Be Like Water: A Sensemaking Mind Map for Wicked Problems
Permacrisis.
That’s the 2023 Collins Dictionary Word of the Year. “Permacrisis” means “an extended period of instability and insecurity, especially one resulting from a series of catastrophic events.” These unstable and uncertain periods are not new concepts for sensemakers. Disruption is accelerating at a dizzying pace. It is human nature to try and couch disruption in a binary, good or bad status. It is neither; it just is. Our current mental models are insufficient for permacrisis. The mental model for assuming the world is linear, predictable, and controllable is a fundamental mismatch to a world in a steady state of instability and insecurity; permacrisis. To say we live in uncertain times would be an understatement.
As a global community, we are moving to a complex, networked, and interconnected community from the industrial age, where linear and reductionist thinking has thrived. As the industrial age system of organization ends its life cycle, liminal spaces open. Liminal is from the Latin word ‘limen’, which means threshold. A liminal space is the time between ‘what was’ and ‘next.’ It is a place of transition, a time of waiting and not knowing the future. This transition is driving a fundamental transformation in our theory and methods of sensemaking leadership, one that goes beyond our traditional paradigm designed for relatively static hierarchical organizations within relatively stable environments to more complex networked organizations with a need to operate in a so-called VUCA world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity related to rapid change.
The most recent report of the World Economic Forum contains the essential skills needed for the future: analytical thinking and innovation, complex problem-solving, critical thinking and analysis, creativity, originality and initiative, leadership and social influence, technology use and design, resilience, agility and stress tolerance, reasoning, problem-solving, and imagination. These skills fit into systems thinking, complexity science, and sensemaking. Complexity lies at the heart of most policy issues today; their components are interrelated in multiple, hard-to-define ways. Traditional analytical tools and problem-solving methods no longer work in the context of complexity and uncertainty. Similarly, conventional approaches to public sector reform have yet to deliver the expected results, reflecting poor design and weak stakeholder participation. The application of systems thinking, complexity science and sensemaking are paramount, not only in the 21st but the 22nd century.
Complex systems, sensemaking, and systems thinking are central themes in studying the world around us and how we interact with it. These concepts help us understand and navigate the complex and often interconnected systems that shape our lives. This essay uses the English Mind Map Framework and its five domains: geopolitical, geophysical, geopsychosocial, geoeconomic, and geotechnological, to help identify complex enabling conditions of wicked problems. The mind map model incorporates the concept of “be like water,” metaphorically described by Bruce Lee, and how it relates to complex systems, sensemaking, and systems thinking. The English Mind Map Framework is a tool to start the holistic thinking process to discover synergies and interconnections of enabling conditions and agents between the five domains, which can help systems map networks.
Be Like Water
“Be like water, my friend” is a term that Bruce Lee used to mean to be flexible and agile in both your mind and body. In sensemaking, “Be like water” means exploring the liminal space in complex issues. It’s about not being rigid and stubborn about your beliefs and practices but instead being open-minded and able to adapt and evolve given the current circumstance or level of complexity or uncertainty. Bruce Lee is a hero to many because he introduced the ancient Chinese martial arts of kung fu to America. Lee was relentless in his commitment and passion for physical and mental strength. He explained, “[e]mpty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle, and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot, and it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow, or it can crash. Be water, my friend.” The flexible nature of thinking, mindfulness, and mental flexibility works well in ecosystems of wicked problems.
Wicked Problems
Wicked problems are highly complex issues. A wicked problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. It’s an idea or problem that cannot be fixed, where there is no single solution to the problem, and “wicked” denotes resistance to resolution, rather than evil. Examples include global cybersecurity, inequality, global governance, issues associated with the financialization of our economies, international crime, terrorism, climate change and environmental degradation. Wicked problems define the emergent and complex systems we live in today.
Consequently, wicked problems cannot be isolated and tackled through the traditional linear and reductionist approach. The patterns that characterize them form through self-organization within infinite individual interactions. Adopting an interdisciplinary and holistic thinking approach is necessary to effectively tackle wicked problems, looking for synergies, and enabling conditions and opportunities to be creative and innovative.
Complexity Science, Systems Thinking, and Sensemaking
Organizations struggle in uncertain conditions because the complexity of life and work has risen to a level where it is hard to make sense of things. Complexity science, sensemaking, and systems thinking are essential skills for navigating conditions of uncertainty and the emergent wicked problems created from it.
