With Lindsay Whalen coaching, Minnesotans should still have plenty to cheer for

It’s hard to overstate how revered former University of Minnesota and Minnesota Lynx point guard Lindsay Whalen is in her home state. The Hutchinson product led her college team to the 2004 Final Four; won four WNBA titles with the Lynx; and represented her state on the USA national team, winning Olympic gold medals in 2012 and 2016. In the press conference announcing her retirement from the WNBA after the 2018 season, Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve called her “the state’s favorite daughter” and insisted that she “could run for governor and be successful.”

Happily for Minnesotans, they’ll still have ample opportunity to cheer on their favorite daughter next season — and perhaps watch her make another championship run before too long. Before the 2018 WNBA season, Whalen became the newest head coach of her alma mater, succeeding Marlene Stollings. Fans and media alike immediately cheered the move, despite Whalen having no previous coaching experience, and openly wondered whether Whalen could rekindle the magic of her 2004 Final Four run. Whalen then pledged in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune: “We made it to the Final Four when I played at the University of Minnesota. It is now my goal to bring a national championship to the University of Minnesota. […] I won’t stop working until that has happened.”

Amid all the excitement surrounding Whalen’s hire, less attention has been paid to the players she inherited. But on any team, it is ultimately the players who determine the outcome of games. Let’s look at what pieces Whalen has to work with and assess how optimistic Golden Gophers fans should be in Year One of the Whalen era.

The 2017–18 team:

In 2017–18, the University of Minnesota women’s basketball team went 24–9 and made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament (its best finish in nine years). Two All-League first team guards, redshirt junior Kenisha Bell (20.0 points per game) and senior Carlie Wagner (18.7 ppg), led the team to a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten Conference and a 13–2 home record. The team was particularly dangerous on offense, scoring the fifth-most points per game in the country last year at 84.9 and finishing in the top 30 in 3-point percentage, assists per game, and offensive rebounds per game.

This fall, Whalen has a 13-player team featuring four newcomers (three freshmen and one junior-college transfer). Three seniors from the 2017 team graduated, but three starters return.

The case for improvement in 2018–19:

The Golden Gophers return four of their top five scorers, their top three rebounders, and their top two assists leaders. The headliner is Bell, who will be hugely important for Minnesota in her final season. Beyond being a 20-point scorer and the only in-state player on Whalen’s roster, she averaged 6.8 assists per game last year, good for ninth in the nation. She also ranked in the top 50 nationally in points per game and steals per game (with a team-leading 2.6). In the Big Ten semifinals against Ohio State, Bell narrowly missed a triple-double, finishing with 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists.

To complement Bell, Minnesota has a talented and experienced supporting cast. Destiny Pitts was last year’s Big 10 Freshman of the Year, averaging 13.3 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. What’s more, she was extremely efficient, scoring 1.13 points per shot attempt and turning the ball over less often than all but 25 players (out of nearly 3,400) nationwide. Meanwhile, then-sophomore Gadiva Hubbard averaged 13.6 points per game and ranked in the top 10% nationally in assists (3.4) and steals (1.8) per game. This gives Whalen a lot of experience to work with, which is crucial considering she hired an all-new coaching staff and has never coached at any level herself.

The case for backsliding in 2018–19:

Wagner graduated as one of the best to ever wear a Minnesota uniform. She was the team’s best and most prolific three-point shooter last year and finished third on the Golden Gophers’ all-time scoring list with 2,215 points. (Interestingly, she was drafted in the third round by the Lynx, but cut before the season opener.) Without Wagner, will the team have enough outside shooting to prevent teams from clogging the paint? And how will the team replace nearly 19 points a game from a player who demanded so much attention from opposing defenses?

At the other end of the court, there are also question marks. Despite ranking 14th in the country in offensive efficiency (which is measured by points scored per 100 possessions), Minnesota only won enough games to warrant a 10-seed in the NCAA tournament. One culprit? Their defense, which ranked in the bottom quarter of all Division I teams in defensive efficiency. And that ranking — 277th out of 349 teams — was actually their best over the past four seasons, so it’s reasonable to wonder how much improvement is realistic in just a few months.

The X-factor:

Having an entirely new coaching staff from one year to the next always raises questions about team chemistry. Players and staff have to figure out how best to communicate with one another, raise the collective level of play, and create a new identity for the team and program. The staff does feature two former Golden Gophers assistant coaches, including Whalen’s college teammate Kelly Roysland, so that familiarity with the program may prove useful. And the team (sans Whalen) went on a foreign trip this summer, which afforded them valuable extra practice time and opportunities for team building. But if Whalen struggles to adjust to life on the sidelines, or players don’t fully buy in to playing for a rookie coach, the season could end sooner than expected.

My prediction:

2017–18 was a high-water mark for Minnesota in recent years, yet it seems wise to bet on at least a similar level of performance in 2018–19. The team returns several proven performers, and all of its assistant coaches either previously coached at UM (Roysland, Danielle O’Banion) or coached in the last two national championship games (Carly Thibault-DuDonis, with Mississippi State University). Add Whalen’s homegrown roots and winning pedigree, and it seems that, even if there are a few early stumbles as the team comes together, Minnesota has all it needs to challenge for a Big 10 championship this season.

All stats are compiled from the Minnesota women’s basketball website and Her Hoop Stats. If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year.