Happy Income: Predicting the Future of Basic Income in Europe

WHAT IS BASIC INCOME
I attempt to understand and provide insight into a contemporary issue revolving the debate of basic income. This issue is getting more prominence in mainstream and social media. This heighten publicity is due to the emergence of Future of Work -combinations of increasing workplace automation, growing gig economy, widening income inequality, and declining economic mobility. It is predicted that the Future of Work will likely to displace a large population out of work. Therefore, this increases the likelihood of social unrest, among other negative social implications.

The concept of basic income (also known as universal income) is a payment made to all adult individuals that allows people to meet their basic needs. It is made without any work or activity tests.

There are three main components of basic income:
First, it is universal. It is paid automatically to all individuals (or all adult individuals) without a means/income test.
Second, it is unconditional. It is paid without conditions (for example, you do not need to report on your job search activity on the condition to receive social payment).
Third, it is adequate. It is set at a sufficient level to protect the general population against of going into poverty or hardship.

THE TOOLS

With a bit of creative re-organization of the OSEMN workflow, Data Journalism workflow, and Analytical Sociology framework above, I have developed a workflow that I will use through the this notebook to move the basic income debate in a more exploratory and insightful manners — a combination of data science (predictive analytics), journalism (capturing the latest news about basic income), and analytical sociology (basic income is essentially a sociological issue, and rightly so a need for sociological perspective).

The diagram below illustrates the OSEMN workflow in Yellow (OSEMI), and Data Journalism workflow and Analytical Sociology in Green (Contextualize).

THE Obtain, Scrub, Explore, Model, and Interpret worflow is fairly well-known in the data science industry, therefore I will not go into details. The part that I have creatively combined is the Data Journalism and Analytical Sociology, and it is all contained in Contextualize section. Throughout this notebook, as I explore the Dalia dataset (and importing new datasets) to continue on the following:

1. Understand current topic debate. While exploring the dataset, and surfacing patterns, I will put on the journalist and sociologist viewpoints of the world, and basic income.

2. Compare with other datasets or perspectives. If there are opportunities, I will start to explore into other datasets. This will be a time consuming exercise, however it will be worthwhile contribution to the basic income debate — from a different perspectives — therefore adding the richness to the debate.

3. Interpret predictive analytics outcome with human and social behavioural lens. I will invest a majority of my time here to unpack the information/ outcome from the predictive analaysis outcome based on the logistic regression, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forrest.

4. Sensemaking of the current topic. I hope this will provide some solid insights and conclusions to the basic income debate. From here, I will publish a Medium blogpost, in hope to extend this debate way into the future and add value for policy makers, and such.

PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF BASIC INCOME IN EUROPE

The 3 key questions we are trying to answer — the summarized version to be discussed in the next section (Project Outcome).

1. What is the possibility of predicting whether some will vote for or against basic income?

The answer is a definite yes. Random Forest and XGBoost have demonstrated most promising tools in predicting whether someone will vote for or against basic income.

2. What key factors that have significant influence on basic income voting outcome?

3. What is the future of basic income in the future of work?

There will be more pockets of experimentation on basic income all across the world, it is likely the western countries will continue to experiment and debate basic income. This is due to the fact that citizens in the western countries are more likely to be displaced or disrupted by workplace automation (e.g. robo finance advisor), growing gig economy (e.g. Uber, Task Rabbit), widening income inequality (the rich gets richer), and declining economic mobility.

CONTEXTUALIZING DATA

The long road that we have taken so far brings us back to the title of this notebook project — Happy Income? Predicting the Future of Basic Income in Europe — The answer to predicting part is a definite Yes. The happiness that basic income can bring to all European will require a bit more detour discussion to answer the third question of this project notebook: What is the future of basic income in the future of work?

There has been been numerous debates over the last five years all across the world due to the distruption of future of work. There are optimists who predict the future by looking backward in the renaissance to industrial revolution to information age. They predicted that the future of work will propel us forward just like the periods before us. There the less optimists who predict this time around, it is not the same the last transformtion periods because of the confluence of workplace automation (e.g. robo finance advisor), growing gig economy (e.g. Uber, Task Rabbit), widening income inequality (the rich gets richer), and declining economic mobility. The prediction is becoming muddier for the society at large.

This is where the debate of basic income emerges (or re-emerged). Put simply, in a few words, basic income provides a universal income for all to be able to survive in this the future of work — while we are still trying to figure what it means. This is the insurance for an orderly transition.

The follwing few key topics are derived from my long road taken so far — while analysing, exploring and predicting the Dalia dataset — I keep thinking like a journalist (what does it mean? where can explore more? what’s the next lead?), and sociologist (what’s the grounding here? what’s societal consequences? Why this behaviour surfaces?). Let’s begin.

I Know, Therefore I Care

American Sociologist C. Wright Mills described sociological imagination as “the awareness of the relationship between personal experience and the wider society”. In the context of basic income awareness, I would interpret as this: The more we are aware of the benefits (and costs) of basic income, the more we are able to start to think about others. The ‘what-if’ questions start to appear. What if I am in a position in the future I need support of basic income (about self). What if someone I know who can benefit from basic income, while he/she is down and out (a close friend). What if we all can reduce financial strain for all (the greater society).

The awareness of basic income is the key in predicting whether someone will vote for basic income. This is an important factor to consider for pro basic income policy makers to focus on build awareness in several ways:

1. Educate key influencers — they will be able to spread basic income information the quickest, and not to mention most influential (they are after all most trusted).
2. Make basic income information accessible — adding information is like adding votes. The more information is being loaded into someone minds, the higher their awareness and the likelihood of supporting basic income.
3. Segment information dissemination — the significance test has shown that all factors such as geography, gender, job status, and others (except education level) have significance differences of basic income awareness. I suspect they have differences because the way they receive, consume and interpret information are different because of their psychographic differences. The pro basic income policy makers should tailor-made information in accordance to the preference of each psychographic preferences. For example, for younger age group, social media and interactive dialogue will be the way. Where else, for older age group, focus messages on reduce anxiety about income support, and perhaps on basic in supporting their children or grandchildren.

A Shared Humanity

I believe the basic income brings the good in us, not just good for us. Why am I saying this? Based on the predictive modelling, the factors that rank #2 (reduce anxiety), and #2 (more equality). The Dalia respondents have given us a glimpse of the collective consciousness of European as a society, and how they want to treat each other — well and equally. Most of us do not know what the future will hold for us in the future of work (or no work or limited work security at all). A basic, universal income can help to reduce society anxiety, as each of us wrestle with the ever uncertain, volatile and complicated future. A basic, universal income treats every the same regardless of wealth, job status, etc. It is effectively a blind and blanket society benefits for all. Based on the results from the predicting modelling, the shared humanity is a very strong currency for policy makers to further the basic agenda. Here are some ways to do so:

1. Focus on collectiveness contribution as the key message. The policy maker should drive basic income as something that we are contributing equally, and as an outcome shared equally.
2. Build in greater transparency in basic income distribution with focus on making sure the most needy given more care, not in financial assistance (that will go against basic income equality), but in advisory on opitimizing and proper use of basic income.

Self Interest

This will be counterintuitive. We are human, and there is always some sense of self-interest among us. Basic income is equally shared, and that for you and me. There is a powerful sentiment that policy makers can tap into. The self-interest nature of human can help to swing non-supporter towards supporting basic income.

Experimentation Fuels Greater Basic Income Interest, Awareness, and Policy Refinement

The recent stoppage of Finland experimentation with basic income has fueled more debate about basic income. Although the news is dissappointing, it helps to spur rethinking about what else can we do.