Imagining Future Homeland Security Threats: Known and Likely to Unknown and Unlikely
The 9/11 Commission Report highlighted the most significant shortfall contributing to the attacks as a “failure of imagination” due to leaders not understanding and perceiving the gravity of the threat. Looking forward to preventing the next 9/11 from occurring, homeland security officials need to step outside of planning for attacks, emergencies, and disasters that are known and likely to think about those that are unknown and unlikely. Imagination occurs in the space beyond our current experiences.
A group of researchers at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security worked collectively to populate the grid that is pictured above. Each sticky note represents a threat. We invite input and an on-going conversation from readers on additional threats that have not been imagined yet.
Known and Likely
The threats in this quadrant represent things that have occurred and will occur again. These threats are scoped at the national level and within individual communities, they may be unknown or unlikely (even impossible).
Hurricanes, Flooding, Earthquakes, and Natural Disasters
National Debt
Climate Change
Radicalization of US Citizens and Lone Wolf Terrorist Attacks
Active Shooters
Illegal Immigration
Cyber Attacks (e.g., small and targeted impact, denial of service, data theft)
Fire and Hazmat Emergencies
Spread of Contagious Disease (e.g., Ebola, H1N1, common cold, flu)
Antibacterial Drug Resistance
Obesity
Civil Unrest and Riots
Pollution of Water Supplies
Failure of Lifeline Infrastructure Systems (e.g., blackouts, Puerto Rico’s power grid, dams overtopping, bridge collapses)
Known and Unlikely
This quadrant represents the threats that are established and well understood but are unlikely to happen.
Catastrophic Economic Crash (e.g., Great Depression)
Widespread Infrastructure System Failure (e.g., Nation-wide Blackout)
Loss of Food Supply
Asteroid Strike
Electromagnetic Pulse Attack
Mass Casualties from Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) Attack
Assassination of Senior Government Official
Nuclear Annihilation from another Nation-State
Contested Election Results Leading to Breakdown of Democratic Process
Nuclear Meltdown of Commercial Facility
Extinction of Critical Plant, Animal, or Inspect Population (e.g., bees)
Religious Warfare
Mass Infertility
GPS or Satellite-Based System Failure
Unknown and Likely
The threats within this quadrant are not well known, acknowledged, or understood but are likely to occur.
Global Use of Cyber Currency Replacing U.S. Monetary System
Collapse of Health Care System
Widespread Breach of Social Contracts
Autonomous Vehicles
Full Depletion of Petroleum, Natural Gas, Coal, and Other Fossil Fuels
Members of Criminal Group Elected to Public Office by Legitimate Elections
Major Cyber Attack (e.g., total outage of SCADA systems)
Privately Owned Major Military
Global Pandemic
Solar Flare
Global Zoological Disease Outbreak
Sub-Climate Shift for Geographic Regions (e.g., sub-tropical to tropical, ice cap to sub-arctic)
Out of Control Artificial Intelligence
Major Terrorist Attack by New Method
World War III
Unknown and Unlikely
This quadrant is defined by imagination because the threats have not happened and may never happen while still existing in the realm of remote possibility.
Total Loss of the Internet
Global Natural Disaster
End of Weather
Single Global Currency
Discovery of New Hyper-Valuable Material Shifting Global Wealth
Collapse of U.S. Government
Defeat of U.S. Military by Nation-State
New U.S. Constitution
Unexplained Mass Extinctions
Development of Neutron Bomb
New Human Predator
Teleporter Invented
Invention of Warp Drive
Discovery of Hyper-Intelligent Animal
Breach of Earth’s Core
Single Earth Nation
Aliens
Looking Into the Future
In a rapidly accelerating world defined by complexity, dependency, scarcity, and interconnectedness, the homeland security community needs to think beyond the bounds of what appears possible to imagine the next threat to our nation.
David Riedman is an expert in critical infrastructure protection, disaster preparedness, and emergency management. He is a co-founder of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Advanced Thinking and Experimentation (HSx) Program at the Naval Postgraduate School.
