Biggest ISIS Attack in 3 Years: Day One Challenge to President Biden
On the first day of Joe Biden’s presidency, simultaneous suicide bombings killed at least 32 people and injured 110 others in Iraq. ISIS claimed responsibility despite statements by the prior president that ISIS had been 100% defeated. The scale, coordination, and timing of the bombing demonstrates that ISIS is a cohesive terrorist organization with the resources and capabilities to carry out significant strikes against US interests. ISIS garnered international attention in 2014 when they quickly captured territory across Iraq and Syria. In the past year, they have quietly re-established their presence in Northern Africa.
The attack in Iraq presents an immediate crisis for President Biden. This is a calculated effort by ISIS to test their boundaries with the new president. Unfortunately, a military response is immediately complicated by:
- Department of Defense and National Guard are aiding states with COVID vaccinations and preventing additional domestic terrorist attacks.
- US troops were withdrawn from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria by the last president. Reversing this decision to bring home troops will be unpopular with the general public.
- US Military’s international footprint has been shifted by the previous administration making the rapid deployment of a large fighting force to the Middle East more challenging.
- US relationships with NATO allies have degraded over the last four years as the prior president claimed allies were not paying their fair share and threatened to withdraw from NATO.
- US has lost trust with Iraqi leaders following the killing of Iranian Commander Suleimani at Baghdad International Airport without their consultation or permission.
- Foreign allies may be less likely to back other US-led military operations against ISIS after the US abruptly left the Iran Nuclear Deal and withdrew from Iraq and Syria without a plan for the future.
- There does not appear to be a US strategy for forming a global coalition to defeat ISIS (State Department website for it hasn’t been updated in the last four years)
If the US does not respond, ISIS will be emboldened as a new power vacuum develops in Iraq. Just as ISIS quickly took over half of Iraq and Syria in 2014-2015, black flags could be flying across the region within a matter of weeks.
Conversely, if the US sends a new wave of soldiers to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Northern Africa to battle the resurgence of ISIS, we are faced with another prolonged conflict against an ideology, not a nation-state. Social Identity Theory provides a framework for understanding the motivations and intentions of terrorist groups. I’m republishing my analysis from 5 years ago with the hope that President Biden will implement a multi-year strategy for combating terrorism and implement a unified strategy to eliminate ISIS.
Profile & Analysis based on Social Identity Theory (2016)
Group Name: The Islamic State (IS), also referred to as “The State”, “Islamic State of Iraq and Levant”, “Islamic State of Iraq and Sham”, or “ISIS”
Principal ideology: Salifi Jihadist
Area of Operation: Iraq and Syria (with global unaffiliated supporters)
Leadership: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (killed 2019)
Affiliated groups: 43 affiliate or supporter groups[1]
Principal enemy: Iraqi and Syrian Governments, U.S. Led Military Coalition
Tactics: Insurgent, Terrorism, Creation of Pseudo Nation-State
Summary
The Islamic State (IS) led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (killed 2019) is the establishment of the new Islamic Caliphate by the group formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria which was a paramilitary group of Sunni Islamists.[2] ISIS initially overthrew the Iraqi government in major northern cities and took weapons, military vehicles, and money within those cities.[3] IS currently controls large portions of northern Iraq and the Syria north of the Euphrates River.[4] While the speed that The State gained territory seemed shocking, religious group affiliations offers an explanation. IS’s supporters were initially a Sunni in-group in Iraq who felt that the former Shia Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki was not a legitimate leader due to his out-group membership and alignment with the United States. Iraq’s current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who is a member of the Shia Islamic Dawa Party[5], continues to perpetuate the out-group dynamic of Iraq’s political leaders in relations to IS’s in-group supporters.
