College Football’s Best Bets for 2016
Five of the best values from the SEC (all odds from Bovada).
Tennessee: Over 10 wins +135
If I’m not the conductor of the Tennessee hype train, then I definitely bought a first class ticket and I’m at the bar. I go more in depth about Tennessee later in this column, but they hired a great defensive coordinator in Bob Shoops, return the majority of their starters on offense and defense, and have a fairly easy schedule. Tennessee also hung 55 points on a very good Northwestern defense last year and pulled things together after a couple embarrassing early losses to Florida and Oklahoma.
Looking at their schedule, the only bump in the road comes against Alabama October 15th. As always, Alabama will be good, and will probably win 10 games for the umpteenth year in a row. However, Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa last fall and held a 14–13 lead until Derrick Henry ran into the end zone with 2:24 left to play. Tennessee now has the chance to avenge that loss at home and if you think they don’t have that game circled on their schedule, then you’ve got another thing coming. Taking down Alabama for the first time in ten years would be a major confidence booster for a team that can sense that they’re almost over the hump.
Outside of Alabama, I don’t really see any other games that worry me. Virginia Tech in the second week of the season might be tricky, but Tennessee isn’t breaking in a vast swath of talent and VT will have a new head coach for the first time since 1987. Tennessee should go 6–0 against the SEC East, as Florida, Vanderbilt, and Missouri don’t really have much of an offense, Georgia and South Carolina will be breaking in new quarterbacks (or starting mediocre old ones), and Kentucky…well, they’re always a 6–6 team who don’t pose much of a threat. Texas A&M the week before Alabama would be the trap game here, but there’s been so much turmoil down in College Station that graduate transfer Trevor Knight was named the starting quarterback. Knight doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence and could lose his job to Jake Hubenak by the time Tennessee rolls around. Hell, Kevin Sumlin could lose his job by the time Tennessee rolls around.
Tennessee is on the upswing with stability and talent. Take them over 10 wins at +135 and watch that money roll in.
Deshaun Watson for Heisman: +450
Do not pick Leonard Fournette for Heisman. Yes, he’s the favorite right now, but history is against him. Five of the last seven winners are quarterbacks and Deshaun Watson will usurp Fournette as the favorite as the season goes on. Watson and the Clemson Tigers are favored to make it back to the College Football Playoff this season, and team success does play a role in Heisman voting. LSU isn’t a bad team by any standards, they’ll probably start the season inside the AP Top 10, but Clemson has an easier schedule and more direct route to the College Football Playoff.
Watson figures to be in the spotlight after losing to Derrick Henry and being the the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. The simple fact is that as a quarterback, he’s going to impact more than a running back. He’s going to have the ball in his hands every offensive play of the game and will put up the requisite statistics to be a Heisman candidate.
Let’s also not forget that Fournette couldn’t sustain his otherworldly performance across the span of 12 games. Being a running back in the nation’s toughest conference does it’s damage to the body and it’s difficult to make it through a full season at 100%. Fournette’s chances of being hurt are much higher than Watson’s, just because of the position he plays.
+450 isn’t outstanding odds, but Watson is a surefire bet to make it to New York for the Heisman ceremony. He’s got a great story, his team will be successful, and he’s going to put up big numbers. I like Watson much better than Fournette or Stanford’s Christian McCaffery for Heisman.
Florida: Under 8 wins -105
Let’s break this down game by game:
UMass: No-brainer, Gators should win this one easily
Kentucky: Not a no-brainer, but still a game that Florida should win
North Texas: UNT was one of the worst teams in college football last season. Gators win this one by 30.
Tennessee (away): Florida squeaked by Tennessee last year thanks to a couple major breakdowns in the secondary. Tennessee will be even better than last year and may contend for the College Football Playoff. This would be a tough game at home, much less on the road.
Vanderbilt (away): I think Vanderbilt could surprise people this year. They’ve been trending up since Derek Mason took over as head coach and may actually have an offense this year to go along with a superb defense. With LSU at home the following week, this could be a trap game for the Gators.
