Turkey: The Coup has Failed, the Future’s Bleak.

It now seems certain that the so-called military coup in Turkey is destined to fail.

In fact, this has been obvious for quite some time. Had this been a coup with the backing of the entire military hierarchy, the situation would have been much clearer, and control much more obvious, no more than two hours after the coup began. We would have heard from the senior commanders of the armed forces early on, airports would have been properly secured, state TV would quickly have been neutralised or converted and the military presence on the streets and at key locations in Istanbul and Ankara would have been much greater than it was.

NATO would have been informed by the Turkish military command and the US State Department would have issued a clear and unambiguous statement. Moreover, the military would have appointed a chief spokesman, a politician or general, who would be anointed head of a ‘transitional’ government-in-waiting. Erdogan’s call for the people to take to the streets would have gone unheeded, or been so limited that the military could have ignored it.

The final proof of its failure came with Erdogan’s arrival at the airport. This would have been impossible had the coup been a military and not a factional one.

The great folly of this failed coup will be revealed in the coming hours and days. There is no possibility of Turkey to emerging from it improved, more democratic, more tolerant of diversity.

I’ve been quite good at predictions recently, so it gives me no pleasure to suggest the following:

Erdogan, already a despotic, authoritarian figure, with Islamist inclinations, now has every necessary excuse to increase his power at the expense of the Turkish people’s democracy and constitution.

What follows will be a Stalin-esque programme of purges in the military and crackdowns on local and media opponents of his regime.

Constitutional reform, finally curtailing the military’s power and doing away with the Ataturkist commitment to secularism and a separation of powers, will be passed and painted as reform necessary for the safety and security of the Turkish ‘democracy’.

Whether the coup faction was Gülenist or not is irrelevant. (Erdogan ousted most of them some time ago.) That’s the line that will be taken. Political opponents will be hounded out and branded sympathisers or collaborators with Goldstein — err, Gülenist insurrectionists.

The PKK will come under renewed and sustained attack in the name of re-establishing security. Political opposition and dissenters will be quashed in the name of the new narrative.

Turkey will become, in all but name, an authoritarian state.