Top 5 Games to Watch — February 4th — February 10th

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Her Hoop Stats

7 min readFeb 4, 2019

This week’s games to watch include four top 25 match-ups and feature four top 10 teams. Before we get to the Her Hoop Stats games to watch, take a look at the results from last week’s games.

Her Hoop Stats Top 5 Games to Watch this week:

#1 Baylor at #14 Texas — 2/4 at 7 PM (ESPN2)

The No. 1 team in the country, Baylor, is undefeated in Big 12 play. Texas is second in the conference with two Big 12 losses and will be looking to close the gap. Expect a battle of the boards. Baylor leads the country in rebounding, grabbing 61.3 percent of rebound opportunities, while Texas is not far behind, ranking third and grabbing 58.5 percent of rebound opportunities. This will be especially evident on the Longhorns’ end of the court. The Lady Bears rebound 76.6 percent of their opponent’s misses, first in the country, while the Longhorns rebound 44.5 percent of their own misses, second in the country.

Baylor’s smothering defense in the paint has been a major factor in their 19–1 record. They hold opponents to 30.8 percent shooting, first in the country, and block an astounding 22.1 percent of opponent two-point attempts, six percentage points higher than any other Division I team. The Lady Bears are also efficient scorers, with a 53.7 effective field goal percentage and 1.11 points per scoring attempt. Senior Kalani Brown leads the offense, ranking in the top five percent of players in points per game (15.8) and points per scoring attempt (1.29). Baylor’s only loss came when Stanford was able to limit Brown to 5 points, but she’s not their only offensive weapon. Juicy Landrum, Lauren Cox, and Chloe Jackson all average double-digit points per game and have each put up at least one 20-plus point performance this season.

Texas has had mixed results this season, losing against three of the seven Her Hoop Stats Rating top 50 teams they have faced and against Kansas State, 78th in HHS Rating. The Longhorns shoot 45.3 percent from the floor, 23rd in the country, and have four players averaging 10 or more points per game: Sug Sutton, Joyner Holmes, Jatarie White, and Danni Williams. They could struggle against Baylor’s tough defense. The Longhorns score only 20.9 percent of points from three and the Lady Bears hold their opponents to just 30.4 percent from two, first in the country.

#9 NC State at #24 Florida State — 2/7 at 7 PM (ACCN Extra)

NC State face their first ranked opponent, Florida State. The Woflpack were the last remaining undefeated team until Sunday’s loss to North Carolina. NC State’s record comes against a relatively easy schedule, having faced only one team in the HHS Rating top 25 and four in the top 50. They will face a tough ACC slate over the next few weeks, including match-ups against Notre Dame and Louisville. Tune in to see if they can start a new winning streak in Tallahassee.

NC State’s success this season is even more impressive given that they lost two key players to season-ending injuries, Kaila Ealey and Grace Hunter. Offensively, the Wolfpack rank in the top 10 percent of teams in the country with 1.08 points per scoring attempt and shoot 52.5 percent from two, top five percent in the country. Kiara Leslie ranks in the top 10 percent of players with 15.4 points per game and point guard Aislinn Konig, replacing Ealey, is in the top three percent of players in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.12. Defensively, the Wolfpack hold their opponents to 0.83 points per scoring attempt, seventh in the country.

Florida State’s defense ranks 26th in the Her Hoop Stats Defensive Rating. They hold their opponents to 83.4 points per 100 possessions and 0.94 points per scoring attempt. Offensively, they have two players ranking in the top 10 percent in points per game, Kiah Gillespie (17.4) and Nicki Ekhomu (14.1). They are strong offensive rebounders, grabbing 38 percent of their own misses, but they will be challenged by NC State, whose 74.8 percent defensive rebounding rate is 11th in the country.

#23 Michigan State at #16 Iowa — 2/7 at 9 PM (BTN)

Two powerhouse offenses face off as Michigan State travels to Iowa City in this Big Ten match-up. Iowa, currently third in the Big Ten, will be battling to move up in conference rankings after their recent loss to Michigan. Expect a high-scoring game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in Division I in points per game and in the bottom half in opponent points per game.