LSU: The Tigers are favorites for the national title and should finish with 10 or more wins. They have a good defense, a world-beater in Leonard Fournette, and a hopefully-improved quarterback. Yes, this game is in the Swamp, but UF lost a lot of defensive talent and I don’t see them slowing down LSU’s rushing attack.
Mizzou: Mizzou is flying under the radar this season, with a potentially great defense and an offense that can only go up from last year’s abysmal performance. The Tigers front four will be a monster and the Gators’ offensive line wasn’t fantastic last year. This has the potential for a 14–10 slugfest that could go either way.
— BYE —
UGA: Both Nick Chubb and Sony Michel could be fully healthy by this point, which doesn’t bode well for Florida. The Gators lost a lot of depth on defense and Florida fans may have soured on Luke Del Rio as the starting quarterback by now. How the front seven handles the LSU game will tell a lot about which way this game could go.
Arkansas (away): I haven’t really been able to place a finger on how Arkansas will do this year. They could go 8–4 or 5–7. They have talent, but lost a lot of important pieces on both sides of the ball. With this being a road game, I’m not willing to say the Gators will win this one and also because I have no idea how the Razorbacks will fare this season.
South Carolina: South Carolina will be an atrocity to football this season. There’s holes at almost every position on the roster and Will Muschamp was a disappointment during his stint at Florida. I’m not sold on anything positive about this Gamecocks team, even if they come into this game fired up because it’s their coach’s old team.
Presbyterian: Another game the Gators will win by 30+ points
Florida State (away): Florida State will be very, very good this year. Their defense is absolutely loaded and Dalvin Cook will continue to run all over and past people. Florida will be on the road for this game and I just don’t see a scenario where Florida upsets the Seminoles.
There’s only five games that are locks as wins for the Gators (UNT, UMass, Presbyterian, UK, and SCAR). Going running the table against Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Georgia, and Mizzou will be difficult, particularly when only one of those is a true home game. Gator fans will tell you they’ll win nine games this season, but don’t listen to them. The tides are shifting in the SEC, and Florida is not the 10-win guarantee they used to be.
Georgia: Under 8.5 wins +110
Football at all levels is a quarterback driven game and it’s rare that great success is achieved without a great quarterback. Georgia’s most recent string of great success came at the hands of Aaron Murray, one the statistically best quarterbacks in SEC history. The Bulldogs have been trying to recapture those 10-win seasons ever since his departure via a historically great string of running backs. That plan was derailed by injuries and some questionable coaching, but with a new head coach and a freshman quarterback with Aaron Murray-like potential, there’s hope in Athens again.
But that’s the thing. New, doesn’t always mean good, particularly when it comes to quarterbacks. Greyson Lambert will return for one more season, so it’s not a guarantee that Jacob Eason will start. However, he’s a once-in-a-decade recruit and is the future of the program. Will he start the season as Georgia’s quarterback? Maybe not. Will he finish the season as the starting quarterback? 100%.
With the injury to Sony Michel, it’s now more likely that Lambert starts the season opener against UNC. Starting a freshman quarterback and no rushing attack for support against a team that won ten games last year might not be the best game plan. Lambert had a decent touchdown to interception ratio at 12:2, but there were a lot of times he looked overmatched. Lambert has the experience that Eason lacks, but he’s still just not very good.
The fact now Chubb and Michel will be recovering from injury not only will impact when Eason takes over, but also muddies the outlook of first four games of the season. UNC might not win ten games again, but they’ll still be very good. Georgia also faces Missouri on the road in Week 3, and the Tigers will have a very good, very aggressive defense. Lambert played awful against Mizzou last year in the Bulldogs 9–6 win, and with Georgia’s offensive line looking worse this year, could have a long day being chased down by Missouri’s stud defensive line. The following week, Georgia plays Ole Miss on the road and then will face Tennessee at home. Tennessee is a dark horse title contender and Georgia barely beat them last year. There’s a scenario where Georgia starts off the season 1–4 or 2–3.
