Without A Bang

Planning for slow onset hazards and emerging threats

When one thinks of the threats and hazards homeland security and emergency management professionals plan for, incidents such as bombings, earthquakes and cyber attacks usually come to mind. These types of destructive acts are at the forefront of the efforts that emergency planners at all levels of government tend to focus on. These events are very tangible making it easier for managers and responders to conceptualize and formulate contingencies for. However, there is a whole set of threats that does not receive the attention that the more immediate and concrete do.

Long term or “slow onset” or emerging threats are often overlooked and should also be the focus of homeland security and emergency management practitioners. “The September 2010 Local, State, Tribal, and Federal Preparedness Task Force report to Congress called for (1) improving the ability to strategically forecast emerging preparedness requirements and associated policies and/or capabilities and (2) develop a strategic policy planning process that prepares for future challenges by performing long-range assessment[1].” Dr. Sharon Caudle, formerly with the Government Accountability Office Homeland Security and Justice Team and a past professor at the George Washington and Texas A&M Universities, has testified before Congress on the importance of these types of issues. Among the conditions in need of more attention from a homeland security and emergency management framework are environmental, demographic, economic, political and health trends.

Dr. Caudle is not alone, the Quadrennial Reports of both the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security and the Director of National Intelligence’s (DNI) Statement of Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence address the hazards of infection disease or pandemics, and natural resource scarcity or security. The DHS and the DNI’s reports also mention the growing threat of Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCO). Other potential risks include climate change and its resulting affects and the increasing influence of emerging non-government organizations in place of traditional governments.

Examples of the effects from these threats include:

· More frequent and severe weather events such as flooding, hurricanes, and tornados

· De-stabilization of weak governments and the breakdown of internal and international laws

· Undermining of current global standards and agreements (i.e. — Bitcoins as an ungoverned currency)

· New antibiotic resistant and medically treatable strains of disease

· Energy shortages and increased conflict over resources including fresh water

· Population and demographic shifts that tax countries’ allocations

The term “Societal Security” is one that has been used by Swedish homeland security officials to describe their adoption of both the short and long term concerns that they face as a nation. As Dr. Caudle has advocated for, the United States needs to start paying closer attention to these emerging threats as well as those more apparent and immediate hazards the nation faces.

[1] Caudle, Sharon, Homeland Security: Advancing the National Strategic Position, Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Volume VIII, 2012