Must-Win Games for Each SEC Team: Part One
Here, CMAC looks at each game that holds the key to determining if a team’s season will be looked back on as a success or a failure. First up, Alabama and LSU.
Alabama/LSU: November 5th
At the point when Alabama and LSU face off in Baton Rouge, there’ll be only three weeks left in the season and both teams should be ranked inside the Top 10. There are some heavy, heavy playoff implications that come along with this game. The winner here likely represents the SEC West in the conference championship, and the winner of that game will make the College Football Playoff. If Alabama or LSU loses the SEC Championship and we have two SEC West teams with 11 wins, the committee will first turn towards the outcome of this game.
Here’s a very probable scenario: Tennessee makes the SEC Championship game with a 10–2 (5–1) record and LSU makes the game with an 11–1 (5–1) record. Tennessee beats LSU putting both teams at 11–2, with LSU having beaten Alabama and Tennessee losing to the Crimson Tide. LSU now holds a tiebreaker of sorts, having beat Nick Saban and Co., but LSU also just lost to the Volunteers. The Selection Committee is kind of at a stalemate. It’d be difficult to not include a SEC team in the College Football Playoff, because of both TV ratings and the quality of competition. The Selection Committee would certainly receive a lot of negative press selecting a Tennessee team that won the conference but had an easier schedule and lost to a team that LSU beat .
Here’s where we get back to the LSU-Alabama matchup. If LSU decisively wins this game and loses the SEC Championship, they still have a case to be in the College Football Playoff. They went 11–1 in the regular season, beat a very good Alabama team, and hold a win over a non-conference Power Five team, something Tennessee would lack (10–2 (5–1) would mean Tennessee lost to Virginia Tech in September). If LSU beats the Crimson Tide in the regular season while Tennessee loses to Alabama, there’s a real argument to be made for LSU for a playoff spot based off their resume if they lose the conference championship.
As for Alabama, if they beat LSU, they’re probably coming into the SEC Championship game at 11–1 having only lost to Tennessee. If Alabama wins the SEC Championship game, they’ll now be 2–1 against the two best teams in the conference to go along with a win over USC. The Selection Committee would almost have to select the Crimson Tide in this situation. Now, if Alabama loses to Tennessee both times around, the Vols pretty much lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff regardless of Alabama holding a win over LSU.
For Alabama or LSU to win a national championship, this game is their first hurdle. The winner of here will make the SEC Championship game, and at that point they control their own destiny.
Arkansas: Florida — November 5th
Arkansas hasn’t beaten Florida since the 1982 Blue Bonnet Bowl. These two teams faced off last in 2013, with Florida winning that matchup 30–20. Picking up a win over the Gators for the first time in 34 years would be huge. A win here also would probably make the Razorbacks bowl eligible in consecutive years for the first time since 2011–2012.
Arkansas could be a nine-win or a five-win team this year, and if they beat Florida, it’s more likely than not that they’re closer to nine wins than five. While there’s no playoff implications here, a win against UF would be a big confidence booster for Arkansas going into their final three games while positioning them for a better bowl game.
Auburn: Georgia — November 12th
With Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss on their schedule this year, Auburn automatically caps out as an eight win team. It’s doubtful they’ll win all eight other games, which makes this game against Georgia so important.
Auburn has a very easy non-conference schedule, playing Arkansas State, UL-Monroe, and Alabama A&M. That’s three wins right there. They’ll also get Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt at home, a huge benefit to the Tigers as those games are toss-ups. Auburn might not go 3–0 across that stretch, but 2–1 isn’t unrealistic. Auburn will travel to Starkville October 8th to take on Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are due for a massive recession and the Tigers should win on the road here.
This puts Auburn at 6–5, which makes this Georgia game so important. A 6–6 Auburn team is sure to get Gus Malzahn fired. Not counting his first year in 2012 when Auburn made the BCS National Championship, Malzahn is 15–11 (6–10) at Auburn and that seat is starting to get a little warm. There’s definite rumblings amongst the Auburn fan base that Malzahn has underperformed since that unbelieveable 2012 season.
There’s not much difference between 7–5 and 6–6, but if Malzahn can win the games he’s supposed to, take down Georgia on the road, isn’t fired before the postseason, and win their bowl game, perhaps eight wins is enough to keep him around for one more year.
Georgia: Florida — September 17th
Georgia could be 4–3, 3–4, or 2–5 by this point. If Georgia is 3–4 or 2–5, this game signifies an opportunity to turn the season around. If they win a big rivalry game over a quality opponent coming off a bye week, that’s a momentum booster to win out the rest of the season. A win over Florida could be the catalyst to a berth in a bowl game in Kirby Smart’s first season as head coach. This year result might not be the nine or ten wins Georgia fans were hoping for, but a bowl game in your head coach’s first season isn’t a failure by any means.
If Georgia comes into this game with a 4–3 record or better, well, now Georgia fans are feeling dandy. Sony Michel and Nick Chubb will be healed from their injuries by this point and Jacob Eason has settled in at quarterback. Smart has proven to be a solid head coach and picked up three conference wins plus one from North Carolina, Ole Miss, or Tennessee. This game will be a litmus test to see how Smart coaches in a big rivalry game. If Georgia is above .500 and they win this game, that’s even more of a energizer than it would be in the scenario where they’re .500 or worse. Georgia probably wins nine games if they take down Florida and Smart’s first year resembles that of his counterpart Jim McElwain’s first year at Florida.
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party signifies the difference between “O.K., it was Smart’s first year and he did decent. Let’s hope for improvement and 9+ wins next year.” and “O.K., it was Smart’s first year and he did great. Georgia is winning the SEC East in 2017.”
