Collapsing East Ukraine Ceasefire, Explained
Hromadske International’s Sunday Show Examines The Crumbling Ceasefire In East Ukraine
The Sunday Show is the flagship TV-show produced by the Hromadske International team from its global headquarters in Kyiv, Ukraine. This is the only prime-time TV program explaining the Eastern European geopolitical storm in English.
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anchored by Nataliya Gumenyuk and Ian Bateson
produced by Isobel Koshiw, Stephen Gellner, Maxim Eristavi and Maria Zhdanova
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Last week Ukraine was hit with the largest bout of violence since the “Minsk II Ceasefire” was signed. Marinka near the Donetsk Airport was the latest hotspot to erupt in violence after a separatist attack was beaten back by the Ukrainian forces. Does this mark the beginning of a new campaign by the separatist forces who are reportedly backed by Russian troops? Is it justified to call an end to the Minsk II ceasefire? What strategies are being employed by Russia and to what ends?
Large Increase In Separatist Weaponry In The East
According to numerous reports, Ukrainian separatist forces have been stockpiling weapons and material across the controlled territory for weeks before recent escalation. Based on eyewitness accounts, rebels have amassed more tanks than the Germans, French and Czechs, combined. The ‘Minsk II’ ceasefire has looked anything but a truce, with Debaltseve getting captured by separatist forces, FSB officers being captured in Shchastya and most recently, a major assault by separatist forces on the town of Marinka, 30 km / 18 miles southwest of the city of Donetsk.
“It was the heaviest shelling of Marinka since the beginning of the war,” Polish journalist Pawel Pieniazek told Hromadske. The neighboring town of Krasnohorivka was also heavily shelled by separatist forces, said Peiniazek.
On June 3, 2015 separatist forces launched an attack on the Ukrainian government positions in Marinka, an East Ukrainian town on the front line. According to the UN, 28 people died in as a result of the offensive, including 9 civilians.
The locals were in shock, according to Pieniazek, as the situation in Marinka was calm for the past few months. Pieniazek told Hromadske that some of the people he spoke to in the West of the town could only lie on the ground because they did not have basements to hide in.
The Ukrainian soldiers Pieniazek spoke with were divided on whether the attack on Marinka marked the beginning of a new summer offensive but agreed that there was a large increase in separatist weaponry. One soldier, who was from Marinka and had been there when it was under separatist control last year, told Pieniazek that he had never seen that many tanks and that many of them looked new.
Ukraine Ceasefire Violations More Frequent & Intense
This is one the biggest explosions of violence that we’ve seen in a long time and it was very, very unexpected,” Michael Bociurkiw, spokesperson for the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine said of the recent violence in Marinka, which left 28 people dead.
Bocuirkiw told Hromadske that an OSCE drone actually observed heavy weaponry banned under the Minsk II Agreement heading towards the front line from the rebel controlled areas. Though the OSCE is still trying to ascertain exactly what happened, according to Bocuirkiw, they do know there was a lot of shelling, lots of heavy weaponry used and there was return fire.
Ceasefire violations have become more frequent and more intense, according to Bociurkiw. The escalation has worsened the humanitarian situation. He noted that this week the OSCE had observed the reintroduction of GRAD missiles which are unguided missiles that cause lots of damage to civilian neighborhoods.
On the resignation of Heidi Tagliavini - former representative of the OSCE in talks between Moscow, Kyiv, and separatists forces - Bociurkiw said that she stayed in the job a long time considering the situation and will need to be replaced very quickly. One of the ongoing issues at the trilateral talks, noted Bociurkiw, is that the separatist are sending junior representatives who do not represent the senior separatist commanders or the armed Cossack groups.
Bociurkiw told Hromadkse the OSCE’s access is sometimes restricted by both sides of the conflict but the situation is fluid. By Bociurkiw’s estimate, there were 80 patrols in Donetsk and Luhansk but there are no-go areas because of shelling or delays at checkpoints. Cossack units in Donetsk have warned the OSCE that if they were to come into contact with them ‘they would not receive a friendly welcome,’ according to Bociurkiw.
