Must-Win Games for Each SEC Team: Part Two
Read Part One here:
Up this week: Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
Missouri: Vanderbilt — November 12th
Missouri had the ugliest two week stretch of football last season, even topping the likes of teams like North Texas and Southern Methodist. The first of those was a 9–6 loss to Georgia on the road in which neither team managed to average more than four yards per play and included two missed field goals to go along with approximately zero touchdowns scored.
The second game was against Vanderbilt, a 10–3 affair that featured two scoreless quarters, a total lack of offense on a per play basis, and a fumble lost by each team. The only touchdown scored was by Ralph Webb in the early part of the second quarter.
Vanderbilt and Missouri ran on parallel tracks last year as teams with a top-15 defense but no semblance of an offense. This year, both teams figure to mirror each other again as they’ll both return the majority of their defense and have settled on a starting quarterback which should give them an identity on offense and some consistency.
Missouri will face Vanderbilt at home this year and they’ll need to beat the Commodores to regain some face among the SEC community. Losing to Vanderbilt is almost always considered a black mark on a team’s season, considering the recruiting and talent limitations there due to stringent academics.
Vanderbilt will have one of the three best defenses in the SEC again, but their offense will still be considered below-average. Webb is a vastly underrated back, but he isn’t a Leonard Fournette or Derrick Henry-type who can carry a team game after game. Kyle Shurmur has been tabbed as the starting quarterback, and while he showed he could be a competent quarterback at times, he struggled with his accuracy, completing only 42.7% of his passes.
Even the slightest improvement on offense could be enough to put Missouri into a bowl game in Barry Odom’s first year. They have an easy non-conference schedule, will get Georgia (who will probably be starting a true freshman at quarterback) at home September 17th in a prime time game, and face “rival” Arkansas at home. There’s six games on the schedule that are winnable, including Vanderbilt. Missouri should be able to hold Vanderbilt to 10 points or less again, it’s just of matter the offense showing up.
Ole Miss: Florida State — September 5th
The addition of Florida State to Ole Miss’ schedule means the Rebels will play three teams vying for the national title in their first seven games. Because of this, Ole Miss will need an impressive start to the season rather than relying on a solid second-half to solidify their resume to a playoff spot thanks to the effect of recency bias.
Since it’s the first game of the season, it might be extreme to say, but Florida State is somewhat of a boom-or-bust game. Ole Miss has playoff hopes and playing the Seminoles will be a real eye-opener to see if the Rebels can hang with a legit title contender. Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly is vying with Deshaun Watson to be selected as the top overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft and his performance will dictate the success of this team. Kelly has a stable of receivers waiting to breakout, including Damore’ea Stringfellow, but it remains to be seen how he’ll play without Laquon Treadwell around. Treadwell had over 1,000 receiving yards last fall, helping Kelly adjust to the starting job after transferring to Oxford from East Mississippi Community College. Exacerbating the loss of Treadwell is the fact that Florida State has one of the best defensive units in the nation, led by one of college football’s best all-around defensive players in safety/linebacker/defensive end hybrid Derwin James.
Beating Florida State will be tough, but not impossible. Chad Kelly is one of the 10 best players in the conference and Ole Miss will have a high-octane offense rearing to go. If the Rebels can take down Florida State, it could give them the momentum needed to make it through a brutal first half schedule.
South Carolina: Kentucky — September 24th
South Carolina picked up one conference win last season, defeating Vanderbilt 19–10 at home on Halloween. Vanderbilt should be a bowl-eligible team this season, with a functioning offense and top-10 defense nationally. The Commodores will play South Carolina at home the first game of the season this year, and with the prospect of facing a true freshman quarterback and new head coach in Will Muschamp, it doesn’t seem likely South Carolina wins this game. Interestingly, Muschamp lost to Vanderbilt in 2013 during his three-year stint as head coach at Florida, making it the first time Florida had lost to Vanderbilt since 1988.
With Vanderbilt ready to burst onto the scene, the next best opportunity for a conference win comes against Kentucky. This is a road game for the Gamecocks, and Kentucky will probably be a four to six point the favorite. With a team like South Carolina, it’d be more preferable to choose a home game against an opponent coming off an emotionally draining win. However, with the current talent on the roster, there’s almost zero chance South Carolina beats Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, or Tennessee at home. Thus, we’re back at Kentucky.
A win at Kentucky could get the Gamecocks back to 2–2 after playing Vandy, Mississippi State, and East Carolina to start the season. Four of the five leading tacklers on the Wildcats are gone, including their best all-around player Josh Forrest. South Carolina has one of the better offensive lines in the conference and Kentucky will be replacing two of their four best defensive linemen, which could give the Gamecocks’ quarterback some breathing room to generate a bit of offense. If South Carolina limits their turnovers, keeps Perry Orth or Brandon McIlwain upright, and doesn’t let Kentucky’s two-headed rushing attack gain five yards at a time like last year, they could win this game with a couple lucky breaks.
Tennessee: Alabama — October 15th
There’s no other game on Tennessee’s schedule that they should lose. The SEC East will have a down year with three new head coaches in the division and no other team boasting the same level of talent that as Tennessee. If Alabama beats Tennessee, they’ll likely finish the regular season 12–0.
