2020 Update: Imagining Future Homeland Security Threats
While the events of 2020 have shocked the general public, homeland security experts ‘imagined’ these threats including a global pandemic, mass civil unrest, cyberattacks, active shooters, and increasing severity of natural disasters from global climate change as part of the Homeland Security Advanced Thinking Program (HSx) almost 4 years ago.
As the world continues to change, I have updated this growing list with both new threats that we will likely face, and unknown perils that will challenge our ability to secure the nation.
The 9/11 Commission Report highlighted the most significant shortfall contributing to the attacks as a “failure of imagination” due to leaders not understanding and perceiving the gravity of the threat. Looking forward to preventing the next 9/11 from occurring, homeland security officials need to step outside of planning for attacks, emergencies, and disasters that are known and likely to think about those that are unknown and unlikely. Imagination occurs in the space beyond our current experiences.
A group of researchers at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security worked collectively to populate the grid that is pictured above. Each sticky note represents a threat. We invite input and an on-going conversation from readers on both the ideas from the HSx cohort 4 years ago, and the new threats that I have added in 2020.
Known and Likely
The threats in this quadrant represent things that have occurred and will occur again. These threats are scoped at the national level and within individual communities.
- Weaponized Social Media (e.g., Mass Disinformation Campaigns, Mainstream Acceptance of Conspiracy Theories)
- Breakdown of Commercial Supply Chains (e.g., toilet paper, soap/sanitizer, meat processing, canned food)
- Hording of Food and Essential Supplies Leading to Shortages for Portions of the Population
- Loss of American Identity, Nationalism, and Patriotism (e.g., citizens will no longer have a unified desire to do what is best for the entire nation)
- Refusal of Citizens to Follow Public Health Guidance and Take Vaccinations to Prevent the Spread of Diseases
- Systemic Racism Disenfranchises Large Populations of US Citizens
- Mainstream White Supremacy Movement
- Armed Militias Carrying Out Plots Against Government Institutions and Elected Officials
- Concurrent Hurricanes and Severe Flooding
- Major Earthquakes and Tsunamis
- National Debt
- Climate Change
- Radicalization of US Citizens and Lone Wolf Terrorist Attacks
- Active Shooters
- Illegal Immigration
- Cyber Attacks (e.g., small and targeted impact, denial of service, data theft)
- Fire and Hazmat Emergencies
- Spread of Contagious Disease (e.g., Ebola, H1N1, common cold, flu)
- Antibacterial Drug Resistance
- Obesity
- Civil Unrest and Riots
- Pollution of Water Supplies
- Failure of Lifeline Infrastructure Systems (e.g., blackouts, Puerto Rico’s power grid, dams overtopping, bridge collapses)
Known and Unlikely
This quadrant represents the threats that are established and well understood but are unlikely to happen.
- Compromised Election (e.g., hacking voting systems, widespread voter fraud, destruction of ballots before counting)
- Elected Official Refuses to Leave Office
- Military Coup
- Defunding of Homeland Security, Defense, and Emergency Services Departments
- Second American Civil War
- Catastrophic Economic Crash (e.g., Great Depression)
- Widespread Infrastructure System Failure (e.g., Nation-wide Blackout)
- Loss of Food Supply
- Asteroid Strike
- Electromagnetic Pulse Attack
- Mass Casualties from Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) Attack
- Assassination of Senior Government Official
- Nuclear Annihilation from another Nation-State
- Contested Election Results Leading to Breakdown of Democratic Process
- Nuclear Meltdown of Commercial Facility
- Extinction of Critical Plant, Animal, or Inspect Population (e.g., bees)
- Religious Warfare
- Mass Infertility
- GPS or Satellite-Based System Failure
Unknown and Likely
The threats within this quadrant are not well known, acknowledged, or understood but are likely to occur.
- Simultaneous Pandemics (e.g., COVID-19 and COVID-21 spreading concurrently)
- Compromise of the “Cyber Border” Allowing Widespread Foreign Access into Public and Private Internet-based Systems
- Global Use of Cyber Currency Replacing U.S. Monetary System
- Collapse of Health Care System
- Widespread Breach of Social Contracts
- Autonomous Vehicles
- Full Depletion of Petroleum, Natural Gas, Coal, and Other Fossil Fuels
- Members of Criminal Group Elected to Public Office by Legitimate Elections
- Major Cyber Attack (e.g., total outage of SCADA systems)
- Privately Owned Major Military
- Global Pandemic
- Solar Flare
- Global Zoological Disease Outbreak
- Sub-Climate Shift for Geographic Regions (e.g., sub-tropical to tropical, ice cap to sub-arctic)
- Out of Control Artificial Intelligence
- Major Terrorist Attack by New Method
- World War III
Unknown and Unlikely
This quadrant is defined by imagination because the threats have not happened and may never happen while still existing in the realm of remote possibility.
- Total Loss of the Internet
- Global Natural Disaster
- End of Weather
- Single Global Currency
- Discovery of New Hyper-Valuable Material Shifting Global Wealth
- Collapse of U.S. Government
- Defeat of U.S. Military by Nation-State
- New U.S. Constitution
- Unexplained Mass Extinctions
- Development of Neutron Bomb
- New Human Predator
- Teleporter Invented
- Invention of Warp Drive
- Discovery of Hyper-Intelligent Animal
- Breach of Earth’s Core
- Single Earth Nation
- Aliens
Looking Into the Future
In a rapidly accelerating world defined by complexity, dependency, scarcity, and interconnectedness, the homeland security community needs to think beyond the bounds of what appears possible to imagine the next threat to our nation.
David Riedman is an expert in critical infrastructure protection, disaster preparedness, and emergency management. He is a co-founder of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Advanced Thinking and Experimentation (HSx) Program at the Naval Postgraduate School.