Complexity science focuses on complex systems, which have many interconnected parts that can exhibit emergent behavior. Most problems are connected to other problems of considerable ambiguity and uncertainty. Emergence is one of the central concepts within complex systems and complexity science. It describes a universal process whereby novel features and properties emerge when parts of a system interact and self-organize to create new patterns of organization. Emergence is a highly abstract concept and manifests everywhere. Some examples include the universe’s evolution to the formation of traffic jams, from the development of social movements to the flocking of birds, from the cooperation of trillions of cells giving rise to the human body to the formation of hurricanes and financial crises. The key issue is that you can’t understand the whole system by looking at its individual parts.”
Sensemaking is the process of making sense of complex and ambiguous situations. In the context of wicked problems, sensemaking is essential for understanding enabling conditions and root causes of wicked problems and identifying possible interventions. David Snowden, one of the five schools of sensemaking thinkers, defines sensemaking as “how we make sense of the world so we can act in it.”
Systems thinking considers the relationships between parts of a system and how they influence each other. It helps us understand how a change in one part of a system can have cascading effects on the rest. In the context of wicked problems, systems thinking is essential for identifying leverage points and designing interventions with the most significant impact. Leverage points are places within a complex system where a slight shift in one thing can produce significant changes in everything.
These skills enable us to approach wicked problems holistically, strategically, collaboratively, and synergistically.
Simple Rules and Agents of Complex Systems & Wicked Problems
The secret sauce for understanding complexity leading to wicked problems is intervening at the simple rules and agents’ level before an event. Simple rules and agents, called “enabling conditions,” drive wicked problems. Simple rules are the underlying principles, mechanisms, or mental models that shape the behavior of a system, while agents are the individuals or entities that act within the system. We can better identify potential solutions and interventions by understanding the simple rules and agents of complex adaptive systems (CAS), a dynamic of systems thinking and complexity science. Tim Sullivan states “A complex adaptive system has three characteristics. The first is that the system consists of many heterogeneous agents, and each of those agents makes decisions about how to behave. The most important dimension here is that those decisions will evolve. The second characteristic is that the agents interact with one another. That interaction leads to the third characteristic, emergence. In a real way, the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts.” One inhibiting factor in recognizing simple rules and agents of wicked problems is our mental models. Mental models are how we understand the world, our social construction of reality. Social constructionism holds that we understand the world through our interactions with others and their social influence on reality. In keeping with the English Mind Map Framework, the social construction of reality incorporates all five domains for our lives. They shape what we think and how we understand and shape the connections and opportunities we see. Mental models are how we simplify complexity, why we consider some things more relevant than others, and how we reason. A mental model is simply a representation of how something works. We cannot keep all the details of the world in our brains, so we use models to simplify the complex into understandable and organized chunks.
English Mind Map Framework for Sensemaking Mapping of Wicked Problems
The English Mind Map Framework works as a tool for sensemaking and systems thinking needed for identifying the simple rules and agents of wicked problems. Instability in any of the domains evolves, sometimes subtly, to emerge as a wicked problem. It has five geo-domains. “Geo” in the framework means “global in nature.” The five domains are: geoeconomic, geopolitical, geopsychosocial, geophysical, and geotechnological.
· The geopolitical domain explores the connection between the global aspects of politics and international political relations. The geo-political domain represents all the activities of governance and the pursuit of power by individuals, groups, or organizations.
· The geoeconomics domain explores the connection between global aspects of economies of all types, monetary resources, and various currency systems, including circular economies.
· The geotechnological domain explores the connection between emergent technology, including platforms, and the application of diverse technological systems, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
· The geophysical domain explores the connection of the earth’s physical and geographical properties and processes acting upon the land, sky, and sea.
· The geopsychosocial domain explores the connection between human factors, including social psychology, group dynamics, social identity, motivated reasoning, judgment under conditions of uncertainty, cognitive aspects of decision-making behavior, and cultural dynamics, including social enabling and inhibiting factors, such as biases and heuristics.
Case Example: The English Mind Map Framework applied to COVID-19
In late December 2019, people in Wuhan, China, began to get sick with an unknown pneumonia, marking the beginning of a new infectious disease, later identified as a new type of coronavirus named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. To date, the virus has killed 6,693,718 people worldwide. The English Mind Map Framework’s five domains are applied to Covid-19, a wicked problem. Thinking linearly in non-linear situations such as COVID-19 hinders insight, especially where non-linear cascading causality involves feedback loops and dynamic behaviors.
