Don’t Count Out the Boston Bruins
While Claude Julien was fired last week, the hockey world has been discussing the potential move for more than a month. At the time of his termination the Bruins found themselves one point out of a playoff spot, on pace to miss the postseason tournament for the third straight season. With a negative goal differential and a 4–5–1 record in those last 10 games, Boston definitely doesn’t appear to be a team that has a realistic chance at making a Stanley Cup run. Many people I’ve talked to over the past week seem to agree with that sentiment.
I disagree with that notion, but first let’s do a quick dive into the Bruins’ play this season. You may have heard that they currently lead the entire league in shot differential, with a whopping 56% in score-adjusted Corsi For %. So if the self-proclaimed experts have been telling you for the recent past that shot differential is the key to success in the NHL, why are the Bruins struggling? The answer lies in their shooting and save percentages. The team ranks last in shooting percentage and second to last in save percentage, which means that although they’re dominating the shot battle they’re struggling to capitalize on those opportunities and outscore other teams.
The first question to ask yourself is why the Bruins find themselves at the bottom of these rankings. In terms of shooting, aside from strikingly unlucky seasons from players such as Patrice Bergeron and Riley Nash, Boston is scoring at about the rate you would expect. This team is not loaded with scoring talent. In net, however, the issues are readily apparent. Tuukka Rask has a save percentage of 91.1% this season, which is below his career average of 92.3%. That still looks good compared to what the Bruins have behind him. In seasons where Rask has played the most games for the Bruins, his backups have combined for a 91.2% save percentage. This season the number rests at 87.1%, which represents such porous goaltending that it’s difficult to believe that the Bruins are still in the playoff hunt.
With all of that information, you may wonder how I could possibly believe that the Bruins are a legitimate playoff threat. Let’s start by taking a look at every team since the 2007–08 season who finished in the top five of shot differentials but bottom five of shooting percentages:
The teams included pretty much run the gamut from missing the playoffs entirely to winning the Stanley Cup. It is interesting to note that nearly a quarter of the teams listed here went on to win the championship, with Los Angeles doing so twice. I think that Los Angeles is a great comparison for this Bruins team: a physical shot-share juggernaut which lacks elite scoring talent and has a netminder fully capable of providing championship-level goaltending. Those 2012 and 2014 Kings teams which won the Cup looked so utterly dominant during the playoffs even though they missed out on the tournament entirely in other years. The reason for this is that they truly do play a dominant game but are often incapable of capitalizing on their plentiful opportunities. Merely a small uptick in luck, however, and the Kings are the team that nobody else wants to face.
The same can be said about this year’s Bruins. Right now they’re a team that’s struggling to string together wins and stay in the thick of the playoff hunt. Once April rolls around, all eyes in the Eastern Conference will be on the Capitals and Penguins (and to a lesser extent the Blue Jackets, Rangers and Canadiens). But Boston could easily be the 2017 iteration of the team who sneaks into a wild card spot, then seemingly comes out of nowhere and steamrolls its opponents en route to a championship.