Many Sunnis are willing to offer support to a militant faction representing their in-group over the perceived illegitimate authority of an out-group Shia leader. The territory declared to be The Islamic State has a Sunni majority population which explains the lack of opposition. Members of IS view themselves as “Mujahib” or Jihadist freedom fighters liberating oppressed Sunnis. Regardless, IS is still a terrorist group based on their lack of interest in cooperation or compromise, their violence against non-military targets, conducting mass executions,[6] and their existential goal of waging global Jihad.[7]
While the conflict is regional, IS poses a threat to the United States. As the Paris attack[8] and more than 70 other IS inspired or affiliated global attacks[9] have shown, “foreign fighter mobilizations empower transnational terrorist groups because volunteering for war is the principal stepping-stone for individual involvement in more extreme forms of militancy”.[10] IS also controls oil fields, has significant funding,[11] and is motivated by a desire to wage global Jihad.[12]
The current relationship between IS and al-Qaeda (AQ) remains unclear. To initially mobilize Jihadist supporters, the spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani had gloried the 9/11 attacks on America and the legacy of Osama Bin Laden in his statements.[13] The formative ISIS appeared to be seeking legitimization by AQ but the messages from al-Adnani shifted from praising AQ to challenging them.[14] Al-Adnani publically accused AQ of “running after the bandwagon of the majority and softens in their stance at the expense of religion”[15] which could either be a challenge to AQ’s leadership to align with The State or an attempt to recruit away AQ’s remaining followers.
The analysis will focuses on the relationship between IS and AQ, suggests possible trajectories for the group, and predicts their goals in the short- and long-term through the analytical lens of the Social Identity Theory.
Patron/Client Relationship
During IS’s rise to power, Al-Adnani’s messages in April 2014 declared that AQ was no longer embracing their patron role as the leaders of Salafi jihadists by saying “AQ today is no longer the AQ of Jihad”[16] and “AQ has deviated, it has altered and changed”.[17] Even while challenging AQ, Al-Adnani still assumed the client role by asking AQ to “trust in Allah and waste not the legacy of Usamah, for [ISIS] has not called you except to legitimate matters”.[18] While al-Adnani’s statements challenged AQ’s leadership, the request for legitimization showed that ISIS viewed AQ as the patron with the authority to approve ISIS’s actions. Al-Adnani’s May message reiterated AQ’s patron role and The State as their client. Al-Adnani explained “the relationship of The Islamic State with Al-Qa’idah is one of a soldier to its Amir”.[19]
While gaining power, ISIS also perceived themselves as the patron and Sunnis within their territory as clients. Al-Baghdadi explained the ISIS patron role by saying “we wish to do a favor to those who were weak (and oppressed) in the land”.[20] The establishment of IS has extended the patron role to include Sunnis around the world. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi preached “the ummah of Islam is watching your jihad with eyes of hope. For your brothers all over the world are waiting for your rescue”.[21]
Honor/Shame
Spokesman al-Adnani brings honor to the in-group members by elevating them above the out-group (non-Salafi jihadists) by saying “none understands the Quran like the Mujahib”.[22] ISIS appealed to its early followers by creating prestige for their in-group membership and “young people are really attracted to that.”[23] IS is actively recruiting supporters from Western countries. An English video promotes the positive in-group perception that affiliation with IS brings. “The cure for the depression is Jihad. You feel like you have no honor, oh my brothers come to jihad and feel the honor we are feeling. Feel the happiness that we are feeling.”[24]
Al-Adnani described feeling shame because ISIS did not “interfere in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia”[25] based on the instructions of AQ and because they didn’t take action, he feels “sadness fills [our] corners…due to the abundance of vulnerable people calling for [our] help”.[26] This statement is both of an expression of a need to regain honor and a challenge that AQ is no longer the legitimate leader.
