After ISIS, Who Will be Next?
With ISIS on the forefront, it is hard to consider from where the next terrorist fight is going to come. To add insult to that threat, has the fight against ISIS benefited any other terrorist group? That is exactly what some experts believe is occurring in Syria. The al Qaeda Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, has exploited the air strikes again ISIS to gain strength. Some U.S. national security and counterterrorism professionals have indicated that we are missing the signals of another emergence of al Qaeda and ISIS become weaker.
A recent CNN article by Ryan Browne discussed the emergence of another Syrian terrorist group to watch out for. According to a report issued last week by the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute, the al Qaeda Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, is a bigger long-term threat than ISIS is to the United States. One of the report authors, Kim Kagan, described the situation as, “While ISIS is flashier … both represent an existential threat, both wish to attack the homeland, both seek the mobilization of Muslim communities against the West.”
Al-Nusra, formed in late 2011, is mostly comprised of battle proven Syrians who fought in Iraq against U.S forces. With an estimated fighting force of 35,000 fighters from 100 different counties, al-Nusra is only second to ISIS in recruiting foreign fighters to join their cause. They control areas within northwestern Syria, allowing them local coercion abilities. According to Nick Heras of the Center for a New American Security, al-Nusra has been one of the most successful in fighting the Syrian regime and President Bashar al-Assad.
The popular and influential former General and CIA director, David Petraeus, has even discussed working with the more moderate within al Nusra in order to fight ISIS. That was a tactic he utilized in Iraq in 2007 as he recruited the Sunni militias to break connections with al Qaeda and fight for the U.S. military. His tactic is similar to the Sanskrit proverb of the “enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Even though Petraeus’ tactic has had success, there would be very little support to back al Qaeda for the fight against ISIS. It is also the constant change in alliances and patronages that alienates the different Islamic groups.
The report from the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute states that al-Nusra is “much more dangerous to the U.S. than the ISIS model in the long run.” According to Fred Kagan and Kim Kagan who authored the report, both groups are “existential” threats. Kim Kagan described al-Nusra as “… quietly intertwining itself with the Syrian population and Syrian opposition … They are waiting in the wings to pick up the mantle of global jihad once ISIS falls.” Kagan depicted the true intentions of al-Nusra as possibly being masked behind the fight against ISIS, as they wait to attack the west. She explained that al-Nusra “… has decided not to overtly host attack cells because the al Qaeda leadership’s priority is preserving success in Syria and avoiding being targeted by the U.S.”
If we follow the advice of former General and CIA director, David Petraeus, supporting the more moderates within al Nusra in order to fight ISIS, what will happen once ISIS has been defeated? How will we handle the alliance that was formed within al Nusra because they were aligned with al Qaeda? To put this question into perspective, as we look back at the alliances with Russia and China during WWII, how did things change after the defeat of Germany and Japan? Should we be watching the next emerging Islamic threat even though this group may be helping us win the war against ISIS?
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