Water Terrorism on the Horizon
With recent headlines focusing on the ongoing water shortages of the western United States, what should we know about how water impacts our security?
In a 2012 report, the United States Intelligence Community assessed that the use of water in conflict — either as a weapon or as a means to achieve future terrorist objectives — would become more likely starting after 2020.
Between now and 2040, it is estimated fresh water availability will fall short of world demand (unless new technologies are developed or the use of more efficient management of water resources can compensate).
In developing countries, water problems combine with existing poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffective leadership, and weak political institutions. These and other factors can conceivably contribute to increased nation-state instability or even potential state failure, thereby placing millions of citizens at risk. Many countries important to the United States will experience water problems that will increase their risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important policy objectives.
It is believed by 2030, one-third of the world’s population will live near water sources with rates of water use exceeding natural water source replenishment by more than 50%. Areas assessed to be at risk of thus experiencing high “water stress” include most of Africa, the Middle East region, Australia, parts of south Asia, and the western United States.
Failed water delivery will result in insufficient agricultural crops being produced, which could reduce a nation’s economic vitality, affect its ability to feed its population, and add new health and sanitation concerns to already-growing lists of national problems.
In that vacuum, it is estimated that some non-state actors, such as motivated extremists or hard-core terrorists, will almost certainly target vulnerable water infrastructure to achieve their objectives.
As water shortages become more acute, water in shared regions will increasingly be used as leverage by nation states in international forums, pressuring investors and trading partners and cutting off water supplies to down-stream nations.
Physical infrastructure — such as dams, canals, transport pipes, and pumping stations — will become important targets for extremists, terrorists, or rogue nation states. Even if an attack is unsuccessful, the fear of massive flooding, contamination, or loss of critically needed water could greatly alarm the public and fuel discontent.
In general, the United States is believed to benefit from an increased demand for agricultural exports as water scarcity increases in various parts of the world. Further, the world looks to the United States for support in developing new water treatment processes like desalination technology as well as remote sensing systems and modeling tools to locate new water sources and better manage current resources.
The increasing lack of water may cause terrorists to take matters into their own hands and forcefully reallocate this critical resource based upon their own ideological desires and motivations. As with other matters, any assistance or technology provided by the United States that runs counter to extreme ideological desires may encourage retribution against the United States abroad and at home.
As we approach the third decade of the 21st Century, the continuing depletion of the world’s available water resources and the resulting global instability such shortages may generate should be a warning to homeland security professionals to increase their international vigilance.
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