The Power of Positive Self-Delusion and its Cost

Jat Thompson
Aug 29, 2017 · 3 min read

What is it about Ryan Leaf and Johnny Manziel that made them incredible collegiate superstars but complete busts in the NFL? I would argue it was overconfidence. Ryan Leaf, in his own words shared this joke, “What’s the difference between God and Ryan Leaf? God doesn’t think he’s Ryan Leaf.”

Intuitively, we all know that confidence positively contributes to an athlete’s performance. What may be surprising is that research suggests that overconfidence will also improve an athlete’s performance…to a point. According to research published in the journal Nature, the evolutionary principal of natural selection is likely to have favored a bias toward overconfidence because it maximizes individual fitness and frequently brings rewards — as long as the gains sufficiently outweigh the costs to compete for them*.

How does this apply to athletics?

In short, overconfident athletes are delusional (by definition) and for some, this overconfidence, gives them an edge to perform beyond what most would consider reasonably possible. It’s their overconfidence that fosters a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby the individual’s exaggerated view of self increases ambition and morale, discounts failure to external circumstances, and attributes accomplishment to one’s inflated ability. Each of these factors contribute to an increased probability of successful performance.

While overconfidence may contribute to increased performance, it also stifles development. An overconfident athlete is intrinsically motivated to maintain this delusional positive self-image by avoiding negative information, selecting easy tasks and rejecting more difficult tasks, which hinders improvement. As the research suggests, overconfidence favors the athlete that performs at a certain level of competition but as competition increases the cost will outweigh the “reward.” Whether it be in college or the pros, at some point in an athlete’s career, an over reliance on God-given talent will not lead to the same results. Instead, it will also require a work ethic geared toward personal improvement to increase performance to achieve similar results experienced at the lower levels of competition.

Coaches — here’s your challenge:

The moment the overconfident athlete comes to the realization, either consciously or subconsciously, that his innate ability will no longer be enough to achieve the same results, puts him in a very vulnerable place. A predictable response will be to avoid this reality in order to maintain the fragile self-image. However, you, as the coach, can influence this natural response.

First, you must be aware of the crucible moment and this requires being attentive to your players; do you know your players well enough to recognize that moment? If you act too early then your help will be dismissed and if you are too late…well, you’re just too late. Second, your help must come from a place of trust and love; have you earned it? Third, you must have patience. These athletes will have a hard time genuinely acknowledging the need to improve because that requires humility and an openness to learning which contradict overconfidence. This new realization will feel foreign and threatening and will take time to accept.

An even greater challenge will be putting in the necessary effort of performance improvement. Coaches must recognize these athletes are toddlers when it comes to their work ethic and will require a lot of focused attention to help them establish new habits. You must ask yourself, “Will he do what is required and, more importantly, will you?”

*https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v477/n7364/full/nature10384.html

HorizonPerformance

Own your outcome.

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Thanks to Alexandra KM

Jat Thompson

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HorizonPerformance

Own your outcome.

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