Top 5 Games to Watch — January 28th — February 3rd

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Her Hoop Stats

7 min readJan 28, 2019

This week’s list features three top 25 match-ups, including a meeting between No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Louisville. Before we get to the Her Hoop Stats games to watch, take a look at the results from last week’s games.

Her Hoop Stats Top 5 Games to Watch for this week:

West Virginia at #12 Texas — 1/28 at 8 pm ET (FS1)

West Virginia travels to Texas for their second meeting this month. In their first match-up, the Mountaineers led at halftime, but they couldn’t keep pace with the Longhorns in the second half and fell 70–58. The teams have similar Her Hoop Stats Ratings (26 for West Virginia and 20 for Texas), but West Virginia lost to four of the five HHS Top 50 teams they’ve faced while Texas only lost two of their six HHS Top 50 match-ups.

West Virginia has seen plenty of roster changes, with Katrina Pardee suffering an ankle injury, Kysre Gondrezick playing only five games due to personal reasons, and transfer Lucky Rudd gaining eligibility after the fall semester. The Mountaineers have been very effective defensively, holding their opponents to 76.1 points per 100 possessions, third in the country. In addition to limiting their opponents to just 0.84 points per scoring attempt, which ranks ninth in the country, they also get a steal on 14.2 percent of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 28th. Three active Mountaineers average at least 1.5 steals per game: Tynice Martin, Naomi Davenport, and Rudd.

Texas also has a strong defense, limiting their opponents to just 0.90 points per scoring attempt and 36.5 percent shooting, both in the top 15 percent in the country. They rank third overall in total rebounding rate, grabbing 58.7 percent of rebound opportunities. Joyner Holmes, who returned to the court in December after ankle surgery, ranks in the top five percent of players in the country in offensive rebounding rate (13.1%). Sug Sutton leads the team offensively with 13.1 points and 5.5 assists per game, but she has plenty of help. Danni Williams, Jatarie White, and Holmes average double-digit points per game and Destiny Littleton averages 9.7 points per game. This balanced offense proved too much for West Virginia to handle in their last meeting.

#16 South Carolina at #19 Kentucky— 1/31 at 6:30 pm ET (SEC Network)

The Gamecocks head to Lexington in this SEC battle. South Carolina is 5–1 in conference play and Kentucky is 4–3. Both teams have strong offenses, with the Gamecocks averaging 104.2 points per 100 possessions and the Wildcats averaging 104.1 points per 100 possessions. Tune in to see if Kentucky’s defense, which has limited opponents to 80.3 points per 100 possessions, can slow down South Carolina’s scoring.

Dawn Staley’s team struggled early in the season but have hit their stride offensively by distributing playing time to a number of players. Mikiah Herbert Harrigan has scored in double digits in each of their SEC matches, but Tyasha Harris, Te’a Cooper, Alexis Jennings, and Bianca Cuevas-Moore have all made strong scoring contributions as well. Look for the Gamecocks to have a big night on the offensive glass. They rate in the top 10 percent in offensive rebounding rate (38.9%) while the Wildcats are in the bottom 30 percent in defensive rebounding rate (65.0%).

Kentucky has the edge defensively, allowing just 57.3 points per game. The Wildcats excel at forcing turnovers; their opponents turn the ball over on 27.5 percent of possessions, which is the third-highest opponent turnover rate in the country. Both Rhyne Howard and Taylor Murray are in the top three percent of players in steals per game, and the Wildcats steal the ball on 15.8% of opponent possessions. They will face a challenge against the Gamecocks, who only turn the ball over on 16.1% of their possessions, which ranks in the top 10 percent in Division I.

#2 UConn at #3 Louisville— 1/31 at 7:00 pm ET (ESPN)

Don’t miss UConn and Louisville battling for position in the polls on ESPN. Each team’s only loss this season has come at the hands of another top-five team, with UConn falling to Baylor and Louisville to Notre Dame. Both have dominated offensively; the Huskies average 115.7 points per 100 possessions and the Cardinals are close behind with 112.4 points per 100 possessions. Watch to see if UConn’s team scoring and formidable defense can beat Louisville’s offense led by senior guard Asia Durr.