If Georgia goes into their October 8th game against South Carolina with a sub-.500 record, it’s hard to see how Georgia runs the gauntlet the second half of the season. They’ll have to go undefeated the latter half of the season, taking down Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech. They do get all three games at home, but there’s going to be some serious regression on Georgia’s defense and they’ll probably be breaking in a freshman quarterback at that point. The Bulldogs would need a near-perfect situation for them to go 7–0 the second half of their season. With Georgia’s early trying schedule, injuries, and a new coach, they might be in a hole too deep to get to nine wins.
Tennessee: +1400 CFP Championship
This is the longest of shots, but hear me out. Tennessee has the talent, schedule, and coaching to make this bet pay off. I’ve already picked Tennessee as an 11-win team in 2016, and really as long as they win ten games they’ll win the SEC East and play in the SEC Championship game.
Now, here’s where things get tricky. Tennessee will probably have to beat either Alabama or LSU to win this game. They played Alabama close last year, losing 19–14 in the Tuscaloosa, at least proving that they can hang with an elite team. Tennessee will play Alabama at home Week 7, a game they can realistically win. Beating Alabama twice in one season is no small feat, but Alabama lost some Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and two of their three monstrous offensive linemen. Alabama isn’t particularly in a rebuilding year, but they weren’t the team they were a year ago.
As for LSU, the SEC Championship would be the first time these two teams face off since 2011, when the then top-ranked Tigers throttled Tennessee 38–7 in Neyland Stadium. This is obviously a very different team since then, but LSU is still led by Heisman front runner Leonard Fournette and a fearsome secondary. Slowing down Fournette will be the key to this game, and the Vols did sport an above average run defense last year. If Tennessee can protect the football and contain Fournette to 120 yards or less, they’ll win this game.
To win a championship, you either need an elite offense and very good defense, or vice versa. This sounds like an obvious statement, but plenty of teams have feasted on powderpuff schedules en route to a New Year’s Six bowl game. Tennessee finished 2015 as a top 25 offense, according to Football Outsiders, and should bump up inside the top 15 with the continued development of quarterback Joshua Dobbs and the weapons around him.
The defense was the biggest issue in 2015, finishing 50th in defensive efficiency. Butch Jones took a step towards solving this by luring Bob Shoop away from Penn State to be his defensive coordinator. In his two years in Happy Valley as defensive coordinator, the Nittany Lions finished as the fifth and 18th best defensive units in the nation. There’s plenty of talent on the roster for Shoop to play with, and he should be able to vault Tennessee into the top 25 of defensive efficiency.
Both the defense and offense should be well inside the top 25 in efficiency, but the X-factor will be special teams. Tennessee tied with Kansas State as the best special teams unit in the country, and will return Evan Berry, one of the top return specialists in the country. Berry ranked first in the nation in kickoff return average with an absurd 38.3 per return to go along with three return touchdowns. Having Berry returning kicks basically guarantees that the Vols will start at the 35 yard line or better. When you only need to go 60–65 yards to score, that helps an offense immensely.
If the Volunteers get into the College Football Playoff, it becomes murky. The Outback Bowl last fall was the first major bowl Tennessee had played in since the Peach Bowl in 2009. That’s a long drought, and there’s a definite lack of big game experience with this team. However, Clemson and Ohio State, both favorites for the national championship, lost a lot of talent to the NFL Draft this offseason.
That’s a lot of talent gone from those programs, and no team, regardless of the coach, gets through that without some bumps along the way. Both teams will reload, but could end up dropping a game or two along the way before they finally click. In comparison to Clemson and tOSU, here’s who Tennessee lost.
In my opinion, continuity > talent, and Tennessee has both. There’s no doubt that Tennessee is on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff, but there’s a realistic scenario where they win the whole shabang, and at +1400, there’s value to be found as a long shot bet.