Michigan State’s offense is built on team play. 69.7 percent of their field goals come off an assist, sixth-highest for Division I teams. Taryn McCutcheon, Nia Clouden, and Shay Colley average at least 3.8 assists per game, which ranks in the top 10 percent of players nationally. Additionally, McCutcheon, Clouden, Colley and leading scorer Jenna Allen all average double-digit points per game. By spreading the ball around, the Spartans have averaged 1.10 points per scoring attempt and 107.5 points per 100 possessions.

Iowa’s offense is even more prolific. They average 113.3 points per 100 possessions and 1.19 points per scoring attempt. Their 70.8 percent assisted shot rate is fifth in the country and they also have three players in the top 10 percent in assists per game: Tania Davis (4.8), Kathleen Doyle (5.7), and Mackenzie Meyer (4.4). The difference is Megan Gustafson, who leads the country in scoring, averaging 26.6 points per game. On top of Gustafson, the Hawkeyes also have three other players averaging double-digit points per game: Davis (10.9), Doyle (12.5), and Hannah Stewart (12.0). Watch to see if the Spartans can match Iowa’s offensive production.

Tennessee at #6 Mississippi State — 2/10 at 2 PM (ESPN)

An embattled Tennessee team broke their historic losing streak and has four SEC wins, but they’ll face a huge challenge Sunday at Humphrey Coliseum. Mississippi State, first in Her Hoop Stats Rating, have outscored their opponents by an average of 34.7 points. They are undefeated in the SEC and their only loss came at Oregon. The Lady Vols will need to step up offensively to match the Bulldogs in scoring, which won’t be an easy task against Mississippi State’s stifling defense.

Rennia Davis and Evina Westbrook lead Tennessee in scoring with 14.1 and 16.0 points per game respectively. Westbrook is in the top three percent of players in the country in assist rate, assisting on 32.2 percent of her teammates’ field goals when she’s on the court. Look for the Lady Vols to challenge the Bulldogs on the boards. Both are in the top 10 teams in the country in total rebounding rate, with Tennessee grabbing 57.1 percent of rebound opportunities and Mississippi State grabbing 60.3 percent.

Mississippi State has been dominant on both sides of the court this season. The Bulldogs are second in the country in points per 100 possessions (123.0) and opponent points per 100 possessions (75.8). They rank in the top 10 teams in field goal percentage (50.0%), points per scoring attempt (1.14), block rate (15.3%), and opponent two-point percentage (37.2%). Senior Teaira McCowan averages 17.1 points per game and leads the country in rebounding rate, grabbing 27.2% of rebound opportunities. She is in the top one percent of players in blocks per game and field goal percentage. It will be tough for Tennessee to overcome such a strong opponent, but McCowan and the Bulldogs are entertaining to watch either way.

#3 Oregon at #11 Stanford — 2/10 at 4 PM (ESPN2)

Oregon looks to remain undefeated in the Pac-12 as they travel to Stanford, 8–2 in conference play. This match-up is another meeting of offensive teams. Oregon averages 124.1 points per 100 possessions and Stanford averages 109.8 points per 100 possessions. Don’t expect many turnovers; both teams are in the top 20 in the country in turnover rate.

The Ducks are number one in Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating. They lead the country in effective field goal percentage (59.4%) and points per scoring attempt (1.23). Four Ducks (Maite Cazorla, Satou Sabally, Ruthy Hebard, and Erin Boley) are in the top 10 percent of players in points per scoring attempt and three (Sabrina Ionescu, Sabally, and Hebard) are in the top 10 percent in points per game. Oregon’s team offense is difficult to contain.

Stanford has also been very effective on offense. They rank 19th in the country with 1.11 points per scoring attempt and 16th with 53.3 effective field goal percentage. Alanna Smith leads the Cardinal in scoring, with 20.2 points per game, 1.26 points per scoring attempt, and 61.0 effective field goal percentage, all in the top three percent of Division I players. She has support from Kiana Williams (14.4 points per game) and Dijonai Carrington (14.0 points per game). Find out who prevails in this Pac-12 offensive showdown.

Please note all statistics and rankings listed above are as of 2/4/2019.

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