Year in Review 2020: State of Somalia Report(Summary)

During the reporting period, the political climate of the country was animated by disputes over the 2020 parliamentary elections and the 2021 presidential elections. After signing an electoral bill into law in early February, president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo insisted that one-person, one-vote (OPOV) was the only legal poll that his government was willing to carry out. However, credible voices, including the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, noted the lack of adequate preparations to allow a universal suffrage elections to take place on time.

The debate over the practical and implementable electoral modality led to the unceremonious sacking of the longest serving prime minister in the history of Somalia, Hassan Ali Khaire, who fell out with President Farmaajo after three and half years of close partnership. Nearly two months later, President Farmaajo appointed Mohamed Hussien Roble, a political novice, as the new prime minister. In his first five months, Roble has largely toed the president’s line.

The federal government of Somalia continued to install its allies as presidents of federal member states. In February, a federal state minister, Ahmed Abdi Karie (Qoorqoor), was elected as the president of Galmudug. By all accounts, the election was rigged in his favor, forcing his rivals to boycott the polls. In November, another ally of the FGS leadership, Ali Guudlaawe, was installed as the president of Hirshabelle. The former vice president was also elected largely uncontested.

The Federal government of Somalia renewed the halting dialogue with Somaliland in 2020 with enthusiasm.

The Ethiopian prime minister brokered a meeting between President Farmaajo and Somaliland president Muse Bihi in Addis Ababa during which President Farmaajo apologized for the massacres committed by the military dictatorship in the 1980s. The Ethiopian prime minister pushed for a historic visit by President Farmaajo to Hargeisa, a prospect that appeared imminent until it was flatly rejected by the Somaliland government. A more subdued dialogue followed in Djibouti, and the outcome was underwhelming.

On the security front, al-Shabaab remained a potent threat to peace and security across the country. As its capability for traditional warfare diminished considerably as a result of intense air strikes by the US and ground operations by Somali forces and AMISOM, the group moved underground, and is slowly morphing into a mafia-like entity that prioritizes collecting taxes over armed struggle. Still, al-Shabaab managed to disrupt peace building and state building and forced the FGS and FMS operate out of large urban centers without the ability to move between cities.

During the reporting period, the economy of the country shrank as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its devastating impact. However, 2020 was a great year for Somalia in terms of debt relief.

The country has reached the so-called ‘decision point’ — a remarkable milestone that triggers reengagement with international financial institutions. The World Bank, the IMF and the African Development Bank have all cleared arrears on loans, and have normalized relations with Somalia.

The humanitarian situation continued to deteriorate. In 2020, UN agencies announced that a third of the population was in dire need of urgent humanitarian assistance due to the consequences of COVID-19, cyclical droughts, floods and desert locusts. The pandemic has had a deleterious impact on the health of the society.

Although the country has a very limited testing capacity, the federal ministry of health reported that out of the 81,000 people who were tested for suspected coronavirus, nearly 4,700 tested positive, with an average case fatality rate of about 2.8%.

On the external relations front, Somalia’s relationships with several key countries took a turn for the worse. Mogadishu severed ties with Kenya, and the relationship with Djibouti, a longstanding ally, is suffering. Similarly, the relationship with UAE remains frozen in mutual acrimony while the ties with Saudi Arabia remain cold. However, Somalia’s relationship with Ethiopia and Eritrea continued to thrive.

The relationship with Qatar and Turkey went from strength to strength, with strong economic and security cooperation.

The US and Europe continue to provide the largest humanitarian, economic and security support to Somalia, however, they maintain a distant relationship that is not proportional to their support.

The Trump administration withdrew several hundred American forces from Somalia as one of his final foreign policy actions. Looking ahead, 2021 is a make or break year for Somalia.

Depending on how political leaders at the FGS and FMS levels manage the ongoing crisis over the elections, the country could either return to a modicum of normalcy after relatively free and fair elections, or slide back into its dark past after a disputed election.

READ the FULL report: http://www.heritageinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SOS-REPORT-2020-Final-2.pdf