Top 5 Games to Watch — Conference Tournaments Edition

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Her Hoop Stats

7 min readMar 7, 2019

March is here, which means it’s time for conference tournaments! Each of the conference championship games, aired on ESPN networks, will be worth watching, but there will be plenty of exciting match-ups leading up to the final games as well. For this week’s list, we’re previewing five games we’re hoping to see in early rounds of conference tournaments. Of course, these match-ups depend on the outcomes of earlier games, so we’re ready for some surprises, too.

Before we get to the Her Hoop Stats games to watch, take a look at the results of last week’s games.

Her Hoop Stats Top 5 Games to Watch

ACC Quarterfinals Game 1: #16 Miami vs. #18 Syracuse— 3/8 at 11:00 AM (ACC Network Extra)

Update: Syracuse won their game against Virginia and will advance to face Miami in the quarterfinals.

Finishing fourth in the ACC, Miami is guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals, but Syracuse needs a win over Virginia, a team they beat by just four points in the regular season, to advance and face the Hurricanes. The winner is likely to face Notre Dame in the semifinals in their next game. The Hurricanes beat the Orange 84–71 when they faced off in the regular season, but the teams are closely matched; Syracuse ranks 20th in Her Hoop Stats Rating and Miami ranks 22nd.

Miami has big wins over №2 Louisville, №4 Notre Dame, and №17 Marquette and will be looking to make a statement in the conference tournament. They are strong offensively, ranking in the top 10 percent of Division I teams in points per 100 possessions (104.3) and effective field goal percentage (50.9%). Miami has plenty of offensive weapons with four players averaging double-digit points per game: Beatrice Mompremier (16.5), Emese Hof (14.3), Mykea Gray (12.7), and Laura Cornelius (10.1). Watch to see if they can advance to the semifinals for a chance to upset the reigning national champions for the second time this season.

Syracuse is similar to Miami in points per 100 possessions (103.2) and effective field goal percentage (50.5%). Tiana Mangakahia is key to the Orange’s offense. In addition to averaging 16.6 points per game, she assists on 51 percent of her teammates’ field goals when she’s on the floor, the highest assist rate in the country. She put up an astounding 44 points against Florida State last week, but she’ll need help to win over a strong Miami team.

SEC Quarterfinals Game 2: Missouri vs. #13 Kentucky — 3/8 at 2:30 PM (SECN)

Update: Missouri won their game against Florida and will advance to face Kentucky in the quarterfinals.

Kentucky earned a bye to the quarterfinals, but Missouri will face Florida in their attempt to get there. The Tigers fell 58–56 to the Gators in the regular season. Kentucky got the win when these teams faced off in January, holding Missouri to just 41 points, a season low for the Tigers. The winner is likely to face №5 Mississippi State in the semifinals. Missouri upset the Bulldogs last month, one of only two Mississippi State losses this season.

The Tigers have been efficient scorers this season, ranking in the 94th percentile with 1.11 points per scoring attempt. Sophie Cunningham has been a major factor for Missouri. She ranks in the top three percent of players in points per game (17.3) and points per scoring attempt (1.25). The Tigers are tough on defense, holding opponents to just 0.89 points per scoring attempt, ranking 24th in the country. Expect Missouri to slow the pace; they rank in the bottom five percent of teams in possessions per 40 minutes.

Kentucky averages 100.8 points per 100 possessions, with leading scorers Rhyne Howard and Maci Morris ranking in the top 10 percent of players in points per game (16.0 and 15.1, respectively) and three-point percentage (40.0% and 44.7%). Kentucky’s 15.2 percent steal rate is the 12th-highest in the country and turnovers could be a major advantage for the Wildcats. They rank fourth in the country in opponent turnover rate, 26.1 percent, while the Tigers rank in the bottom 25 percent of teams in turnover rate.

Big Ten Quarterfinals Game 3: Minnesota at #10 Iowa — 3/8 at 6:30 PM (Big Ten Network)

Update: Minnesota lost to Indiana, who will advance to face Iowa in the quarterfinals. Indiana beat Iowa 75–73 during the regular season.

The Gophers started their season with a 12-game winning streak before slumping in the first half of Big Ten play. They’ve revived in the last few weeks, though, losing by just two points to №8 Maryland and winning seven of their last nine games, including wins over Rutgers and Michigan State. Minnesota would need to beat Indiana, a team they beat 65–61 during the regular season, in order to advance to the quarterfinals to face Iowa, who beat the Gophers by 18 points in their last meeting. While it’s unlikely that Minnesota can upset Megan Gustafson and Iowa, this is a good opportunity to check in on former Lynx star Lindsay Whalen’s team at the end of her first year as head coach.

