Why Politics is Predictably Unpredictable
All the variations of the phrase ‘history repeats itself’ express the same idea in a slightly different way. We are riding a wheel that turns over and over again — sometimes forward, sometimes backward — but turning on itself all the same.
Underpinning this idea is another. The motors of history, like politics, are mechanistic. If we can break down how our interactions work, we can understand the outcomes of an election or war as we do the cycles of a clock.
A while back, I went down an e-rabbit hole and came across a cool, interactive simulation of the Double Pendulum on myPhysicsLab.com. I really recommend you open the link in another window and play with it while you read this article. Partly so you see my point, but mostly because it’s fun!
When the simulation starts, the pendulum swings in a slow, stable and predictable pattern. Now, click on the pendulum and give it a bigger push. The change is dramatic. It transforms into a nonlinear system with causes having dynamic and unpredictable effects. In a word, chaos.
How does something so deceivingly simple become so complex? Skimming over the mind-boggling math, the main reason is what is called initial conditions. The slightest change in the starting position of the pendulum or the forces acting on it leads to completely different and unpredictable trajectories.
Why am I writing about swinging pendulums? Let’s go back to that driver of history: politics.
I am a current events addict. First thing I do in the morning is scour the news and try to connect the dots from D.C. to Timbuktu. When a big story breaks, I play a game. I jot down a few of predictions based on the information available and a set of assumptions. Then I see which one, if any, sticks.
It’s a mental fidget, like trying to guess which way the Double Pendulum will go next. The starting position for any event, no matter how repeated it seems, is never the same. The forces pushing and pulling it are never constant. The number of joints pivoting and acting on each other are innumerable and in perpetual motion. What’s more, information for all these factors is imperfect.
Sure, there are times when the pendulum sways smooth and stable. We can take snapshots and say, ‘look, it’s kind of repeating that other pattern… if we ignore all times it doesn’t’. You can make short-term forecasts of where it will go next based on the trajectory it is already on. Some even muster the power to push the pendulum their way for a time. But no one can control or foresee where it will ultimately lead.
Like the Double Pendulum, politics is unpredictable. But there is at least one thing you can count on. Just when you think you have it figured out, an unforeseen change is on its way.
