Top 5 (AND 1!) Games to Watch — February 25 — March 3rd

Published in

Her Hoop Stats

10 min readFeb 25, 2019

With so many high-stakes conference match-ups, we couldn’t limit our list to just five games this week. Get ready for big games in the ACC, SEC, Big 12 and Pac-12.

Before we get to the Her Hoop Stats games to watch, take a look at the results from last week’s games.

Her Hoop Stats Top 5 Games to Watch

#4 Notre Dame at #17 Syracuse — 2/25 at 6 PM (ESPN2)

ACC conference play has been tough this season, with six ACC teams currently ranked in the AP poll. Conference leader Notre Dame fell to №10 NC State and unranked North Carolina. The Fighting Irish will be looking to solidify their place at the top of the standings by extending their four-game winning streak at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse has four losses in the ACC and is just 1–4 against teams in the top 25 in Her Hoop Stats Rating. Expect a fast, high-scoring game. Notre Dame leads the country with 87.6 points per game and ranks 25th in possessions per 40 minutes (75.7) while Syracuse ranks 18th in points per game (78.0) and 37th in possessions per 40 minutes (75.1). On defense, both teams are strong in the paint, ranking in the top 10 percent in block rate.

Even with two high-profile upsets and a loss to №2 UConn, last year’s national champions have been very successful this season. They beat their opponents by an average of 24.8 points, the fourth-highest margin in Division I, despite playing the toughest schedule in terms of opponent average win percentage (66.9%). The Fighting Irish are efficient scorers, ranking second in field goal percentage (51.6%) and fifth in points per scoring attempt (1.16). Senior Arike Ogunbowale averages 21.2 points per game and when she’s on the court, 30.2 of possessions end with her shooting, getting to the line, or turning the ball over. Ogunbowale leads Notre Dame’s offense, but she has efficient scorers backing her up. The remaining four starters — Jackie Young, Jessica Shepard, Marina Mabrey, and Brianna Turner — each average at least 13.5 points per game and are in the 95th percentile in points per scoring attempt. On the other end of the court, the Fighting Irish limit opponents to just 0.87 points per scoring attempt while maintaining the second-lowest foul rate in the country.

Syracuse averages 1.06 points per scoring attempt, ranking in the top 15 percent of teams, and their 50.9 percent shooting from two ranks in the top 10 percent. The Orange are in the top 30 percent of teams in three-point percentage (33.0%) and 40.2 percent of their scoring attempts are from behind the arc, the 10th-highest three-point rate in Division I. This could be problematic given Notre Dame’s strong defense; the Fighting Irish rank 21st in opponent three-point percentage. Tiana Mangakahia is key to Syracuse’s offense. She averages 15.2 points per game and assists on 50.7 percent of her teammates’ field goals, the highest assist rate in the country. Tune in to see if Syracuse can match Notre Dame’s scoring.

#18 Texas at #1 Baylor — 2/25 at 7 PM (FS1)

Although Baylor won their last match-up 74–68, Texas was no pushover. The Longhorns held the Lady Bears to 0.96 points per scoring attempt, below their season average of 1.11, and outperformed their own season average with 1.12 points per scoring attempt. Texas will be looking to avoid the sweep at the Ferrell Center against a dominant Baylor team. Watch for strong competition on the boards. Baylor leads the country in rebounding rate, grabbing 61.1 percent of rebound opportunities, while Texas is third with 57.9 percent. The Lady Bears dominated the glass in their last meeting, grabbing 41 rebounds compared to the 28 for the Longhorns.

Texas shoots 45.4 percent from the floor, ranking in the top 10 percent of teams in the country. Although their 22.0 percent three-point rate is in the bottom 15 percent of teams, they are likely to step up from behind the arc in this game. Baylor is in the middle of the pack in opponent three-point percentage and Texas went 9–17 from three in their last meeting. Danni Williams, who shoots 41.3 percent from three, racked up 19 points the last time these teams faced off, well above her average of 11.2 points per game, and she could have another big night on Monday. The Longhorns have three other players with double-digit points per game: Sug Sutton (12.8), Joyner Holmes (11.8) and Jatarie White (10.2).

