Finding an edge in the 2020 Daytona 500
The wait is nearly over!
The Daytona 500 is one sleep away and I guarantee you this; motorsports fans can’t wait. Nor can the handicappers.
Picking a winner in a NASCAR race is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. That said, if ya find it, ya best bet all the buddies (and probably the in-laws, too) will know about it. After all, isn’t that the fun in betting? Getting to say, “I toad a so,” when your long shot zooms by the checkered flag.
So without further ado, let’s find ourselves an edge in the “Great American Race”!
Something for the casuals
Okay, you want to bet on the Daytona 500, but you don’t know too much about the sport. No biggy, there are ways in which you can bet that give you solid odds of winning without having to know too much about the sport itself.
In this case, your best bet is to bet on the car manufacturer that will win. There are three car manufactures that rule NASCAR and those are Ford, Chevy, and Toyota.
DraftKings Sportsbook favours either Ford or Chevy to win the race. The oddsmakers think Toyota is less likely. Here are the odds as of Feb, 15:
- Ford (+155)
- Chevy (+155)
- Toyota (+225)
My thoughts: If you go over the last 10 runnings of Daytona 500, you will see this dynamic play out:
A Ford car has won the Daytona 500 four times in the last 10 years; Trevor Bayne of Wood Brothers Racing in 2011, Matt Kenseth of Roush Fenway Racing in 2012, Joey Logano of Team Penske in 2015, and Kurt Busch of Stewart-Haas Racing in 2017.
A Chevy car has also won four times in the last 10 years; Jamie McMurray of Earnhardt Ganassi Racing in 2010, Jimmie Johnson of Hendrick Motorsports in 2013, Dale Earnhardt Jr. of Hendrick Motorsports in 2014, and Austin Dillon of Richard Childress Racing in 2018.
That means a Toyota car has only won the “Great American Race” two times in the last decade. Toyota’s winners being Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing in 2016 and Denny Hamlin again last year in 2019.
What does that all mean?
For starters, if Denny Hamlin doesn’t make it to the winner’s circle, Toyota ain’t winning this race.
Secondly, it’s a showdown between Chevy and Ford.
If you study the trends, I have read and roughly calculated, based on the current field for the 500, that a Ford car has a 44 per cent chance of winning the race versus 35 per cent chance a Chevy car has of winning the race and the 21 per cent chance one of Toyota’s cars has of claiming glory.
That means, if you play the numbers, your best bet is to cash in on a Ford car winning the race.
What am I doing? I’m going to play this a little bit differently and throw my money on a Chevy car winning the race. I like a certain driver’s chance of winning the 500 (which I will explain why down below) and he just so happens to drive a Chevy.
So I guess the question y’all have now is who do you have winning this thing bash near the beach?
First, let’s take a look at who has the best odds to win the Daytona 500 as per OddsShark:
Driver — Odds
Kyle Busch +800
Denny Hamlin +900
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1100
Martin Truex Jr. +1200
Chase Elliott +1400
Kevin Harvick +1400
Ryan Blaney +1600
Kurt Busch +1800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +1800
Alex Bowman +2000
Matt DiBenedetto +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2200
William Byron +2200
Clint Bowyer +2500
Erik Jones +2500
Aric Almirola +2800
Kyle Larson +3300
Ryan Newman +3300
Austin Dillon +4000
Chris Buescher +4000
Christopher Bell +5000
Cole Custer +5000
Ross Chastain +5000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +6600
David Ragan +6600
Ty Dillon +6600
Tyler Reddick +6600
Michael McDowell +8000
Ryan Preece +8000
BJ McLeod +10000
Brendan Gaughan +10000
Brennan Poole +10000
Corey LaJoie +10000
Joey Gase +10000
John Hunter Nemechek +10000
Justin Haley +10000
Quin Houff +10000
Reed Sorenson +10000
Timmy Hill +10000
The oddsmakers are giving Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano the edge in the betting. It makes a lot of sense. The drivers are all very capable of winning the race. Hamlin has won the race twice. Logano won the 500 back in 2015. Kyle Busch’s cars have looked solid throughout the week. They all had solid prep races.
If you’re the type of person to back a driver, horse, player, or team because you trust them the most, these drivers are all worthy of your money, especially Denny Hamlin with his recent successes in the Daytona 500.
Obviously, if you’re looking for a long shot, the favourites aren’t the drivers you’ll be playing. You’re going to want to take a chance on a driver who has some pedigree, but for whatever reason, isn’t loved by the oddsmakers.
That brings me to my pick to win the big race.
Who do I got edging their name into the history books (in this case) once again? Double J. #48 — Jimmie Johnson.
Listen, Jimmie Johnson is one of the GOATS when it comes to NASCAR. He’s a seven-time NASCAR Cup Series Champion. He’s won the Daytona 500 twice. His cars have looked great in the leadup to the Daytona 500. Most importantly, this is his last Daytona 500 before calling it quits at the end of the 2020 season.
If you think for one second that Johnson won’t be gunning for the win, you might want to think again. He knows what it takes to get the job done and he has the car and the team to make things happen. In what will be Johnson’s last ride in the 500, it’s hard to not see him finding his way to victory lane or at least, die trying.
Of course, when cars are racing at high speeds on a superspeedway, plenty of things can go wrong. That said, with Johnson’s odds at +2200 or 22–1, you can’t really complain about this bet.
To stay in touch with Christian, be sure to follow him on Twitter @HolmesyWrites