Minnesota averages 99.1 points per 100 possessions, in the 80th percentile of Division I teams. Kenisha Bell leads the Gophers offense with 18.9 points and 4.3 assists per game. Destiny Pitts adds 15.7 points per game and her 1.14 points per scoring attempt ranks in the top 10 percent of players. Jenn Hatfield argued that the Gophers might want to get the ball to Pitts more often and she has put up at least 21 points in Minnesota’s last six games. On defense, Minnesota holds opponents to 84.9 points per 100 possessions, in the top 15 percent of teams. The Gophers are not strong perimeter defenders, ranking in the bottom two-thirds of teams in opponent three-point percentage, but this shouldn’t be an issue given Iowa’s low three-point rate.

Iowa finished second in the Big Ten regular season, earning a bye to the quarterfinals. The Hawkeyes have been strong on offense this season, averaging 1.19 points per scoring attempt, second-highest in the country. Big Ten Player of the Year Gustafson is a major factor in Iowa’s success. She leads the country with 27.7 points per game, 1.46 points per scoring attempt, and 70.8 percent shooting. Iowa also has three additional players averaging double-digit points per game: Kathleen Doyle (12.9), Hannah Stewart (11.4), and Tania Davis (10.8). Tune in to watch this high-powered offense try to make their way to the semifinals.

Pac-12 Semifinals Game 2: #11 Oregon State vs. #7 Stanford — 3/9 at 11:30 PM (Pac-12 Network)

Update: Oregon State fell to Washington in the quarterfinals. Stanford beat Cal in the quarterfinals and will move on to face the Huskies in the semifinals.

This game is certainly not guaranteed, with Stanford likely facing Kristine Anigwe and Cal in the quarterfinals and Oregon State likely facing Megan Huff and Utah. Stanford won their regular season match-up against Oregon State 61–44, but don’t count the Beavers out. The Pac-12 has been full of upsets this year, including an Oregon State win over №5 Oregon, a team that beat Stanford by 48 points in Maples Pavilion. The winner of this match-up is likely to face Oregon in the conference tournament finals.

Oregon State’s offense averages 111.5 points per 100 possessions, 11th highest in the country. They are efficient scorers, averaging 1.15 points per scoring attempt, which ranks sixth in the country. Destiny Slocum and Mikayla Pivec both rank in the top 10 percent of players in points per game (16.1 and 14.6, respectively), assists per game (4.7 and 3.2) and effective field goal percentage (54.4% and 57.9%). Strong three-point shooter Aleah Goodman could have a big night; the Cardinal rank near the bottom 20 percent of teams in opponent three-point percentage. On defense, the Beavers limit opponents to 0.85 points per scoring attempt, the eighth-lowest in Division I.

Stanford has also been strong offensively, averaging 106.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking 18th in the country. Three players rank in the top 10 percent in points per game: Alanna Smith (19.7), Kiana Williams (14.0), and Dijonai Carrington (13.7). Stanford is also effective on defense and they limited Oregon State to just 0.72 points per scoring attempt in their last meeting. The Cardinal are especially strong in the paint, blocking 13.0 percent of opponent two-point attempts, the 16th highest block rate in the country. Tune in to find out who will advance to the Pac-12 finals.

Big 12 Semifinals Game 2: #19 Iowa State vs. #21 Texas — 3/10 at 8:00 PM (FS1)

Update: Texas beat TCU and Iowa State beat Kansas. The teams will face off in the semifinals.

Both Iowa State and Texas earned byes to the quarterfinals. The Cyclones will face either Kansas or Oklahoma State while the Longhorns will face TCU. Iowa State ranks eighth in Her Hoop Stats Rating while Texas ranks 26th, but the teams split their regular season match-ups. The winner is likely to play Baylor, who is undefeated in conference play, in the championship game on Monday.

Iowa State’s offense has been strong this season, averaging 106.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking 17th in the country. Bridget Carleton leads the Cyclones on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 10 percent of players in usage rate (28.2%), points per game (21.9), assists per game (4.2), points per scoring attempt (1.18), steal rate (3.5%), and blocks per game (1.4). Iowa State ranks in the top 10 percent of teams in defensive rebound rate, grabbing 73.5 percent of defensive rebound opportunities, but they’ll be challenged by Texas, who rank fourth in offensive rebound rate.

Texas ranks in the top 15 percent of teams with 100.9 points per 100 possessions and 44.2 percent shooting. Their scoring comes largely from inside; only 21.8 percent of their scoring attempts are from three, ranking in the bottom 15 percent in Division I. Three Longhorns average double-digit points per game: Sug Sutton (12.8), Joyner Holmes (11.7), and Danni Williams (10.9). On defense, the Longhorns hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting from two, but they weren’t able to slow down Iowa State in their last meeting. They will need to step up defensively to make it to the Big 12 championship game.

Please note all statistics are compiled from Her Hoop Stats and are current through games played 3/5/2019.

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