Baylor is undefeated in the Big 12 and has secured the regular season title. They solidified their dominance with a convincing win over №20 Iowa State last weekend. They only have one loss this season, to №7 Stanford, and beat their opponents by an average of 26.1 points, the third-highest margin per game in the country. The Lady Bears are efficient on offense, with 1.11 points per scoring attempt, ranking 19th. They have the lowest three-point rate in the country, with only 11.9 percent of their scoring attempts from beyond the arc. On defense, they limit opponents to just 31.4 percent shooting from the floor and block 20.8 percent of opponent two-point attempts, leading the country in both categories. Kalani Brown and Lauren Cox dominate on both ends of the court. Brown averages 15.6 points per game and 1.34 points per scoring attempt while Cox adds 12.2 points per game and 1.12 points per scoring attempt. Brown and Cox both rank in the top 10 percent of players in rebounds per game (7.7 and 8.0, respectively) and block rate (7.3% and 10.2%). The Longhorns will need to have another above-average performance to beat Baylor in Waco.

#10 NC State at #3 Louisville — 2/28 at 7 PM (ACC Network Extra)

Our second ACC match-up this week could have big implications for conference standings. NC State, who was the last undefeated team in the NCAA this season, travels to the KFC Yum! Center to take on Louisville. The Wolfpack have three conference losses and need a win to avoid sliding further down the standings. The Cardinals are looking to extend their winning streak after a recent upset by №15 Miami.

NC State is strong on offense, averaging 104.5 points per 100 possessions and 1.08 points per scoring attempt, both ranking in the top 10 percent of teams in Division I. Kiara Leslie leads the Wolfpack in scoring with 16.0 points per game. Two other players average double-digit points per game, point guard Aislinn Konig (11.4) and center Elissa Cunane (13.0). On defense, NC State limits opponents to just 0.86 points per scoring attempt, ranking 11th in the country, and 34.9 percent shooting from the floor, ranking seventh. They have the third-lowest foul rate in Division I, committing a foul on just 18.5 percent of possessions. The Wolfpack could have a big night on the glass. They rank seventh in rebounding rate, grabbing 56.5 percent of rebound opportunities, while the Cardinals rank 112th.

Louisville ranks 10th in the country in points per 100 possessions (111.8) and points per scoring attempt (1.14). They are strong shooters, ranking in the top five percent of teams in two-point percentage (52.5%) and three-point percentage (37.8%). Asia Durr is key to the Cardinals offense, with 31.1 percent of plays ending with her shooting, getting to the line, or turning the ball over, a usage rate that ranks in the 97th percentile of players. Sam Fuehring and Dana Evans each add 10.4 points per game. On defense, Louisville limits teams to 0.91 points per scoring attempt. Find out if the Cardinals can hold off the Wolfpack and rise in the ACC standings.

#9 Oregon State at #21 Arizona State — 3/1 at 8 PM (Pac-12 Network)

Competition has been fierce in the Pac-12, with five teams currently ranked in the AP poll, and this game is likely to follow suit. The last time these teams faced off, Arizona State won 79–76 in double overtime. Oregon State is looking to extend their three-game winning streak that includes a victory over №6 Oregon and Arizona State is coming off losses to unranked Cal and №7 Stanford. Both teams rank in the bottom 20 percent in Division I in possessions per 40 minutes, so expect a deliberate, low-scoring game.

The Beavers are strong offensively, averaging 113.1 points per 100 possessions, seventh-highest in Division I. They are efficient scorers, ranking third in the country in effective field goal percentage (55.8%). Destiny Slocum (16.7 points per game) and Mikayla Pivec (14.3 points per game) lead the team in scoring. Aleah Goodman adds another 10.8 points per game and 6-foot-8 Joanna Grymek has seen her role increase lately, scoring at least 10 points in six conference games. All four also average at least 1.16 points per scoring attempt, ranking in the top 10 percent of players. On defense, the Beavers allow just 0.85 points per scoring attempt, seventh-lowest in the country.