If Tennessee loses to Alabama, they’ll still make the SEC Championship game representing the East. Once there, it’s almost guaranteed they’ll face either Alabama (again) or LSU. If Tennessee comes into the SEC Championship game with 12 wins, they could theoretically lose and still secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. While there’s no precedent for this — in fact, last year, Iowa was in this exact situation and was left out of the playoff after losing to Michigan State — Tennessee will have a much harder schedule than the one Iowa had featuring games against Iowa State, Purdue, North Texas, Maryland, and Illinois.
Playing Alabama at home represents a critical juncture in Butch Jones’ story at Tennessee. His tenure began by securing the 24th-ranked recruiting class in 2013, followed by the seventh-ranked class in 2014, and then the fourth-ranked class in 2015. The amassing of the top high school talent in the nation grew into hope for the future, which in turn led to a crushing letdown of a season in 2015. Now, in 2016, the Alabama game represents not just the fate of Tennessee’s playoff hopes, but also the legacy of Butch Jones. The outcome of the game on November 15th will determine if Jones reaches the pinnacle of college football, defeating Nick Saban and making the College Football Playoff, or if he was just a great salesman and recruiter who couldn’t get it done when it really mattered.
Texas A&M: Ole Miss— November 12th
There’s a consistent trend when it comes to Kevin Sumlin, and it’s an inability to consistently compete in conference play and finish out a season strong. Since 2013, Texas A&M is 8–10 (5–10) in the second half of the season with a win over only one ranked team — No. 3 Auburn in 2014, who fell to No. 19 by the end of the regular season.
Kevin Sumlin has struggled in conference play during his time at Texas A&M, evidenced by his 17–15 record. If Kevin Sumlin wants to coach another year in College Station, he’ll have to show he can finish with a winning record in conference play, something he hasn’t done since 2012. The problem with that is that Texas A&M will play Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and LSU the second half of the season. Ole Miss provides an opportunity to get a late season win against a quality opponent. Texas A&M should beat Mississippi State, and if they beat Ole Miss, their second half record could end up being 4–2 (2–2).
Sumlin’s tenure at Texas A&M mirrors that of Gus Malzahn at Auburn, another coach who might be looking for a new job in January. Both had a stellar first year as head coach, but since then they’ve been somewhat of a disappointment. Sumlin has locked down two top-10 recruiting classes in his four years as an Aggie, but the best he’s got to show for it is a win in the Cotton Bowl, with kids recruited by the previous regime.
Texas A&M could win eight regular season games in 2016, but to keep his job, Sumlin will need to prove he can prevent a late season collapse. The game against Ole Miss on November 12th will be at home and perhaps the last winnable game for Sumlin to show he deserves to stay in College Station.
Vanderbilt: Florida — October 1st
In just two years in Nashville, Derek Mason seems to have constructed a sleeping giant in Vanderbilt. He’s built a defense that jumped from 85th in defensive efficiency in 2014 to 13th in 2015 and shown he can make Vanderbilt competitive against SEC teams.
The Commodores will again rely on an outstanding defense in 2016, and Mason will have linebacker Zach Cunningham leading the defense, who finished last season as the nation’s 16th-best linebacker, according to Pro Football Focus. Also returning are defensive back Torren McGaster, who had 10 pass deflections last season, safety Oren Burks, whose three interceptions lead the team, and defensive lineman Adam Butler, who had seven tackles for loss. There’s plenty of solid, if unspectacular, players returning too, like Tre Herndon, Arnold Tarpley, Taurean Ferguson, and Landon Stokes. With so many players who are not only familiar with but also have had success in Mason’s system, Vanderbilt should finish inside as a top-10 defense.
On offense, Vanderbilt returns Ralph Webb, a do-it-all running back who accounted for 1340 yards from scrimmage last season, which included 24 receptions, third-most on the team. Webb will be a stabilizing presence on offense as sophomore Kyle Shurmur — who started five of the last six games last year with mixed results — has been tabbed as the starting quarterback. Shurmur didn’t play last year against Florida, but he can’t be any worse than Johnny McCrary, who went 3-for-14 for 30 yards in a 9–7 loss in Gainesville.
Florida played a lot of close games against bad teams last year, a fact camouflaged by their 10–2 record in the regular season. Not counting their 61–13 season-opening win against New Mexico State (one of the ten worst teams in college football), the Gators average margin of victory against teams that finished 6–6 or worse was only 6.85 points. Florida lost a lot of depth and playmakers on defense to the NFL, have a problem of just finding guys who can play offense, and really weren’t all that great last year.
Florida will travel to Vanderbilt a week after playing Tennessee on the road, a game in which they could lose by three-plus touchdowns. Vanderbilt will be the better team, play them at home, and sense blood in the water. Historically, Vanderbilt has been blown out by Florida — the margin of victory in 49 games is almost two touchdowns — and beating the Gators will help regain some of the respect the program earned when James Franklin lead the Commodores to back-to-back nine-win seasons prior to Mason’s arrival.