Establishing IS has created the opportunity to bring honor to all Sunnis. Al-Baghdadi preached on July 5 that “a day will come when the Muslim will walk everywhere as a master, having honor, with his head raised high and his dignity preserved”.[27] For Sunnis who view The State as a legitimate government, they gain in-group honor because “you have a State and Khilafah, which will return your dignity, might, rights, and leadership”.[28]
Challenge/Response
IS believes that the regional governments of Egypt, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen are not challenging the United States and thus are corrupt so they should “declare openly them as apostates”.[29] The State challenges these governments’ legitimacy by saying “stand with your stance to Allah fixing with it that which you corrupted”.[30] Al-Adnani makes a direct call to action to “replace [corrupt governments] with clear and legitimate Jihad, renounce pacifism”.[31] Al-Baghdadi challenges the honor of the other regional leaders by calling them “Salafi claimants sitting back, abandoning Jihad because of their cowardice”.[32]
Limited Good
Territory, valuable resources (weapons, currency, and oil), and supporters from the Sunni population within Iraq and Syria are the limited good needed for creating a Caliphate. IS is operating under the narrative that “Allah favors us and opened for us the door to Jihad in Iraq”[33] because the religious context for their actions gives them the perceived justification to take and control territory. Al-Adnani tells the in-group that “we are progressing upon the path of Khilafah, nothing will harm us by the will of Allah”.[34]
The limited good can continue to be gained if their followers believe boundaries are irrelevant. Al-Baghdadi preaches that “Syria is not for the Syrians and Iraq is not for the Iraqis. The earth is Allah’s”.[35] Adhering to IS’s Salafi jihadist belief system offers religious justification for capturing territory. Al-Baghdadi also appeals to new supporters by claiming their “wajib ‘ayni” (obligation) requires them to join IS.[36]
Short-term Goals
IS has accomplished the initial goal of establishing a Caliphate. Their goal continues to be controlling territory so that “Shari’ah is established, religion is preserved”.[37] In order to maintain their territory, IS must continue to recruit new members by appealing to foreign fighters.[38] Their call to “join the ranks of the truthful”[39] and “come fight with your brothers”[40] in spoken English and Arabic with subtitled English. Al-Baghdadi describes IS as a place where “Arab and non-Arabs, white and black, eastern and western are all brothers”.[41] Having the English speaking Al-Adnani serve as the spokesman and the official Dabiq Magazine published in English[42] shows a dedication to recruiting Western supporters.[43] Losses resulting from U.S. led coalition air strikes continue to kill IS’s leaders and deplete resources which make gaining and maintaining territory increasingly difficult.[44]
IS continues to call for and inspire small-scale attacks that occur outside of their span of direct operational control and are conducted by individuals without formal training or affiliation. While these attacks are claimed by IS on social media, their only value is only as honor challenges that builds shared in-group pride rather than helping IS accomplish any military or strategic objectives.[45]
Long-term Goals
The long-term goal of IS is to overthrow any government that they view as corrupt, influenced by the West, or “polluting, corrupting, and perverting lands of Jihad”.[46] Due to Western intervention, IS has not gained control of other Sunni regions in the Arabian Peninsula despite The State’s goal of eventually conquering Israel.[47] Al-Baghdadi’s aspirations remain greater than just the region, he tells his supporters “you will conquer Rome and own the world if Allah wills”[48] but IS does not currently have resources capable of achieving these goals.
While IS has replaced AQ as the primary jihadist group in the Arabian Peninsula., the significant amount of territory and resources that IS controls will likely be its eventual downfall. Governance and military control of a region is expensive and IS is heavily dependent on cash from oil smuggling to finance foreign mercenary fighters.[49] As the financial burden on IS grows, Western and regional allies pressure is limiting oil smuggling.[50] In-group affiliations are rooted in positive benefits from membership compared to a less desirable out-group. IS will likely deteriorate to a point where IS loses the limited good and followers no longer perceive an advantage from their affiliation.
Sources
[1] http://intelcenter.com/maps/is-affiliates-map.html#gs.S3uy1Bo
[2] The fierce ambition of ISIL’s Baghdadi. Aljazeera News. June 15, 2014. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/fierce-ambition-isil-baghdadi-2014612142242188464.html
[3]Iraqi army increasingly bolstered by Shiite militias as ISIS advances. Washington Post. June 20, 2014.
[4] ‘Jihadistan’: Can Isis militants rule seized territory?. BBC World News. July 8, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28222872
[5] Haider al-Abadi: A new era for Iraq? BBC News. September 9, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28748366
[6] ISIS posts photos claiming mass killing of Iraqi soldiers. CBS Evening News. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgOBxFCAIaQ
[7] Graham Evans and Jeffrey Newnham. “The Penguin Dictionary of International Relations”. Penguin. 2003. Retrieved from http://www.himalayancrossings.com/pdf/course/resource/penguin_dictionary.pdf
[8] Paris attacks: day after atrocity — as it happened. The Guardian. November 16, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/14/paris-terror-attacks-attackers-dead-mass-killing-live-updates
[9] Recent Attacks Demonstrate Islamic State’s Ability to Both Inspire and Coordinate Terror. The New York Times. January 12, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/17/world/middleeast/map-isis-attacks-around-the-world.html
[10] Seth G. Jones, “The Extremist Threat to the US Homeland”. Testimony before the Committee of Homeland Security US House of Representatives. The RAND Corporation. January 15, 2014.
