Navigating interacting uncertainties

5/5 posts reflecting on experiments in doing work differently

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2022 was a challenging year. Lots of things were uncertain at the same time. Sometimes it was scary! So, we had to quickly learn to navigate multiple interacting uncertainties as a step up from navigating one or two.

A process for mapping possible outcomes across uncertainties 🌊🔮

💡 Why did we decide to do it?

• Over the past few years we aquired new strands of work at Huddlecraft. Great in many ways, but when each strand has multiple possible outcomes at any one moment, there is very little that is certain or guaranteed. And of course the universe is busily serving up its own uncertainties too.
• These compounding pressures that meant ‘dangerous’ or ‘worst case’ scenarios felt closer than we would have liked at times in 2022. The only way through was to find a way to proactively navigate. We needed a way to look at each uncertainty, but also a way to look at how they were interacting.

🎥 How did it go?

• I started a navigation document to create clarity for everyone in the team about what was going on, and to keep the process of navigating the uncertainties transparent as we went along. I’ve turned this into a template that others can use, and that we can use again to take a more proactive, ongoing approach to navigating uncertainty.
• Looking back (from somewhat greener climbs) I can see how much it helped us move through a really stressful time.
• I could definitely have looked more deeply at how others navigate uncertainty, but on this occassion I had fairly strong intuition about what to do, and not much time, so I went with my energy.
• It felt very vulnerable to hold responsibility in these circumstances, and it also felt vulnerable to keep things transparent and open. But the only way through this kind of discomfort is through it.
• We went through a series of review points where we came back to the navigation doc to update it, review where we were landing in different scenarios, look at implications, and get clear on our priorities.
• With some water now under the bridge, I can see that I personally learnt a lot — and discovered some new depths of resilience and adaptability along the way.

🎓 What did we learn?

• Different people have different tolerances for this kind of stress and pressure, and different preferences for how to navigate through it. Some people might want full transparency, others might just want to be shielded from the reality.
• Advice from others about what to do in challenging circumstances can be conflicting or opposing. Someone might tell you to ‘conduct the full process with total transparency’ whilst another will say something like ‘in order to conduct an anti-oppressive and trauma informed process you will need to recognise that some people in your organisation might want or need to be shielded from some information and responsibility’.
• When faced with conflicting advice, you can either choose — ideologically — which side you’re on. Or you can recognise that there is probably value in both pieces of advice, and that neither were born out of the very specific current circumstances of your organisation. So, no advice is a substitute for a bespoke decision about what to do!
• I think I’m moving away from all ideological binaries like ‘our organisation values transparency’. If your organisation values transparency, regardless of context or the specifics of the circumstances, perhaps that’s not super smart. I absolutely value transparency as a general rule. But there is probably some wisdom to less transparency in certain conditions. Over and above everything else I’m learning that I value development of emotional maturity, experience and wisdom that allows people to make context-informed choices (instead of solely ideology-informed choices).
• It’s important that when you come to do this kind of navigation work (whether it’s putting together a navigation document, or working from that document with a team) that you’re able to do this work calmly. Heated or emotionally-charged energy just does not work (and can be toxic). This does not mean there shouldn’t be space for these feelings. This is essential too, but it’s not the same space.
• In an ideal world the folk that are holding most responsibility for navigation should be people that are able to ‘hold’ the discomfort and uncertainty (whilst supporting others to gradually step in and learn).
• I found it very helpful to continually re-ground our discussions in the idea that whiechever outcome became a reality, we would find a way through with integrity, humanity and kindness.
• I learnt that we should be doing this regularly as a practice, even in good times, like cash flow (although it’s always easier to say these things than to prioritise all of them).

👉 How will we take it forward in 2023?

• I’ve created a copy of the navigation template for 2023 to map the uncertainties we already know about, and keep them from fading into the background. We’ll work through this doc as a team as part of planning for the year, and put all review points in the calendar ahead of time.
• Extend the cash flow check in to include a navigation check in, and then include a navigation update to the team along with the finance update.

🤔 Remaining questions?

• If we were to arrive in similar circumstances again at Huddlecraft, what would we do differently? What would we do in the same way?
• In similarly challenging circumstances would we want to match the same degree of transparency for everyone in the team? Is it an important embodiement of our values? What if our team was a larger size and there were some people that wanted to be shielded from that responsibility? Would we want to do this? Or is it important to us to invite people to share responsibility, as we do in our peer groups?

🍭 Tips for others who’d like to do this?

• Here’s the navigation template. Feel free to use and adapt as you wish.
• Listen to your gut. When you hear it whispering an alarm, that’s definitely the time to pay attention. Don’t ignore it until it’s screaming DANGER!!!!!
• Do think of this as navigating interacting uncertainties, instead of thinking only about risks and threats. Managing risk is a big part of this conversation, but the language can feel alarming and reductive rather than generative. It feels important to remember that uncertainties can interact in lots of different ways — which can also create opportunities.
• Really face into those worst case scenarios and know what steps you would take. Getting familiar with these scenarios will de-arm them, allowing you to feel into a rooted sense that whatever happens, you’ll be OK. It might not be ideal, but no one will die. It will be OK! Feel the realisation that you can carry out even the worst case scenario with care, integrity and humanity.
• Don’t forget the best case scenario! Paint that picture and let it drive you. It could also be fruitful to put your North Star (purpose, mission, vision, whatever you use to guide your direction) closer to the heart of this process, to help everyone stay anchored to the bigger picture motivation, particularly while the water is choppy.
• Do make space for feelings, but find ways to create a calm environment when you want to do practical work on navigation. I don’t mean to say that feelings can’t come into navigation space, or that space for feelings isn’t important work, just that panic and emotional charge need releasing: and this doesn’t usually happen at the same time as analytical thinking, option creation and planning.
• Give thought to who you’re involving, at what stage and for what purpose. The right way to go about this will be totally specific to your context.

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