Which players need more touches to take their teams to the next level?
The concept of sharing the ball is a cliché for a reason: everyone tries to do it because it works. But it is equally important to get the ball in the right player’s hands: your best shooter when you need a big three-pointer, the point guard when you’re facing a press, a post player when you see she has a mismatch inside.
Some teams have done a great job of getting the ball to their most efficient player with regularity. Take Iowa: senior Megan Gustafson is the nation’s leader in points per scoring attempt (PPSA), and she also has the highest usage rate on her team, which measures the percentage of Iowa’s possessions that end with Gustafson shooting the ball, getting to the free throw line, or turning the ball over. Over 30 percent of Iowa’s possessions with Gustafson on the court end with the ball in her hands, and she averages 1.45 PPSA. Rival Iowa State is similar in that the player in the Cyclones’ rotation with the highest usage rate (Bridget Carleton) is also very efficient; her 1.19 PPSA ranks in the 94th percentile nationally. It’s not a coincidence that Iowa and Iowa State are a combined 41–12 this season and both rank in the top 12 in Her Hoop Stats offensive rating.
Based on the advanced stats, other teams might consider sharing the ball a little differently than they have been this season. If a team’s highest-usage player is not a particularly efficient scorer, the head coach might consider running more plays for another player or even using the highest-usage player as a decoy to create space for others on offense.
Points per scoring attempt and usage rate don’t tell the whole story, of course — for example, a player might be scoring efficiently because she is only taking wide-open layups. In that case, her low usage and high PPSA wouldn’t necessarily mean that she should assume more of the scoring load. But there are several cases where a team would likely benefit from giving a certain low-usage, high efficiency player more touches on offense. As you read about each team, here’s a chart that divides players’ usage rates and PPSA into categories to give you a sense of how good or bad a given number is relative to all other players this season.
These teams have had uncharacteristic losing seasons this year, but looking ahead to next year, they might improve by giving a certain player more touches:
Duke: Head coach Joanne P. McCallie has acknowledged that junior Haley Gorecki, the team’s leading scorer, has had a lot on her plate this season. She’s averaging 17.6 PPG on 0.97 PPSA, and her usage rate of 30.0% leads the team. But Duke’s third-leading scorer, freshman Miela Goodchild, is averaging 1.27 PPSA and only using 18.5% of Duke’s possessions. Part of that is because Goodchild has been largely a three-point shooter this season, but if she can expand her game in the offseason and take some of the load off of Gorecki, Duke should benefit greatly.
Oklahoma: Sophomore Ana Llanusa has been excellent for the Sooners since her return from foot surgery, scoring 16.5 points per game and netting 1.04 points per scoring attempt. That efficiency ranks third on her team behind freshmen Taylor Robertson (13.5 PPG on 1.29 PPSA) and Jessi Murcer (9.0 PPG on 1.23 PPSA). But sophomore Shaina Pellington has the ball in her hands most often, posting a 32.9% usage rate and only 0.92 PPSA. Pellington has been a willing passer, averaging 2.8 assists per game; if she can find Llanusa, Robertson, and Murcer a little more often, Oklahoma might get back to the NCAA tournament sooner rather than later.
This team might want to shake something up this season to get off of the NCAA tournament bubble:
Minnesota: Head coach Lindsay Whalen might want to put her team’s destiny in the hands of Destiny Pitts. Pitts is using 22.0% of her team’s possessions and scoring 1.13 PPSA. Kenisha Bell, the team’s leading scorer, is a great player, but her PPSA is below-average at 0.94 and she’s using 32.9% of Minnesota’s possessions.
These mid-majors are top-three in their conference and could get into the NCAA tournament with a late push:
Furman: Practically everything Celena Taborn touches goes in: the forward ranks sixth in the country in field goal percentage (66.9%) and seventh in PPSA (1.38). But she’s taking nearly 10 fewer shots per game than the team’s leading scorer and highest-usage player, Le’Jzae Davidson. Furman might try to narrow the gap in shots in order to close the gap between itself and Mercer, the SoCon’s top team.
Middle Tennessee: Alex Johnson is not far behind Taborn, ranking among the top 50 players in effective field goal percentage (62.2%) and PPSA (1.30). But she’s using only 20.8% of possessions, which trails teammates Taylor Sutton (31.0% usage, 0.94 PPSA) and A’Queen Hayes (27.4% usage, 1.01 PPSA). Hayes, Johnson, and Sutton are the Blue Raiders’ top three scorers, but Johnson’s name should arguably be called more in crunch time.
New Mexico: Jaisa Nunn leads her team in PPSA (1.24) by a huge margin, but is only third in usage rate (22.5%). She is the Lobos’ leading scorer, and the team should arguably give her the ball even more and see how far she can carry them.
Yale: Camilla Emsbo is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 11.3 PPG on 1.06 PPSA. She’s scoring much more efficiently than the Bulldogs’ leader in points and usage rate, Roxy Barahman (0.97 PPSA), so Yale coach Alison Guth may want to lighten Barahman’s load as her team tries to dethrone Penn and make it to the NCAA tournament.
These teams could make a deep NCAA tournament run with a few tweaks:
Texas: Joyner Holmes has the highest usage rate of any Longhorn (31.7%), in part because she is so versatile on the offensive end. Her 0.98 PPSA is not bad, ranking in the 57th percentile, but it is the second lowest of any Longhorn who plays at least 10 minutes per game. If Texas needs points in the paint, head coach Karen Aston might want to draw something up for Jatarie White more often (1.09 PPSA, 24.2% usage), and likewise for Sug Sutton (1.11 PPSA, 22.0% usage) or Danni Williams (1.05 PPSA, 17.0% usage) if the team needs some perimeter scoring.
Texas A&M: Chennedy Carter takes a lot of shots for Texas A&M — nearly 20 per game — and uses over 37% of her team’s possessions, but Kayla Wells has developed into a more than capable sidekick. Wells is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 14.6 points per game on about 10 shot attempts. She only uses 21.1% of her team’s possessions, but she averages 1.15 points per scoring attempt, which is well above Carter’s 0.96 PPSA. If Carter can find Wells a few more times per game, this Batman and Robin duo could make it to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend.
Notre Dame: Even the defending national champions could stand to shake things up a little. Four of its five starters are averaging at least 1.21 PPSA, which ranks in the 96th percentile nationally. The one starter who is not, Arike Ogunbowale, is averaging a very good 1.09 PPSA, but is also using the most possessions on the team, with a usage rate of 30.2%. If her shots aren’t falling, she might look to find fellow guard Marina Mabrey (1.28 PPSA, 19.8% usage rate) or dump the ball inside to forward Brianna Turner (1.26 PPSA, 20.5% usage rate) more often.
If you’re still wondering how much of an impact sharing the ball differently could really have, take a look at the list below. Each of these players has a usage rate of at least 30%, which puts them in the 97th percentile nationally. They all also average at least 1.13 PPSA, which ranks in the 87th percentile.
Of the 12 teams represented on this list, eight are in first or second place in their conference, and all but one have winning records. Seven have been ranked in the Her Hoop Stats top 25 at some point this season. These teams know who to get the ball to, and it’s been paying off.
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