Better Risk Management…DOUBT IT!
In leadership, doubt often gets a bad rap. Doubt is frequently seen as a sign of weakness or indecision.
Per this, in a message to the entire agency, Former FBI Director Jim Comey wrote:
“Sometimes in modern culture, doubt is derided as a weakness. I don’t believe that. I actually think doubt is wisdom. Of course, I don’t mean ‘finger pointing in the wind’ doubt or ‘I’m afraid to make decisions’ doubt. Hard decisions have to be made, and in my experience, the harder they are the faster they have to be made, and often on the basis of the least information. Good leaders make timely decisions, especially when it matters most, but wise leaders make them knowing they could be wrong, that they could be missing something.”
When I feel doubt, in general, I tend to slow down. Doubt my directions — decelerate. Doubt my menu choice — ask the server for more time. Doubt my play call — take a timeout. You get the idea.
However, when harnessed correctly, doubt can be a powerful tool for risk management because doubt exposes risk. Doubt encourages deeper inquiry, prompts critical thinking, and helps prevent costly mistakes. Here’s how leaders can use doubt to better manage risk.
1. Ask More Questions
Leaders should foster an environment wherein questioning the status quo is not just accepted but also encouraged. Team members’ feeling safe to express their doubts leads to more thorough analysis and fewer blind spots. When facing important organizational decisions, prompt your team by asking, “Three years from now…why did this fail?” or “What could we be overlooking?” or “What information do we still need to collect?”
2. Use Doubt to Fuel Data-Driven Decisions
Doubt can act as a safeguard against hasty decisions based on gut feelings or incomplete information. By allowing doubt to prompt further investigation, leaders can ensure that decisions are backed by solid data. Before making critical decisions, ask for the data that supports the choice, and consider alternative interpretations of that data.
3. Play Devil’s Advocate
Sometimes, doubt needs to be deliberately introduced into discussions to uncover hidden risks. In the Army, this is called wargaming. Others refer to it as Red Teaming. No matter the term, assign someone the role of a devil’s advocate to challenge the prevailing assumptions and explore worst-case scenarios. Raising doubts can help identify potential risks — and related contingency plans — that may not have been initially.
4. Balance Confidence with Caution
While confidence is crucial for leadership, overconfidence can blind leaders to potential risks. Doubt serves as a counterbalance, reminding leaders to consider the limitations of their knowledge and the possibility of unforeseen variables. By balancing confidence with a healthy dose of doubt, leaders can make more measured and resilient decisions.
5. Reassess Decisions Regularly
Doubt isn’t just for the decision-making process; doubt is also valuable for revisiting decisions after they’ve been made. Regularly reassess key decisions using After Action Reviews and allow leaders to adjust strategies in response to new information or changing circumstances.
Doubt, when used appropriately, is not a sign of weakness but a crucial element of risk management and leader’s intuition. Embrace doubt as an ally, and it will serve you well in making more-informed, better decisions while simultaneously surfacing and managing risk.