Covid 19: Geophysical: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the earth’s physical environment. For example, lockdowns and travel restrictions have led to a decrease in air pollution and carbon emissions. In contrast, the demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) has increased plastic and biohazardous waste. Additionally, the pandemic has disrupted the global supply chain, leading to food shortages and other essential goods. In the context of the theory of constraints, geophysical factors have led to restrictions on physical resources such as raw materials, equipment, or facilities necessary to produce goods or provide services associated with daily needs. From a One Health perspective, it is essential to note that unhealthy interactions between the environment, animals and people could be the root cause (enabling condition) of COVID-19. The geophysical aspects of climate change on the earth and its inhabitants have profoundly impacted our daily lives. In trying to make sense of the interconnections of COVID-19, misinformation has clouded the overall understanding of the simple rules and agents necessary to control the virus.
COVID-19 Geopolitical: The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant political implications globally, as governments responded to the COVID-19 crisis with measures such as lockdowns, travel restrictions, and emergency economic relief packages. The pandemic has also increased tensions between countries and political groups, as all levels of government have been criticized for handling the crisis. Factors such as regulations, laws, or policies act as constraints on the performance of a system. For example, certain types of businesses were subject to specific rules or requirements that limited their ability to operate at total capacity. The visible symptoms or consequences of the pandemic in the political domain include changes to laws and policies and tensions between different countries and political groups. However, underlying causes or contributing factors influenced special interest groups, slow hierarchical systems of government, a reductionist mental model of thinking, and a lack of awareness of synergistic forces related to pandemics.
COVID-19 Geopsychosocial: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted individuals’ and communities’ mental health and social well-being worldwide. The social isolation and confinement measures put in place to slow the spread of the virus have led to feelings of loneliness and anxiety for many people. The economic impacts of the pandemic have also contributed to stress and financial insecurity for many individuals and families. Healthcare professionals are experiencing excessive burnout and high levels of stress. Psychosocial factors, such as the attitudes, biases, heuristics and behaviors of individuals within a system, have acted as constraints to mitigating the virus. As an example, misinformation led to antivaccination efforts. Cultural values and beliefs about COVID-19 influenced how it was understood and addressed. Anti-intellectualism, the lack of sensemaking capacity and rational thought hindered response efforts. Behavioral practices such as social distancing, vaccinations, wearing face masks, and handwashing are all simple rules that could have significantly inhibited the transfer of COVID.
COVID-19 Geotechnological: The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the use of technology in many aspects of life, as people relied on virtual communication and online tools to work, learn and socialize while physical distancing measures were in place. The pandemic has also increased the use of telemedicine, as people have turned to online platforms to access healthcare services. Social media or other online platforms spread misinformation and influenced public opinion on vaccinations and social gatherings, spreading the virus.
COVID-19 Geoeconomic: The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant economic impacts globally. Lockdowns and other measures to slow the virus’s spread have disrupted supply chains and increased demand for limited supplies. Many businesses have been forced to close or significantly reduce their operations, leading to job losses and economic instability. The pandemic has also increased government spending to support individuals and businesses affected by the crisis.
Conclusion
The English Mind Map Framework is a sensemaking tool to think critically through complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the enabling conditions of wicked problems that emerge from them. It helps sensemakers identify connections and synergies among enabling conditions (simple rules) and agents within systems. The future isn’t going to get less complicated or less interconnected. New tools and thinking are required for insightful systems leadership of the wicked problems that will continue to emerge in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) ecosystems. To “be like water” will mean wading into the VUCA world with enough mental agility and sensemaking tools to navigate the liminal spaces.
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The terms “simple rules and agents and enabling conditions are meant to be interchangeable.
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About Angi
Angi English is currently an SME III for the Executive Education Team at the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security and an Adjunct Professor for Idaho State University in Homeland Security and Emergency Management. She is the former Chief of Staff at the New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management and an HSx Founding Scholar for Innovation at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Center for Homeland Defense and Security (HSx 1701). She has a Master’s in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (MS 1303/1304)and a Master’s in Educational Psychology from Baylor University. She’s also a graduate of the Executive Leader’s Program at the Naval Postgraduate School (ELP 1201). She is a Certified Part 107 Unmanned Aerial Systems pilot, an Advisory Member of the DRONEREPONDERS, and a finalist for Women to Watch Global UAS Awards, 2021. She lives in Corrales, New Mexico.
