Kevin Shattenkirk: A Deep Dive
NHL free agent signings on July 1st rarely end well. The overall opinion of such a deal tends to range from “okay” to “an abomination”. The New York Rangers bucked that trend this year when they signed defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk to a four-year contract which carries an annual cap hit of $6.65M. Shattenkirk, a 28 year old New York native who has played for the Colorado Avalanche, St. Louis Blues and Washington Capitals, left money and term on the table in order to sign a team-friendly contract. The right-handed blueliner fills a gaping hole atop the team’s depth chart, one which has hindered the team throughout its recent six-season stretch during which the team has won nine playoff series yet not one Stanley Cup.
There does seem to be debate over whether or not Kevin Shattenkirk truly is a first pairing defenseman, with concerns focused on his lack of competition and seemingly suspect defensive play. This piece takes a closer look at several aspects of Shattenkirk’s game in order to get a better sense of what the Rangers can expect from him.
(All even strength numbers are from 2013–2017, considering defensemen with a minimum of 2000 minutes played during that stretch.)
Even Strength Offense
Kevin Shattenkirk has always been considered an offensive defenseman. His numbers certainly don’t dispel that notion, with his 0.87 points scored per 60 minutes of ice time placing him 34th among qualified defensemen since 2013. He does a solid job of driving shots as well, ranking 61st among the same group in terms of his impact on his team’s shot attempts per hour. A common critique of shot attempts, or corsi, is that all attempts are not created equal. Thankfully, Micah Blake McCurdy has produced some great visualizations which show unblocked shot attempts from different areas in the zone. Red indicates an area where more shots are taken than the league average, while blue indicates fewer. The top two images here show St. Louis’ shot attempts with and without Shattenkirk, with Washington’s attempts shown below:
It is clear from looking at these heat maps that Shattenkirk isn’t simply firing away from the point — his play results in more shots right down the middle of the ice and particularly in the slot, where some of the most dangerous chances are created. This falls right in line with the prevailing notion that Shattenkirk is a strong offensive player. He doesn’t change the game drastically in the attacking zone but you can certainly count on him to contribute his fair share of offense.
Even Strength Defense
While most would agree with what I’ve written until now, this next claim is sure to invite criticism: Kevin Shattenkirk is a bona fide shutdown defenseman. His shot suppression (five fewer attempts allowed per 60 minutes) ranks ninth in the league over the past four seasons, placing him among such celebrated defenders as Chris Tanev, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. In fact, every single defenseman to play at least 50 minutes with Shattenkirk over the last four seasons (with the exception of Colton Parayko, an elite blueliner in his own right) has allowed fewer shots against when Shattenkirk is on the ice. His ability to drive down opposing shot totals is undeniable.
As with his offense, however, you can make the argument that it’s all about quality — he may be allowing fewer shot attempts, but if they are coming from dangerous areas then what does it really matter? Once again we can turn to McCurdy’s heat maps, this time looking for blue (lower than average) areas:
The evidence is clear: when Shattenkirk is on the ice, you’re not getting the puck to the front of the net. His results on a Washington team which was considered a juggernaut all season are particularly surprising, as they seemed to struggle with their slot defense when #22 wasn’t patrolling the area.
Numbers and viz are one thing, but visual evidence helps to really show how Shattenkirk is so effective defensively. This first series of video clips is from a game the Blues played against the Boston Bruins in November.
I’m a sucker for understated-yet-effective plays by defensemen and this one certainly starts off that way. As Jimmy Hayes approaches the St. Louis blue line, Shattenkirk doesn’t really seem to be doing anything. However, he is closing the gap without being caught flat-footed. He puts his stick right on Hayes’, which is one of the most important aspects of playing defense and makes it very difficult for the Bruin to do much with the puck. This action nullifies the attempted dumping of the puck and Shattenkirk continues to keep Hayes uncomfortable, not allowing him to easily regain possession. There isn’t quite enough separation for Kyle Brodziak to pick up the puck and turn up ice, but Shattenkirk’s breakup means that Hayes must settle for a feeble chip into the corner instead of being able to barrel in with speed.
Shattenkirk takes a page out of an NBA playbook here, setting a pick on Ryan Spooner which gives Carl Gunnarsson an extra step on the forechecker. Kevin then pivots and opens himself up for an outlet pass, the entire time keeping his body facing in the direction of the puck. Gunnarsson passes the puck back to his waiting partner, who smoothly pivots back to a forward position and looks up ice.
Eight seconds prior, Shattenkirk was defending his own blue line from an oncoming attacker. Thanks to his strong positioning, active stick and awareness to support his partner, he now finds miles of open ice ahead of him. He looks off the Boston defenders by threatening a pass to Brodziak before firing a stretch pass up to Scottie Upshall, instantly creating an odd-man rush and dangerous scoring chance. In fact, if he wasn’t out there with the fourth line (more on that later), our featured defenseman may have tallied an assist on that play.
The second clip we are going to look at is during a game against the Detroit Red Wings in February, as the end of Kevin’s tenure in the Gateway City rapidly approaches. It features three zone entry attempts by the Red Wings targeting Shattenkirk, each a more impressive display of defense than the last.
As Thomas Vanek receives this pass, Shattenkirk quickly moves over to close the gap and extends his stick, preventing an easy pass over to the streaking Justin Abdelkader. Kevin gets the puck out of the zone without too much trouble, but the uncontrolled exit means that Detroit is likely to come back down for another chance.
Shattenkirk is following Vanek toward center ice as the next attempt manifests in an errant cross-ice pass. Shattenkirk spins around to react to this development and, although he isn’t square to the puck when it arrives, manages to make a deft one-touch pass to Magnus Paajarvi, who brings the puck back up ice before dumping it in.