UConn’s defense has been powerful this season. They have limited their opponents to 0.80 points per scoring attempt, second among Division I teams, and 76.0 points per 100 possessions. They also lead the country in foul rate, committing a foul on just 16.8 percent of possessions. Offensively, they rely on balanced scoring. Five players average double-figure points per game: Katie Lou Samuelson (18.8), Napheesa Collier (18.6), Crystal Dangerfield (12.9), Megan Walker (12.9), and Christyn Williams (11.1). All five also rank in the top 10 percent of players in points per scoring attempt. With the fifth-highest effective field goal percentage of all teams in the country (55.3%), UConn is tough to stop.

Louisville is also an offensive powerhouse, ranking fourth in points per scoring attempt (1.16) and eighth in effective field goal percentage (54.8%). In contrast to UConn, Louisville’s offense relies heavily on one player, superstar Durr. 31.3 percent of plays when she’s on the floor end with Durr shooting, getting to the line, or committing a turnover; this usage rate is in the top two percent of players nationally. Durr has been an effective scorer, ranking in the top one percent of players with 21.1 points per game and in the top 10 percent with 1.17 points per scoring attempt. UConn’s stifling defense will try to limit her scoring and make the Cardinals rely on the rest of their roster.

Arizona at #21 Arizona State — 2/1 at 8:00 pm ET (Pac-12 Network)

The first of two Pac-12 battles in this week’s list features two teams that are closely matched in points per 100 possessions (101.3 for Arizona and 102.7 for Arizona State) and opponent’s points per 100 possessions (86.9 for both teams). The teams have similar records, but Arizona State’s schedule has been far more challenging, ranking fifth in opponent average win percentage (65.1%). Expect a defensive battle with each team trying to contain the other’s star scorer.

Offensively, the Wildcats rely heavily on redshirt sophomore Aari McDonald, who transferred from Washington last year. When she’s on the floor, 38.0 percent of Arizona’s plays end with her shooting, getting to the line, or turning the ball over. That’s the third-highest usage rate in the country. She averages 25.2 points per game, third in the country and twice the average of any other player on the team. She assists on 29.1 percent of her teammates’ field goals, top five percent nationally.

Kianna Ibis leads the Sun Devils offense, with 14.3 points per game. She averages 1.07 points per scoring attempt on 28.3 percent usage. She has stepped up her scoring recently, putting up more than 20 points in four of the last seven games, which she had only done once before in the season. Ibis will need to produce offensively against a tough Arizona defense for the Sun Devils to come out on top. In their last meeting, McDonald racked up 24 points while Ibis was held to 11; Arizona won 51–39.

#14 Utah at #9 Oregon State— 2/3 at 3:00 pm ET (Pac-12 Live Stream)

With both teams 7–1 in conference play, this showdown between Utah and Oregon State will have big implications for Pac-12 standings. Utah and Oregon State both have very efficient offenses, ranking in the top 10 teams in the country in field goal percentage (48.5% and 48.8%, respectively) effective field goal percentage (55.0% and 57.0%), and points per scoring attempt (1.15 and 1.18).

Utah cracked the top 25 AP poll for the first time since 2008 last week. They were undefeated until early January when they lost by just two points to Arizona State and senior Daneesha Provo suffered a torn ACL. They have won all six of their games since then, including an upset over Stanford. They’ll be challenged by No. 4 Oregon before heading to face the Beavers. 6'3" senior Megan Huff leads the team in scoring, averaging 19.7 points per game, ranking 29th in the country, and 1.21 points per scoring attempt, ranking 140th.

Junior Mikayla Pivec and redshirt sophomore Destiny Slocum lead Oregon State’s offense. Both rank in the top 10 percent of Division I players in points per game, assists per game, and points per scoring attempt. The Beavers are strong from the perimeter, shooting 42.1 percent from three, first in the nation. On the other end of the court, Pivec and Taya Corosdale are both in the top two percent nationally in defensive rebounds per game, averaging 6.7 and 6.5 respectively. Watch to see if they’ll be able to stop Utah’s winning streak.

Please note all statistics and rankings listed above are as of 1/28/2019.

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