredibly efficient this season, averaging 1.16 points per scoring attempt, sixth in the country. Senior guard Arike Ogunbowale leads the team on offense, averaging 21.0 points and 4.1 assists per game. Over 30 percent of plays when she’s on the floor end with her shooting, getting to the line, or committing a turnover, a usage rate that ranks in the top three percent of players. She’s not their only scorer, though. All five starters average at least 13 points per game and 1.10 points per scoring attempt. On defense, the Fighting Irish limit their opponents to just 0.86 points per scoring attempt, ranking in the top five percent of teams in the country. They block 12.1 percent of opponent two-point attempts, ranking in the top 10 percent. The Fighting Irish average 75.9 possessions per 40 minutes, in the top 10 percent of Division I teams, while the Wolfpack rank in the bottom 25 percent, so expect Notre Dame to push the pace.

NC State has also been strong on offense. The Wolfpack averages 104.6 points per 100 possessions, 28th in the country. They rank in the top 10 percent in field goal percentage (44.8%) and points per scoring attempt (1.08). Leading scorer Kiara Leslie averages 15.8 points per game, in the top five percent of Division I players. Aislinn Konig, who took over point guard duties this year after Kaila Ealey’s injury, ranks in the top five percent in assist to turnover ratio (1.92) and adds an average of 11.5 points per game, mostly from behind the arc. On the other side of the court, NC State limits opponents to just 34.1 percent shooting, fifth in the country. They grab 75 percent of opponent misses, the fifth-highest defensive rebounding rate in Division I. Let’s see if they can effectively limit Notre Dame’s efficient offense.

#2 Oregon at #12 Oregon State — 2/18 at 9 PM (ESPN2)

If Friday’s meeting between these two teams is any indication, this second game in the Civil War weekend should be a good one. The Ducks will look to sweep the Beavers on the road in front of a sellout crowd at Gill Coliseum. Both teams are strong offensively; Oregon ranks first with 125.4 points per 100 possessions and Oregon State ranks seventh with 113.8 points per 100 possessions. Oregon’s improved defense served them well on Friday and they will look to limit Oregon State again this week.

The Ducks lead Division I in points per scoring attempt (1.24), assist to turnover ratio (1.93), and three-point percentage (43.8%). Oregon’s offensive superstars Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, and Ruthy Hebard rank in the top five percent of players in points per game and they all had a big night against Oregon State on Friday. Ionescu is third in the country with eight assists per game and Maite Cazorla averages five, ranking in the top two percent of players. Though she was quiet on Friday, Erin Boley averages 12.5 points per game and is in the top three percent in three-point percentage. This balanced offense poses a challenge for the Beavers.

Oregon State’s offense is quite effective as well with 1.17 points per scoring attempt, third-highest in the country. Leading scorer Destiny Slocum racked up 19 points in Friday’s game, but the Ducks were able to hold Mikayla Pivec to just 6, well below her season average of 14.1 points per game. Katie McWilliams, Joanna Grymek, and Aleah Goodman made up the difference, scoring well above their season averages, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with the Ducks. On defense, the Beavers have limited their opponents to just 0.85 points per scoring attempt this season, eighth in the country, and held the Ducks to 1.10 on Friday, below their average. We’ll see if their defense can slow down high-powered Oregon in Corvallis.

#16 Kentucky at #13 South Carolina — 2/21 at 7 PM (SEC Network)

This SEC game features two closely matched teams. Kentucky is 15th in Her Hoops Stats Rating and South Carolina is 18th. After a slow start to the season, the Gamecocks have only one loss in conference play and are near the top of the standings. They need a win over Kentucky to keep pace with conference leader Mississippi State. Expect the Gamecocks to get plenty of second-chance points; they rank in the top 10 percent in offensive rebounding rate while the Wildcats rank close to the bottom 25 percent in defensive rebounding rate.

Kentucky averages 103.6 points per 100 possessions, with leading scorers Rhyne Howard and Maci Morris each averaging over 16 points per game. They are both strong from behind the arc, ranking in the top 10 percent of players in three-point percentage. The Wildcats allow 81.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking 22nd in the country. They have the 10th-highest steal rate, getting a steal on 15.4 percent of opponent possessions. Find out if they can slow down South Carolina’s offense.

South Carolina had regained their footing after struggling early in the season, but their five-game winning streak ended with a big loss to UConn. Three players (Tyasha Harris, Alexis Jennings, and Te’a Cooper) average double-digit points per game, but bench players have been crucial for South Carolina’s offensive success. Bianca Jackson, Doniyah Cliney, Victaria Saxton, Nelly Perry, and Destanni Henderson have all scored at least 10 points in two or more games this season. On defense, the Gamecocks limit their opponents to 0.94 points per scoring attempt. South Carolina blocks 13.6 percent of opponent two-point attempts, in the top four percent in Division I.