As the puck gets rimmed around to Anthony Mantha near the blue line, Shattenkirk finds himself on the opposite side of the ice. However, he sees that Alex Pietrangelo has just stepped onto the ice. At this point, Shattenkirk realizes two things: firstly, Pietrangelo is a right-handed defensemen and will need to switch sides with Shattenkirk in order to both assume his natural position and make it easier for Shattenkirk to change; secondly, Pietrangelo has just been thrust into an unenviable situation with Mantha on a rush. Shattenkirk, acting quickly and decisively, takes off across the ice. He makes up considerable ground and angles Mantha toward the boards as the pair crosses the blue line. Shattenkirk is clearly at a size disadvantage to Mantha, who has him beat by five inches and fifteen pounds, but he engages physically and ultimately forces Mantha to throw an ill-advised centering pass to the slot, which is easily cleared away by the Blues. This final play by Shattenkirk showcases awareness, speed and physicality, all at once.
Although these are purely anecdotal examples, when combined with statistical analysis it becomes evident that Kevin Shattenkirk uses all of the tools at his disposal to effectively defend in his own zone. The Rangers will be pleased to have a first pairing defenseman who can separate the puck from oncoming attackers and quickly transition to offense.
Power Play Offense
Shattenkirk has always been known as a power play specialist. Rob Vollman, in this NHL.com piece, makes the case for his power play reputation pretty clearly:
“This may be the easiest selection to make, because there are few statistical categories where Shattenkirk, 28, does not lead NHL defensemen at 5-on-4 by a wide margin.
His average of 6.84 points per 60 minutes is 1.60 points better than that of Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman, who is second (5.24).
The Capitals and St. Louis Blues averaged 9.78 goals per 60 minutes with Shattenkirk on the ice, 1.05 higher than the second-best figure, the Capitals’ average of 8.73 with defenseman Matt Niskanen on the ice. That 9.78 average also represents an NHL-leading scoring boost of 3.47 goals per 60 minutes above the average scoring rate for Shattenkirk’s team when he wasn’t on the ice (6.31). The only other defenseman with an increase of more than 2.00 goals per 60 minutes was Sami Vatanen of the Anaheim Ducks (2.61).”
There is only one way in which I would amend that glowing review of Shattenkirk’s man-advantage play. In today’s NHL it is increasingly common for teams to feature more than three forwards on the power play, as the offensive advantages tend to outweigh any defensive deficiences. Yet even when compared to all skaters, Shattenkirk ranks second behind Nicklas Backstrom in points per 60 minutes and fifth in terms of boosting his team’s scoring rate. Those numbers lend even further credence to the idea that Shattenkirk is a world-class talent on the power play.
Quality of Competition/Teammates
The final piece to the puzzle is a factor which has haunted Shattenkirk for years and cast doubt over his impressive statistics — he doesn’t play “tough minutes”. Part of it is certainly due to the fact that the right side of the St. Louis defense is stacked with Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko. But clearly coach Ken Hitchcock did not believe in Shattenkirk’s ability to handle a heavy load — Pietrangelo consistently plays more minutes per game and his most frequent competition includes Jonathan Toews, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Patrick Kane and Blake Wheeler. Kevin’s list, although nothing to sneeze at, isn’t quite as impressive: Craig Smith, Cody Eakin, Antoine Roussel, Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon.
Although it’s obvious that Pietrangelo is facing some of the stiffest competition in the league, the debate still rages over how best to measure quality of competition and how much of a difference it can truly make. What often is overlooked, however, is that the quality of teammates a player plays with makes much more of a difference. Take Pietrangelo, for example: he has played 678 minutes COMBINED versus those five aforementioned players over the past four seasons. During that same time period he has played more than 1400 minutes with Vladimir Tarasenko and nearly 1900 with Alexander Steen. A player’s linemate has a much more considerable impact on his statistics than that of an opponent he plays against for fewer than 60 minutes per season.
When comparing the on-ice teammates of Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk over the past four seasons, this concept really seems to shift the narrative. Steen has played 897 more minutes with Pietrangelo than Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz has a difference of 459, Paul Stastny has a difference of 373 and T.J. Oshie has a difference of 489. This pattern doesn’t continue as you move down the lineup, however. Ryan Reaves has only played 100 more minutes with Pietrangelo than Shattenkirk, Kyle Brodziak and Scottie Upshall each have a difference of 95 and Maxim Lapierre actually played 72 MORE minutes with Shattenkirk than Pietrangelo. What this means is that while Shattenkirk may be facing middle-six players more often than top line talents, he is spending a much higher percentage of his ice time with less skilled fourth liners . Simply put, there is no evidence that Kevin Shattenkirk’s impressive results are a consequence of easy minutes, as his quality of competition outweighs his quality of teammates.
The Future
Many New York fans are looking forward to the upcoming season, excited to watch the new free agent acquisition make his debut. Even then, I doubt that many truly realize how brilliant this move can turn out to be. Ryan McDonagh is a top-10 defenseman in the NHL who has been burdened by the subpar play of his defensive partners for much of his career. Not only is the narrative of an All-American first defense pairing featuring the Ranger captain and a childhood fan tailor-made for Hollywood, but the opportunity for both McDonagh and Shattenkirk to play with a partner who possesses a similar level of skill will allow each to unleash their full potential.
Kevin Shattenkirk has waited years to prove that he can be the all-around elite defenseman he believes he is. All of the evidence indicates that he will do just that.
Data courtesy of stats.hockeyanalysis.com
Viz courtesy of hockeyviz.com