Arizona State is in the top 15 percent of teams with 101.3 points per 100 possessions. Kianna Ibis leads the Sun Devils on offense. Her 29.6 percent usage rate ranks in the top five percent of players in the country and she scores an average of 14.0 points, ranking in the top 10 percent. Courtney Ekmark averages 10.3 points per game and Reili Richardson ranks in the top two percent of players in assist rate, getting the dime on 32.2 percent of field goals when she’s on the floor. Both Ibis and Richardson had season-high scoring totals the last time these teams met; Ibis scored 28 and Richardson scored 16. The Sun Devils will need a similarly big night on offense to match with the Beavers this time around.

North Carolina at Duke — 3/3 at 12 PM (ESPN2)

We return to the ACC for this in-state rivalry match-up as the Tar Heels travel to Durham to take on the Blue Devils. North Carolina has high-profile wins against №4 Notre Dame and №10 NC State, but Duke dominated their last meeting, winning 85–69. The Tar Heels shot just 33.3 percent from the floor in that game and will need to step up offensively to avoid the sweep.

North Carolina averages 102.4 points per 100 possessions and 1.05 points per scoring attempt, ranking in the top 15 percent of teams in the country in both categories. The Tar Heels have a balanced offensive attack, with Stephanie Watts, Paris Kea, and Janelle Bailey ranking in the top 10 percent of players in points per game. In addition, Taylor Koenen and Shayla Bennett each average at least 10 points per game. North Carolina allows an average of 95.3 points per 100 possessions, with Watts and Kea ranking in the top 10 percent of players in steals per game.

Duke’s offense averages 90.6 points per 100 possessions. They rank in the top 20 percent of teams with 48.2 effective field goal percentage. Two players rank near the top 10 percent nationally in points per game, Haley Gorecki (17.2) and Leaonna Odom (13.3). The last time these teams met, Gorecki put up 28 points and Odom scored 21. Freshman Miela Goodchild, featured in Jenn Hatfield’s Duke profile, adds another 11.1 points per game. The Blue Devils will need to put up big numbers again this time around to keep up with the Tar Heels.

#5 Mississippi State at #14 South Carolina — 3/3 at 2 PM (ESPN2)

Our last match-up of the week features the top two teams in the SEC. Mississippi State won their last meeting handily, thanks in part to Teaira McCowan’s 26 points and 24 rebounds. Mississippi State’s only losses this season were to №6 Oregon and unranked Missouri. The Gamecocks struggled at the beginning of the season, but have been very successful in conference play, with their only other SEC loss to №11 Kentucky. Find out if South Carolina can avoid the sweep at home.

Mississippi State has been dominant this season. The Bulldogs are first in margin per 100 possessions (42.2) and second in points per 100 possessions (121.0). They average 1.13 points per scoring attempt, 13th-highest in the country. Four players average double-digit points per game: McCowan (16.7), Anriel Howard (16.1), Jordan Danberry (13.4), and Chloe Bibby (11.9). McCowan ranks in the 99th percentile with 64.0 percent shooting. The Bulldogs should get plenty of second-chance points; they lead the country in offensive rebounding rate, grabbing 49.4 percent of their own misses, while South Carolina ranks in the bottom third in defensive rebounding rate. On defense, the Bulldogs block 14.1 percent of opponent two-point attempts, the 11th-highest block rate in the country, and limit opponents to just 0.89 points per scoring attempt.

South Carolina averages 104.1 points per 100 possessions. Te’a Cooper, Tyasha Harris, and Alexis Jennings all average at least 10 points per game and the Gamecocks have seen good production from various bench players throughout the season. Harris also ranks in the top three percent of players in Division I in assist rate, assisting on 30.1 percent of teammate field goals when she’s on the floor. The Gamecocks are not strong from three and only 25.2 percent of their scoring attempts are from beyond the arc. This could be an issue given Mississippi State’s strong inside defense; the Bulldogs hold opponents to just 38.7 percent shooting from two, ranking 19th in the country. The Gamecocks will need above-average performances from their starters and their bench to beat a tough Mississippi State team.

Please note all statistics are current through games played 2/24/2019.

Be sure to follow Her Hoop Stats on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for your women’s basketball coverage.

All stats are compiled from Her Hoop Stats and ESPN. If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year.