All About That Base
You get a base. You get a base. Everyone gets a Base.
In 2018, the news that a new Naval Base is being built in the waters of the Asia Pacific will not sound new — since 2015 China has constructed about 29 hectares of land in the South China Sea. But maybe if the base-building is to be done by the United States, it could prove to be a noteworthy development. One Indonesia should pay attention to.
Warm Waters
While China has steamed ahead with the construction and fortification of islands it claims to be it’s territory, US approach to the issue has been mostly focused on bolstering it’s allies in the region through exercises and partnerships. The factors on why US has not been more pro-active in responding to China are many and debatable:
The US may not want to pour its resources into a great power competition in the pacific when it is still trying to recover from billions of dollars spent in the war in Afghanistan. Evidence seems also to point that the US Navy is struggling to maintain the readiness of it’s Fleet — which would be it’s primary tool of deterring a war in Pacific.
The other reason is of course Donald Trump. The America First Policy and the move to focus on domestic issues, industry, and Trade has momentarily pulled the focus away from a China. Additionally Trump’s fascination with authoritarian leaders seems to cloud his judgment of China’s ambitions for the pacific (at least until they begin to threaten US businesses).
However, signs point that US is finally redirecting it’s attention to China and the waters of the Indo-Pacific. Secretary of Defense James Mattis at the Shangri-La Conference in June stated that Indo-Pacific has become it’s main priority. This came along with continued presence of the US Fleet in waters close to China and more exercises in those same waters.
A Base Too Far?
While US continues to practice drills in Asia Pacific and has event sent warships through the Taiwan Strait, US joining the rebuilding of Lombrum Naval base on Papua New Guinea sends a clear message to China : two can play at this game.
As Indonesia’s next door neighbor welcomes the joint construction of a US Naval base, Indonesia must wonder about the future of it’s own waters and Navy.
While it is no slouch, the Indonesian Navy is openly a Green Water navy — meaning it’s geared towards operating in territorial and EEZ waters and not International Waters. Indonesia and it’s ASEAN contemporaries all beginning to realize how precarious their situation is. Their relatively small navies will soon have to defend one of the most important sea lanes where billions of tons of cargo pass and trillions of dollars in economies lie.
Indonesia’s problem lies in its allergy towards cooperating with Great Power countries. Harking back to it’s rebirth from colony to independent state, it holds a disdain for the competition that was the Cold War. But as the conflict continued, and its neighbours rose and fell in coups, revolutions, and civil wars. Disdain towards Great Power Competition becomes disdain for Great Powers Themselves.
This sentiment carries onward into the 21st century, where paranoia still reigns. Parts of the population still believe the US and China are interested in toppling government and oppressing the muslim majority. Protectionist and isolationist rhetoric grow more and more popular with every election — allowing this sentiment to grow further.
This comes at a time where the whole world looks toward the citizens of Indonesia — and ASEAN as whole — to step up their diplomacy and better handle the situation in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. Papua New Guinea, while not a member of the 10 states of ASEAN, have begun a trend that allow for US forces to station regularly. Now there are rumors that China will build a Naval Base in Cambodia, although Cambodian Premier Hun Sen has staunchly denied this.
It should not come a surprise that as China begins to fortify its installations in the South China Sea, the US partners with PNG and Australia to build this base. The last US military installation in Southeast Asia closed in 1992 when the US and the Philippines signed a treaty in returning the Base to the Philippines. Since then there has not been has not been a base in Southeast Asia, although the Island of Guam has given the US a place to operate in proximity of Southeast Asia. And now that the US has secured the joint cooperation, the cycle repeats once more.
The fear is that more bases and installations crop up, that threaten not only the security of the region, but the unity of ASEAN itself. However, governments have been slow to cooperate, and ASEAN looks disunited in the messages they send and the cooperation they set up. Even individual countries are sending mixed messages .Such as Duterte’s acceptance of assistance from both US and China, and Indonesia’s welcoming of China’s Belt and Road initiative, while continue in Naval exercises with the US.
A large conflict is not an inevitability in the Pacific. Many scholars think that a coexistence can still exist. However, Indonesia and countries of the ASEAN must step it’s role in deciding how much influence can both China and the US have in the Indo-Pacific.