Florida: Mizzou — October 15th
With an offense looking for a starting quarterback, running back, and receiver; a litany off-field issues; and a defense that lost six starters, there’s definite reason to believe that Florida fans should brace themselves for a bit of a regression from last season’s SEC Championship game appearance.
Florida eases into their year with games against Massachusetts, Kentucky, and North Texas before they get into the meat of their schedule. Florida will then hit the road for two weeks to face Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Tennessee will definitely be favored over Florida and should win, but the second game in Tennessee may be a little less clear-cut. Florida will be the bettor’s favorite over Vanderbilt, but if I were a gambling man, my money’s on the Commodores. Vanderbilt will have a stacked defense and a much better offense. I think Vandy will take down the Gators for only the second time since 1988.
Florida returns to Gainesville for their annual game against LSU, who will be vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff this season. This game being in The Swamp will be give Gator fans hope, but LSU should easily handle this team. The Gators will be 3–3 coming into this game against Missouri, with two of those losses at the hands of two teams they historically beat (Florida is 63–29–2 all-time against the state of Tennessee #GoGata?).
Facing Missouri on Homecoming provides an opportunity to right the ship. They could pick up a win going into their bye week and give them some confidence for their game against Georgia on October 29th. Missouri won’t be an outstanding team by any means, they’ll likely go 6–6 or worse, but they’ll have a monster of a defense and the Florida-Missouri game has become quite competitive since Missouri’s addition to the SEC.
Since joining the SEC in 2012, the series is just 2–2, but both teams have picked up a win at home and away. Missouri blew out Florida 42–13 on the road in 2014 and Florida returned the favor last year, beating the Tigers 21–3 during their Homecoming game. Somehow, this annual matchup has proved to become Missouri’s first organic intraconference rival.
For Florida, this game offers the chance to get things back on track after a rough stretch. A loss to Missouri at home would be deflating, to say the least, as they’re widely viewed as the lesser team. There’re only two games after Missouri that are locks for a win (South Carolina and Presbyterian). Florida will have an emotionally charged game against Georgia, a game on the road in Arkansas, and then on the road against Florida State. Beating Missouri immensely helps Florida’s chances of finishing with a record better than the eight wins that Vegas currently has them pegged for.
Kentucky: Mississippi State — October 29th
Kentucky perennially finishes as one of the three worst teams in the SEC. Usually, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and either South Carolina or Mississippi State get lucky when they finish 7–5.
Kentucky seems destined for the same fate this year and Mark Stoops will probably be looking for a new job come January. Kentucky looks like a 3–9 team, with those wins coming against South Carolina, New Mexico State, Austin Peay. Wildcat fans might point to Southern Mississippi in their home opener as an opportunity for another win, but the Golden Eagles are not a bad team by any means. Southern Mississippi won nine games last year and has been the winningest Conference USA program since the conference’s inception. The Golden Eagles will not be a team that will just roll over and lose because Kentucky is a SEC team.
Mississippi State will be so important because it’s a winnable conference game at home against a team that has gained publicity with their recent success. Mississippi State is very much on the decline and Kentucky might catch them this year. They lost Dak Prescott, one the best quarterbacks in SEC history, their second-best receiver, best cornerback, and best defensive lineman. Mississippi State’s offense centered around Prescott doing just about everything while second-round draft pick Chris Jones was the lynchpin of a defense that already suffered an attrition of talent from the previous year.
This game provides a perfect opportunity for the Wildcats to pounce and steal a win. It’s a home game and Mississippi State will be traveling after facing BYU, who will be a good team with Tanner Mangum back for another year at quarterback. Kentucky could catch Mississippi State on an off week and pick up a feel-good win.
Mississippi State: Kentucky — October 29th
The departure of so much talent over the past two years finally takes its toll. Mississippi State had eight players drafted over the past two years, the same amount as the previous four years combined. Anytime there’s that much of an exodus of talent a team will suffer.
The witching hour is here for the Bulldogs and it’s going to be a rough year for fans in Starkville. There are major holes all along the roster, particularly on offense and in the secondary. Mississippi State also has the misfortune of playing Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss, three games where MSU will be a significant underdog (think minimum two touchdowns in each game).
Mississippi State gets an easy slate early on, playing South Alabama, South Carolina, and Massachusetts before their Week 5 bye. After that, it’s hard to pick out the definite wins. Auburn could be good, but nobody’s really sure. BYU will have a Tanner Mangum back, who’s looking like the next Brandon Weeden (the Oklahoma State version, not Cleveland). Samford on October 29th will be a win for the Bulldogs, but then they’ll face Texas A&M, Arkansas, Alabama, and Ole Miss and I’d be surprised if Mississippi State beat any of those teams.
Which brings us to Kentucky. Mississippi State’s reason for needing to beat Kentucky is very different than that of the Wildcats needing to beat Mississippi State. Kentucky is pretty much locked in to miss a bowl game. Mississippi State, however, is not. There are six winnable games on their schedule, and while I don’t know if the Bulldogs hit all six, Kentucky would be their fifth win with a near-guarantee win against Samford coming the following week.
Here’s how I envision Mississippi State’s season going: Start the season 3–1 going into their bye week, only losing to LSU. Come out of the bye and go 1–1 against Auburn and BYU. Take on Kentucky in Lexington, a game that could go either way where MSU will be favored, then grab their sixth win against Samford. Anything after that point is gravy. Kentucky will be the sixth win needed to qualify for a bowl game and it’s highly unlikely they’ll get it after this week.
Kentucky provides the last clear opportunity for Mississippi State to qualify for a bowl game. Mississippi State fans will need to accept the Dak Prescott era is over, and as tough as it is to accept that Mississippi State won’t be the cream of the crop anymore, that’s the reality. Beating Kentucky on the road to qualify for a bowl game will lessen the sting of the fall for Bulldog fans.
Next week: Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
