Is the age of the affordable classic car over?
Adam Weller finds out if the market for the motors of yesteryear is doomed to become an exclusive club, as Brexit and the ban on new petrol and diesel cars take their toll.
If you’re a car enthusiast, you will likely hold an appreciation for cars that are classics, or well on their way to being considered as such. Perhaps, you may even want to own one.
However, as it stands, classic car values are rising fast, which raises a question; is the market about to become largely inaccessible?
According to classic car expert and historic racing driver Sam Thomas, that may already be the case: “I think classic cars are disappearing as something that a normal guy can buy. I don’t think that [market] really exists anymore. I mean, Classic Minis used to be 2 or 3 grand; It’s now £9,000 for a project on eBay, and they’re rusted to bits.”
Thomas, who runs classic road and race car restoration firm Litre Classics, operates out of an unassuming industrial estate unit near Waterlooville. Inside the workshop, there is barely room to walk among the machinery, including a 1970s Formula One car and countless other historic road and race cars.
Perhaps surprisingly, only one car has doubled its worth since it arrived.
The car in question sits beneath a dust sheet — Thomas’ E46 BMW M3, built in the early-2000s. While it was bought for roughly £8,000 five years ago, he has recently received an offer of £17,000 from a car dealership.
This pattern will only continue in the coming years, he says: “Take my [2012] Audi RS4. It’s just a V8. It’s not turbocharged or anything like that, and I think those are going to be the things that people will love forever.”
Indeed, examples such as Thomas’ RS4 and M3 are well-loved, thanks in part to the naturally-aspirated car coming close to expulsion on the new car market. Many enthusiasts believe that cars which rely on turbocharging lose some of the more theatrical driving dynamics and noise that many will label as ‘soul’.
Some are starting to turn away from the current offerings in favour of these older, arguably purer cars. And, with new petrol and diesel cars set to be banned from sale in 2040, we could see something of an arms race to buy up the iconic remnants of 20th and early 21st century motoring.
This means that cars such as Thomas’ M3 — the last variant of the iconic model to utilise BMW’s traditional straight-six engine — are becoming extremely sought-after.
With that said, the M3 — a variant of the ordinary 3 Series BMW — has never been close to the bottom of the used or ‘future classic’ car markets. But even the market’s low-end is rising, according to journalist Ian Seabrook, who documents his adventures with ‘the cars no-one dares talk about’ on his HubNut YouTube channel.
He said: “I recently got a Skoda Favorit. There’s so few left that they are starting to become collectable. And, if you look at the earlier rear-engined generation, values for those have already risen to a strong degree. That also applies to Ladas and other dreadful 80s cars!”
According to Seabrook, the Favorit — a car that carries the dubious qualities expected from a product of the USSR’s dying days — was worth less than £200 just five years ago. Now, good examples can cost over £1,000, with some even stretching to £2,000.
However, when pressed on the issue of whether this price rise will continue to the point where almost anything petrol or diesel-powered will become unobtainable, Seabrook stated that the opposite may prove to be true.
“I don’t think everything will go up [to that point]. It may even harm values as the cars become unusable. Because, where are all these collectors’ cars going to sit? It’s interesting times ahead — we just don’t really know how it’s going to pan out.”
While there are still many years to come before 2040, there is also a more imminent issue that will make being a classic car custodian much harder; Brexit.
Seabrook explained: “Brexit is definitely going to have an effect. Given I’ve been buying parts for my Citroen 2CV from a company in The Netherlands, it’s deeply worrying. Are companies sending stuff to me just going to one day say “well, maybe we won’t send anything to the UK, it’s more trouble than it’s worth.”
Across the community, it is clear that Seabrook’s concerns are widespread.
But according to Vikki Little, an automotive marketing expert and Managing Director of Feisty Consultancy, start-ups may come in to solve any car parts crisis that may arise out of Brexit: “As a small country, we are particularly entrepreneurial, and we have a huge amount of experience in the car industry.
“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if [Brexit] didn’t produce a number of smaller start-ups and entrepreneurial types. People understand there’s a market for [classic car parts] and that said market is changing. I would imagine there are people talking about it already.”
As it stands, classic car enthusiasts are set to take on numerous hurdles, whether they want to buy or maintain. But to get back to the original question — is the age of the obtainable classic car approaching its end, if it hasn’t got there already?
Sam Thomas summarised his thoughts: “Classic cars will only get more expensive. For the average guy to go and spend £10–13,000… it’s stupid money. We’re looking at that almost not being enough for a house deposit anymore; it’s crazy.”
However, Thomas provided a reminder that some will benefit from the market’s trajectory.
As we finished our conversation while wandering among his clients’ priceless play things, he quipped: “I think there will be less restoration companies, which in turn will charge more money, and it will all become quite niche. Is that good or bad? I don’t know, it depends where you stand.”