“We do remind both sides that under the Minsk Agreement, the OSCE should have secure and unfettered access. But I can tell you that even in the process of monitoring the withdraw of heavy weaponry, there are storage sites where they say you can’t go”.
Obama Has Outsourced The Ukraine War To Merkel
According to Kramer, director for Human Rights and Human Freedom at the McCain Institute, US President Barak Obama has stepped back “too far” from events in Ukraine. “He has contracted the resolution of the crisis out to [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel, who is doing the best she can,” said Kramer.
Kramer told Hromadkse that he believes that it will take a terrible development in Ukraine, such as a further serious invasion of the East, for Obama to change his mind on providing Ukraine with lethal assistance. At the moment, according to Kramer, there is bi-partisan support in US House and Senate for lethal assistance. Moreover, the Secretary of State, Vice President, Secretary of Defence, the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff and The Supreme Allied Commander — have all indicated their support.
To Build A Viable State Ukraine Must Avoid Russia’s Embrace
“The Kremlin cannot forget about one goal — containment of the West in Ukraine. They have to keep Ukraine in their embraces,” Lilia Shevtsova a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute told Hromadske.
However they might have to change their tactics to avoid further sanctions. “Over the next few months they will be trying to offer the West a new concept of peaceful co-existence — or collective management of the crisis,” said Shevtsova.
Their new tactics will be flexible, according to Shevtsova, and could include bribing the Ukrainian elite, co-opting part of the opposition or helping Ukraine to have a financial breakdown. Simultaneously Russia will begin creating an illusion to the West that the conflict is only about Donbas. It will create an impression that the conflict is not about a civilization clash but about something small and unimportant in the far east of Europe, to convince the West to no longer oppose Russia.
Ukraine is also becoming a trump card for President Putin to use in negotiations. He could attempt to negotiate for control over Ukraine in exchange for supporting the West in Syria and Iraq, according to Shevtsova.
She said that there are two main myths circulated with regards to Russia among policy makers. Firstly that Russia has authoritarianism in the ‘genetic code’ of the country with a fatal attraction to strongmen leaders and if you apply more sanctions, more people will mobilize around Putin. Though evidence indicates that Russians are interested in the country’s economic well-being. This trend might serve to distance Russian citizens from Putin as his campaign in Ukraine continues to adversely affect the country through incitement of Western sanctions. Secondly, that the West should accommodate Russia despite the fact that the West has been doing so for the last 20 years.
With regards to Ukraine the myths also include the need to accommodate Russia, as well as the fact that this is a civil war and that Ukraine cannot be armed because it is too corrupt. Though Ukraine and Russia are hostages of their geography and history, the only way for Ukraine to build its nation and the state is to try and escape Russia’s embraces as far as possible, Shevtsova told Hromadske. This cannot be done by military means or by building a wall — it needs to be done by building a viable state on the basis of rule of law, said Shevtsova.
Bellingcat Has Presented Evidence Which Is Very Uncomfortable For Russia
While many are worried about the ceasefire falling apart some Internet-based data mining groups are standing up in the face of mounting Ukraine related propaganda. “We presented a lot of evidence which is very uncomfortable for [Russia],” said Iggy Ostanin, an investigative journalist with Bellingcat, an open-source investigative journalism organization which focuses on ongoing conflicts.
Since joining Bellingcat, Ostanin notes that he has noticed a drop in number of social networks of Russian soldiers. The Russians are being more cautious and smartphones are also now banned. Ostanin gave the example of one post by a Russian soldier in a particular unit about a person who posted a video of some of their vehicles and the Russian Federal Security services (FSB) were there very quickly.
Bellingcat uses all methodologies available to gather evidence, according to Ostanin. “We don’t take a video or an image by a person and take their word for it. We look at the profile that posted it. Do they have a history of posts? Are they a local? Who are their friends? What can you see in the image or video? Can you see landscape, street signs?,” Ostanin told Hromadske. Then, according to him, they use google street view and satellite images to try and locate the exact coordinates of the image or video.
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