Neville Chamberlain’s UK, is it Deja Vous for the U.S.?
Neville Chamberlain was the prime minister of the United Kingdom from 1937 to 1940. Unfortunately, he is mostly known for a foreign policy of appeasement that included conceding the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany. History has not been kind to Chamberlain even though he was doing what he thought was best for a country still reeling from memory of WWI. Will the U.S. be viewed similarly in history when it comes to Russia?
The old Russian bear and its fearless, and often shirtless leader Vladimir Putin are rising again. Flush with petrodollars, the bear stumbled out of hibernation and in 2008 decided to take a stroll through Georgia. Not our lovely southern state, but the country in Eastern Europe.
Russia invaded and occupied the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia which accounts for about 20% of country’s territory. The U.S. and a few other nations condemned Russia and imposed minor economic sanctions. This was just the opening act of the Russian bear’s “take it on the road” belligerence.
In the next scene, masked soldiers in insignia-less uniforms and pro-Russian locals took Crimea from the Ukraine and declared its independence. In response, the U.S., the U.N., and a few other nations condemned Russia, imposed economic sanctions, and expelled it from the G-8. The Russian response was basically “pfft” and then they turned off the natural gas to Europe.
The bear was not satisfied with just Crimea and decided their Ukrainian neighbor needed to be mauled again. Pro-Russian separatists began demonstrations in the Eastern Ukraine Donbass area that quickly escalated into an armed conflict. Tragically, these Pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists are the prime suspects in the shooting down Malaysia Air MH17 in July 2014 killing all 298 on board.
Next, in August 2014, Russian forces in unmarked uniforms (see the pattern here) including tanks, armored vehicles, and heavy weapons crossed into the Donbass in support of the separatists. Russia attempted to keep up the charade by continuing to send weapons, ammunition, and other support for these separatists in “humanitarian aid convoys.” The world’s response to this conflict has pretty much been the same as with the Crimea and with similar effect: anemic.
Russia continued its march in the fall of 2015 by deploying troops, fighter planes, and heavy bombers to support President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian Civil War. Russia has gone all in this conflict conducting bombing and missile attacks on ISIL and other anti-al Assad rebels including “accidently targeting” Western supported forces. Al-Assad’s government which had been on the verge of collapse has now regained the initiative and is re-taking territory. Team Russia — al-Assad also includes the Iranians which is an increasingly troubling alliance. The U.S. response has been underwhelming even after al-Assad “crossed the red line” by using chemical weapons.
Russia has also decided it will “bear” its teeth at the U.S. and our allies directly by increasing flights of nuclear capable bombers near Alaska, Canada, the West coast, and NATO countries in Europe at levels exceeding the Cold War. On the 4th of July, 2015, a pair of Russian bombers flew down the entire western coast of the U.S. and did a little “Maverick and Goose communicating” with intercepting fighters. The Russian bear continues to be a general nuisance whenever possible; flying over U.S. aircraft carriers; conducting high speed passes over U.S. destroyers; and harassing military aircraft in international airspace. While the U.S. continues to reduce forces under Sequestration, Russia is deploying new and improved cruise missile systems, adding a new class of missile submarine to carry them, and building bases and stationing forces in the Arctic.
Unfortunately, we seem to have adopted the same attitude towards other belligerents like China, Iran and North Korea. I for one am getting a sense of historical deja vous. Is the U.S. the new Neville Chamberlain’s UK? For good or for bad, depending on your perspective, it is up to you to decide. The main question is will it end the same way? Let’s hope not.
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