The Dangers of Rigged Indirect Elections in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia: Although far from being free and fair, Somalia’s indirect elections, in the past two decades, have produced outcomes that were largely acceptable to political stakeholders as well as the majority of the population.

This year, the delaying tactics of those leading the process, their arbitrary selection of the senators, and the self-serving agreements they reached might lead to a contested result and political instability in the country. In other words, if the politicians’ gerrymandering of the indirect electoral process continues unchecked, Somalia’s state-building project might unravel.

The genesis of the current problems was the failure of the Federal Government of Somalia to organize a one-person, one-vote election (locally, regionally and nationally) during its mandate from 2017–2021. The Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States were therefore forced to negotiate a series of political agreements that culminated in the 17 September 2020 indirect election pact, with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble charged with leading the implementation process.

The National Consultative Council (NCC) has reached its second indirect election agreement on May 27, 2021 — just months after the legal mandate of the parliament expired on December 2020 and the president’s term ended on 8 February 2021. An attempt by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and the leadership of the parliament’s Lower House to implement a two-year term extension sparked violent clashes in Mogadishu in April and May 2021. Domestic outcry and international pressure forced the president and the Lower House to reverse the extension.

To expedite the process and to protect its already damaged integrity, the NCC began to work to finalize the indirect electoral model. The NCC consists of the five presidents of the Federal Member States (Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Southwest and Jubbaland) and Prime Minister Roble who is the chair.

Throughout 2020 and 2021, the leadership of the Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States have met several times, often in an acrimonious atmosphere. President Farmaajo, two key states (Puntland and Jubbaland) as well as the Senate leadership, the Mogadishu based opposition groups and presidential candidates were all at loggerheads.

After the protracted negotiations, invariably fraught with walkouts and uncompromising stances, the political stakeholders decided to use previous indirect elections experiences as a roadmap and reached an understanding on the key parameters of the indirect electoral arrangements. Subsequently, the prime minister and the leaders of the five member states issued a communiqué on 22 August 2021 detailing the senate and Lower House electoral modalities.

The FGS president and the leadership of the federal member states initially agreed to organize an indirect election on 17 September 2020. The election committees have been in place more than one year. Interestingly, the senate selection process has taken the NCC more than four months while the indirect election for the members of the House of the People has just started.

Three reasons are often given for the slow process. First is the power struggle between the president and the prime minister over the control of the security agencies and the case of the missing security officer, Ikran Tahlil.

Second, the NCC leaders have not demonstrated political will in implementing the indirect elections. In fact, most of the FMS leaders were delaying the process because they wanted to change two of the articles of the 17-Septmber agreement — that is changing the election locations from two cities to one city and reducing the delegates from 101 to 51 delegates. For many observers, revisiting the 17-September 2020 agreement is not practical at this time — it will create more problems than it solves. Finally, the NCC leaders used the dispensation as a way of securing financial support from the international community.

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English version: https://bit.ly/32BTqKh

Somali version: https://bit.ly/3CU90gu