#1 Baylor at #21 Iowa State — 2/23 at 4 PM (FSN)

Baylor travels to Hilton Coliseum in this Big 12 match-up. The Lady Bears won handily in their last meeting, beating the Cyclones 84–69. While both teams have been successful on offense, Baylor’s powerful defense has been a major factor in pushing them to the top of the rankings. Tune in to see if Iowa State can avoid a sweep at home.

Baylor has been dominant on both sides of the floor this season, beating their opponents by an average of 25.7 points, the fourth-highest margin in Division I. Their offensive success has come in the paint; only 11.4 percent of their scoring attempts are from beyond the arc, the lowest three-point rate in the country. Leading scorers Kalani Brown and Lauren Cox both rank in the top 10 percent of players in points per scoring attempt. Brown and Cox are a big part of Baylor’s defensive success as well. They both rank in the top five percent of players in block rate, leading to Baylor’s astounding 20.6 percent team block rate, first in the country. The Lady Bears also lead the country in opponent two-point percentage, limiting opponents to just 32.1 percent shooting from two, and in defensive rebounding, grabbing 76.5 percent of opponent misses. Expect Iowa State to challenge them on the glass; their 73.1 percent offensive rebounding rate ranks in the top 10 percent.

Bridget Carleton is the driving force behind Iowa State’s offense. When she’s on the court, 28.4 percent of plays end with her shooting, getting to the line, or turning the ball over and she assists on 24.5 percent of her teammates’ field goals. She averages 21.2 points per game, 13th in the country. Iowa State is above average shooting from beyond the arc while Baylor is in the middle of the pack in opponent three-point percentage. Kristin Scott, who averages 14.0 points per game and ranks in the top two percent of players with 46.1 percent shooting from three, could have a big game if Iowa State looks to escape Baylor’s stifling inside defense.

Michigan at Michigan State — 2/24 at 2 PM (ESPN2)

This Big Ten battle features the Wolverines traveling to East Lansing to take on the Spartans. Their last match-up was close, with Michigan State winning 77–73. The Wolverines will be looking to extend their five-game winning streak, which includes a big win over №10 Iowa, and avoid the sweep with the Spartans. Michigan State, coming off losses to Wisconsin (134th in HHS Rating) and Nebraska (65th in HHS Rating), fell out the AP Top 25 this week and needs to avoid a home loss to another unranked team.

Michigan averages 100 points per 100 possessions, in the top 20 percent of teams. The Wolverines shoot 44.7 percent from the floor, 27th in the country. This is largely from two; only 20.4 percent of their scoring attempts are from beyond the arc, ranking in the bottom 10 percent in Division I. The Wolverines have three players averaging more than 10 points per game: Nicole Munger (10.2), Hallie Thome (12.3), and Naz Hillmon (12.8). All three are also in the top 10 percent with at least 1.13 points per scoring attempt. On defense, the Wolverines allow 91 points per 100 possessions, raking in the top 30 percent of teams. They are near the 50th percentile in opponent effective field goal percentage (45.3%), which could prove problematic given Michigan State’s 51.5 effective field goal percentage, which is in the top 10 percent in the country.

Michigan State’s offense finds success through team play and good shooting, averaging 105.8 points per 100 possessions. Their 68.5 percent assisted shot rate is 11th in the country. Three players rank in the top ten percent in assists per game: Taryn McCutcheon (4.5), Nia Clouden (4.4), and Shay Colley (3.6). The Spartans shoot 45.4 percent from the floor, ranking 23rd in the country, and 39.4 percent from three, ranking seventh. Michigan State allows 91 points per 100 possessions. They are in the bottom third in opponent three-point percentage, but this shouldn’t be an issue given Michigan’s low three-point rate.

#23 South Dakota at South Dakota State — 2/24 at 2 PM (ESPN+)

South Dakota entered the AP poll for the first time last week, but they made an appearance in the Her Hoop Stats Top 25 ballot as early as week 6. They face off against in-state rival South Dakota State in this battle for first place in the Summit League. South Dakota won their last meeting 105–98. Both teams rank in the top 10 percent in three-point percentage, but in the bottom third defending threes, so expect good shooting from beyond the arc.

The Coyotes average 108.3 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the country. Ciara Duffy leads South Dakota’s offense. She ranks in the top five percent of players with 15.6 points per game and 1.20 points per scoring attempt and in the top 10 percent with 3.3 assists per game. The Coyotes allow 83.8 points per 100 possessions, in the top 15 percent of teams in Division I. This could give them the edge over the Jackrabbits, who rank in the bottom two-thirds of teams in opponent points per 100 possessions.

South Dakota State has been similarly successful on offense, ranking 11th in Division I with 110.2 points per 100 possessions. The Jackrabbits average 1.14 points per scoring attempt, 11th in the country. Leading scorer Macy Miller averages 16.5 points and 3.3 assists per game. Four starters rank in the top 10 percent of players in points per scoring attempt: Miller, Madison Guebert, Myah Seland, and Tagyn Larson. The Jackrabbits are also strong defensive rebounders, grabbing 74.7 percent of opponent misses. Watch to see if the Coyotes can grab first place in the conference from the Jackrabbits.

Please note all statistics are current through games played 2/15/2019.

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