Up in Smoke? How the U.S. Legalization of Marijuana Affects the Illicit Drug Trade
I’ve been a federal law enforcement officer for 20 years, so I’ve worked extensively on the drug war during my time both on the U.S.-Mexico border and in several other geographic locations. One thing that stands out in my career has been the softening of this country’s approach to cannabis enforcement. Compared to when I started, the approach to the issue has done a complete 180! A close friend of mine who also works in law enforcement in the Midwest says to me one day, “When I arrest people who have weed I tell them I have good and bad news for them and I ask them which they want first. They usually say they want the bad news first, so I tell them that they are going to jail for a while. Then they ask for the good news and I tell them by the time they get out, weed will be legal!” Evidence suggests there’s some truth to that statement in states like his where cannabis is illegal.
When I started my career, I arrested people with a few hundred pounds to several thousand pounds of Mexican-grown cannabis destined for the U.S. Typically, they would be sentenced to at least a year in federal prison. As time passed, those types of sentences decreased to the point where Assistant U.S. Attorneys wouldn’t take a case because it didn’t “meet prosecutorial guidelines.” This coincided with a push for medical cannabis legalization domestically. Since 1995, when I began my career, twenty-three states and Washington D.C. have legalized cannabis for medical use, while four states (Alaska, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado) have enacted laws for the recreational use of marijuana. How will this trend affect non-legal States?
The 2009 Ogden Memo and 2013 Cole Memo, signed by the Deputy U.S. Attorney Generals of the same names, set guidelines for enforcing cannabis laws at the federal level. While cannabis is still a controlled substance according to the Controlled Substances Act, enforcement of federal criminal statues seems reserved for more orchestrated criminal enterprise rather than the low-level dealer or user. In essence, both memos would suggest that if you are a recreational user, patient, or legal dispensary, you have nothing to worry about.
What does this mean? From a law enforcement perspective, it means lost market share for drug trafficking organizations due to a new, substantial competitor, the U.S. government. Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence firm, cites that wholesale values for cannabis in the U.S. vary from $1,100 to $13,000 per kilogram, depending on quality. By comparison, the street value of crystal methamphetamine ranges from $19,720 to $87,717 per kilogram. If you’re a drug trafficking organization, it’s easy to see what’s on the horizon for your organization: profit loss.
Ryan King and Mark Mauer indicate in the U.S. between 1990 and 2002, 82% of the national increase in drug arrests were for cannabis related offenses, with virtually all of those for possession, resulting in the expenditure of about $4 billion per year dedicated to minor offenses that were either dismissed or adjudicated as a misdemeanor. From the U.S. Government’s perspective, this seems like a massive resource expenditure for minimal return and would suggest that government resources could be more effectively applied.
Colorado estimates an $87 million tax revenue stream this year from cannabis sales, $40 million of which will be used to build schools. On November 4th, through a state ballot, voters agreed the state should keep $66 million of additional, unexpected tax revenue, rather than refund it. This tax revenue will also be reinvested into schools, law enforcement, and drug education. Couple this with drug trafficking organizations hedging black market cannabis losses by investing in other drug commodities and criminal justice savings on de-prioritization of cannabis. These factors seem to favor growing momentum behind the country’s changing stance on cannabis.
Certainly there are unknowns that will become more clear with time. Questions related to health impacts, driving under the influence, diversion, youth drug education and the potential for abuse — these issues will take a while to examine. One substantial question is how legalization in some states will affect other non-legal states. Will other states take on increased drug trafficking activity as a means for trafficking organizations to hedge their losses? This question will also take some time to answer, but for now, it appears the question is not if legal cannabis will come to your state, but when.
Between now and then, what can state and local governments do to mitigate the potential increase of drug trafficking activity in non-legal cannabis states, or are they at the whim of states that have legalized cannabis?
MikeNCM is a contributor to the Homeland Security (HS) Vortex which is a platform where insiders from the policy, law enforcement, fire service and emergency management fields converge to discuss issues related to Homeland Security.
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