In and Out Strategy: Restart
After publishing In and Out Strategy:Part 2:The End, in October, 2022, we immediately started looking for improvements that would make the basic idea viable again. What we found was simple. Our “Out” portfolio was too complicated, so we simplified that to a short-term treasury asset (SHV), tuned up the “Out” signal, and found a strategy that is “Simple yet Sophisticated”. Simple in understanding and execution, yet sophisticated in the quantitative analysis needed to validate and verify the core investment thesis.
TL; DR
We’ve rebranded our effort as InvestIt Now, with an Investit Now Substack, and a Telegram signals channel, which can be viewed on InvestitNow Telegram . The Telegram channel will deliver the free signal for the “In and Out” strategy
Understanding the In and Out Strategy
The core of our approach in the In and Out strategy, is to produce a signal that guides investors through bull and bear markets. This involves investing in the S&P 500 index (SPY) during bull markets and Treasury bill ETF (SHV) during bear markets, using our strategy’s signal to tell when to get “Out” and when to be “In”.
Performance and Analysis
- The In and Out strategy has been rigorously backtested and analyzed, showing consistent positive returns and effective risk management. Over the past five years, the model has shown a cumulative returns improvement of 23% over S&P 500 (SPY) cumulative returns.
- Using equity SPY with strategy: InandOut during period: [2018–08–09, 2023–08–08], we have:
- Cumulative Returns: 103% CAGR:15% Max Drawdown:-15%
- Period Returns: 3month:10.0, 6month: 9%, 1yr:23%, 3yr:15%, 5yr:15%
Risk Measures/Month: Sharpe:1.1 Mean:14.8% Volatility:13.4%
Please review our three articles on Substack pointed to above for more details, and don’t miss our next articles on this and other simple, yet sophisticated strategies!