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT400/CT403/RAND_CT403.pdf
[11] ISIS just stole $425 million, Iraqi governor says, and became the ‘world’s richest terrorist group’. Washington Post. June 12, 2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/06/12/isis-just-stole-425-million-and-became-the-worlds-richest-terrorist-group/
[12] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[13] Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Official Statement 05/11/14. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHfsnRqGOkc
[14] Official Spokesman of Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Shaykh Adnani Lecture 04/17/14 on ‘Manhaj’ 6:51. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZx7utK2_8
[15] Ibid, 12:56.
[16] Ibid, 6:51.
[17] Ibid, 11:41.
[18] Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Official Statement 05/11/14. 19:26. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHfsnRqGOkc
[19] Apologies Amir of al Qaeda by Abu Muhammad al Adnaani”. April 2014. 14:00. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0KiGVPpkx0
[20] ISIS: The Establishment of the Islamic State (Part 4) — Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KyhYsdg-18
[21] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[22] Official Spokesman of Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Shaykh Adnani Lecture 04/17/14 on ‘Manhaj’. 2:11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZx7utK2_8
[23] With More Opportunities for Recruitment, the ISIS Threat Could Grow. The RAND Blog. June 18, 2014. http://www.rand.org/blog/2014/06/with-more-opportunities-for-recruitment-the-isis-threat.html
[24] [FULL] ‘ISIS Militants’ Breaking News — ‘No Life Without Jihad’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElhhPDfInYM
[25] Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Official Statement 05/11/14. 10:19. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHfsnRqGOkc
[26] Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Official Statement 05/11/14. 10:19. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHfsnRqGOkc
[27] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[28] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[29] Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Official Statement 05/11/14. 17:40. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHfsnRqGOkc
[30] Ibid, 17:40.
[31] Ibid. 18:16.
[32] ISIS: The Establishment of the Islamic State (Part 4) — Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KyhYsdg-18
[33] Official Spokesman of Islamic State of Iraq and Sham ISIS Shaykh Adnani Lecture 04/17/14 on ‘Manhaj’. 2:26. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZx7utK2_8
[34] Ibid. 16:09.
[35] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[36] Ibid
[37] ISIS: The Establishment of the Islamic State Part 8 — Abu Yahia Al Libi. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgnUoimtvxw
[38] Up to 30,000 foreign fighters have gone to Syria and Iraq since 2011. The Guardian. November 17, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/17/30000-foreign-fighters-syria--iraq-2014-terrorism-report
[39] ISIS: The Establishment of the Islamic State (Part 4) — Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KyhYsdg-18
[40] [FULL] ‘ISIS Militants’ Breaking News — ‘No Life Without Jihad’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElhhPDfInYM
[41] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[42] Dabiq Magazine Issue #1 — The Return of Khilafah. AlHayat Media. https://archive.org/download/dbq01_desktop_en/dbq01_desktop_en.pdf
[43] Sunni rebels declare new ‘Islamic caliphate’ http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/isil-declares-new-islamic-caliphate-201462917326669749.html
[44] U.S. bombs ‘millions’ in ISIS currency holdings. CNN. January 12, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/11/politics/us-bombs-millions-isis-currency-supply/
[45] Recent Attacks Demonstrate Islamic State’s Ability to Both Inspire and Coordinate Terror. The New York Times. January 12, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/17/world/middleeast/map-isis-attacks-around-the-world.html
[46] ISIS: The Establishment of the Islamic State Part 8 — Abu Yahia Al Libi. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgnUoimtvxw
[47] [FULL] ‘ISIS Militants’ Breaking News — ‘No Life Without Jihad’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElhhPDfInYM
[48] A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan from Amirul-Mu’mini Abu Baker Al-Husayni Al-Qurashi Al-Baghdadi
[49] Planet Money Episode 667: Auditing ISIS. NPR. December 4, 2015. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/12/04/458524627/episode-667-auditing-isis
[50] Cutting off ISIS’s Cash Flow. Brookings Institute. October 24, 2014. http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2014/10/24-lister-cutting-off-isis-jabhat-al-nusra-cash-flow
David Riedman is a criminologist, co-founder of the K-12 SSDB, graduate of the Naval Postgraduate School, and Ph.D. student at the University of Hawai’i at Manoa.
